Sunday, September 13, 2009

Delmon Young = Jeff Francoeur?



While Denard Span is drawing favorable comparisons to Kenny Lofton, Delmon Young is drawing comparisons to Jeff Francoeur, and that's probably not a good thing. Francoeur was recently traded to the Mets, and while the change of scenery might be doing him some good (he's batting a decent .302/.332/.484 in a relatively small sample size of 232 plate appearances), it doesn't look like those numbers are sustainable. Like Young, Francoeur lacks patience at the plate and doesn't have much power, though unlike Delmon he is at least a decent defensive outfielder. Both are former first-round draft picks who were rushed to the majors by their respective organizations for various reasons (Young, Francoeur, and Carlos Gomez may all be exhibit A on why rushing position players through the system generally isn't a good idea).

Francoeur is a year older than Delmon and made his major-league debut for the Braves at the tender age of 21, batting a respectable .300/.336/.549 with a 125 OPS+. Delmon was only 20 when he made his debut for the Rays in 2006, and batted a decent .317/.336/467, though with a less-impressive 108 OPS+. Unfortunately, they both fell off of a proverbial cliff after that. The two have put up remarkably similar numbers since 2007:


Francoeur Young
2007 .293/.338/.444 .288/.316/.404
2008 .239/.294/.359 .290/.336/.405
2009 .272/.307/.407 .265/.287/.384

This decline in production isn't terribly surprising, since Young and Francoeur have never displayed much plate discipline. Delmon in particular chases about 41% of pitches outside the zone, while making contact only 54% of the time. They also tend to strike out a lot while drawing few walks, with Young and Francoeur posting respective 0.21 and 0.27 BB/K ratios. Striking out a lot in and of itself isn't necessarily a problem, since most sluggers tend to strike out pretty frequently. It's a lack of pitch selection and recognition combined with a high whiff rate that turns many promising major-leaguers into insurance salesmen.

Both Young and Francoeur are still relatively young and it's obviously too early to write them off just yet. But neither one has shown any improvement in pitch selection or recognition over their brief careers, and neither will see any significant improvement in their production until they do (and really, in Francoeur's case, there isn't much reason to think he even understands the value of plate discipline). Delmon has at least stopped chasing pitches outside the strike zone so much, but he's also hacking away at pitches inside the zone a lot more without actually making contact. Consequently, he's actually walking less and striking out more without seeing any improvement in his production.

The Twins have played with four outfielders all season long, but recently Ron Gardenhire has expressed a desire to find a permanent position for Denard Span. That just isn't going to happen with the crowded outfield situation, and the Twins will have some very difficult decisions to make in the offseason. Michael Cuddyer is putting up some of the best numbers of his career, and he will get paid $18 million over the next two years, so he would be a logical choice to dangle as trade bait. However, there probably won't be much interest in an expensive, injury-prone corner outfielder on the wrong side of 30. Besides, the organization tends to value intangibles like leadership and card tricks, so Cuddy probably isn't going anywhere. Carlos Gomez has actually been much worse at the plate than Delmon, but his tremendous range in the outfield makes even the crappiest of pitchers look decent. Since the Twins tend to preach pitching to contact, the better defender is the more valuable of two crappy hitters. Delmon then logically becomes the odd man out, and indeed his name has been mentioned in trade rumors almost as soon as he came over from Tampa Bay. Rumors that Delmon is stubborn and difficult to for the coaching staff to work with certainly aren't helping his cause, either. Still, the Twins gave up an awful lot when they acquired him from the Rays, and he hasn't even entered his prime, so the front office might not be ready to give up on him just yet.
I doubt this is the first time Morny has had problems with his back (Gardy did make some sort of offhand remark about it during spring training). It would explain why he always puts up such Ruthian numbers early in the season but seemingly goes into hibernation after August 1st. Considering that he has also played 431 games on that awful turf, I would be more surprised if he doesn't suffer from some sort of chronic back trouble. The turf isn't going to be a problem when the Twins move into Target Field next year and that should help save Morny's back, provided it isn't serious enough to require surgery yet.
  • Nope, not drinking the Kool-Aid yet



Yeah, I know the Vikings won and they looked pretty good while doing it (well, in the second half, anyway). But come on, they beat the Browns. And let's not forget that Brett Favre usually gets off to a strong start, only to fade in the second half (or even worse, in the playoffs). Maybe things will be different this year, since he won't have to carry the team into the playoffs all by himself (that's what Adrian Peterson is for!), but I wouldn't count on it. Let's at least wait until December before calling the Favre experiment a resounding success. But in the meantime, feel free to marvel at the wonder that is Percy Harvin. And to laugh at the Bears (just not about Urlacher, that sucks).

2 comments:

Topper said...

Oh those card tricks, where would our team be without them? I'm surprised he hasn't tried to saw all of our rookie pitchers in half.

I don't call the Favre signing a success, but the Vikings are ridiculously stacked. We can't face the Bears or Packers soon enough to dispel any of this ridiculous talk that they actually stand a chance at the postseason compared to us.

She-Fan said...

What is it with back problems and the Twins' star players? Didn't Mauer have back problems at the beginning of the season? And now Morneau?

Post a Comment

Sorry, I am no longer accepting comments on this post.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.