Front-runners

Original entry posted here.




Now that the Arizona Cardinals are playing in the Super Bowl, there's been a lot of talk about how their fans are all bandwagoners. Cardinals fans have been mercilessly mocked by bloggers and the mainstream media alike because apparently they didn't exist before this season (that's not exactly true, they do have at least one devoted fan).  A lot of people are wondering where all of these people have been in the last 20 years, when the Cards were terrible.  Because, you know, true fans stick with their teams no matter what, through the good times and bad.  Neither rain, nor snow, nor a 13-game losing streak prevents real fans from cheering on their beloved teams.

I admit it, we Minnesotans are notorious front-runners.  I remember about a decade ago, when

the Twins were routinely losing at least 90 games and the Dome was like a ghost town.  Back in those days you could actually sit there and count the number of people in the seats (which was often more interesting than the action on the field).  Sometimes I look at all the people in the stands now and wonder where they were before 2002.  The Twins aren't the only ones who've had to deal with fickle Minnesota fans, either.  The Timberwolves continue to struggle to fill seats, even though they had the best record in the NBA in January (yes, you read that right).  Although Minny is considered a football town, the Vikings have had a lot of trouble selling tickets to games these past eight years, when they would barely finish above the Lions. This season, of course, when the Vikes made a big splash in the free-agent market, and then went on to win ten games and make the playoffs, you couldn't even buy tickets if you wanted to.  Fickle, fickle, fickle.

The exception, of course, is the Wild.  Wild games always sell out, no matter how pathetic the team might be.  It's not just because Minnesotans are crazy about hockey, either.  It's because we have already suffered the loss of one hockey team. We're not going to make that mistake again.

It's not that we only support our teams when they're winning. We love them all anyway, even when they suck. We wouldn't spend so much time complaining about those losers if we didn't care about them. It's just that we Minnesotans are cheap a thrifty bunch.  We're not going to spend $60 a pop for nosebleed seats to watch the Vikings stink up the field.  Not when we can watch them stink from the comforts of our own homes (or not.  And if the game does get blacked out, well, that's all the better).  And why should we?  If the team is terrible, but people go to the games anyway, the front office has no incentive to make improvements.  If people continue to buy a crappy product, management will continue to produce it. By boycotting games, we fans are sending a strong message that we disapprove of the quality of the product on the field and the idiotic moves the front office has made.  Eventually, this boycotting pays off and the front office puts together a quality product (or moves it to a more lucrative market, whichever comes first).  It's not a coincidence that the Twins, Vikings, Wild, and now even the Timberwolves have finally put together winning teams.  We fans haven't given them much of a choice.    

I also have no problem with people who finally get fed up and just give up on their teams.  I mean really, how long are fans of the Lions, Pirates, Chiefs, and Maple Leafs supposed to suffer?  These teams have been dishing out emotional abuse on their devoted fanbases for decades, and I don't blame these people one bit if they simply refuse to take it anymore. Good for them, sometimes a divorce is the only way to fix a bad marriage.

Of course, when and if your team decides to win again, I'm sure they will be more than happy to welcome you (and your money) back into the fold. No hard feelings, and no questions asked.    

Our Go-Go is growing up

Original entry posted here.

• Carlos Gomez is learning some plate discipline during winter ball

According to this article in today's Pioneer Press, our Gomez is learning to be more patient at the plate. Apparently he's drawn 10 walks in 21 games during his stint in the Dominican Winter League, which is a significant improvement considering he drew only 25 in 153 games with the Twins this season. Why, it seems like just yesterday he was chasing pitches a mile outside the strike zone.  And swinging out of his shoes on top of it.  While his .364 OBP is still less than ideal, it's much better then the anemic .298 he posted last season.   He still strikes out an average of once per game, though, which is the same rate he struck out last season so he hasn't improved much there.

Go-Go is, and probably always will be, a free-swinger in the same mold as Vladimir Guerrero

and our own Kirby Puckett.  Puckett used to drive me crazy since he would swing at anything and everything whether it was anywhere near the zone or not, but he had such quick hands that he would make contact more often than not.   Guerrero is the same way, but he has a lot of power and his strike zone is often described as "from his nose to his toes".  Gomez, on the other hand, simply hacks away without having much to show for it.  He is so focused on swinging away and trying to come up with a big hit, that he can't accurately judge the location of the pitch (or even what type of pitch it is).  He's been putting in a lot of work in winter ball, focusing on taking pitches and developing his eye at the plate.  It will be interesting to see if all this work pays off.

Considering that our Gomez is only a kid (he just turned twenty-three) and it's only his second full year in the major leagues, I think it's much too early to give up on him yet.  Clearly he still has a lot of growing up to do, and I think plate discipline will come with maturity.  Even a slight improvement over last season's numbers (.258/.296/.360 with 7 HRs) would be enough to leave him batting in the ninth spot.  If he could double his number of walks, and cut his strikeouts in half, he might even be moved up to the leadoff spot (especially if Denard Span regresses).  At any rate, his excellent fielding skills more than make up for his anemic offensive production (which makes it very difficult for Gardy to sit Go-Go when he's struggling at the plate).  Gomez's speed also makes him an invaluable part of the lineup, as he is always a threat to steal whenever he does manage to get on base, and can often beat out groundballs (most of his 149 hits last season came from infield hits).   If nothing else, his antics rattle opposing pitchers and make them more likely to make mistakes to the guys hitting behind him.

If he could just learn to hit, Gomez himself would make the Santana trade worthwhile. 

Haterade

Original entry posted here.

• Rivalries are fun

Like the Yankees/Red Sox, Cubs/Cardinals, and Dodgers/Giants, the Twins and the White Sox have developed their own rivalry over the course of the past decade.  Although the two teams have been divisional rivals for years, it wasn't until both started to become relevant that things began to heat up.  These games are always exciting regardless of where the teams are in the standings.  There's all kinds of bizarre incidents, heartbreaking losses, and thrilling come-from-behind wins.  And, of course, it's just not a rivalry without the requisite trash talk from both sides.

Games against divisional opponents always carry a special weight, but games against the Pale Hose are different.  While Cleveland is a tough opponent, the Twins haven't had much success against them (except for last year) so the rivalry is kind of one-sided.  Although things sometimes get chippy with the Tigers and the Royals, neither team really has the cast of characters that makes games against the Sox so intriguing:

Ozzie Guillen is the most entertaining figure in sports. Period.  He always says whatever he thinks and doesn't care if anyone likes it or not.  And more often than not, he's right.  He was right to complain that the Cubs get treated like the Yankees by the Chicago media, while the Sox are treated more like the Mets (it might have something to do with the fact that the Tribune owned the Cubs at the time).  He was also painfully honest when asked about a potential reunion of the 2005 World Series Sox.  Whatever you want to say about Guillen as a person,  there's no denying that as a manager he is a brilliant strategist and is obviously liked and respected by the guys in the clubhouse (well, except maybe by this guy).   And no matter  what he says,  I hope Kenny Williams has the good sense to  never, ever, ever, ever fire Ozzie.

Speaking of controversial figures, A.J. Pierzynski has to be the most hated man in baseball.

  He's done something dirty to almost every team in the league, and fanbases everywhere are always vocal about their disapproval.  Having said that, I have to admit that I don't really hate A. J.  I find his antics amusing for the most part, and it would be hypocritical of me to criticize him now for things he did all the time as a Twin.  But more importantly, he was the centerpiece of the greatest trade in Twins history.  I cannot find it in my heart to hate the man who brought us the joy that is Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano (and, to a lesser extent, Boof Bonser).  Oh, and his departure made room for the superstar that is Joe Mauer to come up, which just makes it even harder to hate A. J.

The only White Sock I can muster any angry feelings for is Jim Thome, and that's simply because he's a Twin-killer.   I've seen his career numbers against the Twins, and I'm not going to post them because they make me ill.  All I'm going to say is that he hits like a modern-day Babe Ruth off of any and all Twins pitchers.  But I can't really say that I hate Thome either; he's a good guy and he's very good at what he does.  I mostly just feel a sense of dread whenever he comes to the plate, because I know something bad is about to happen.

No, there are really only two sports franchises I actually hate:  The Green Bay Packers and the Vancouver Canucks.  Hating the Packers (and their fans) is obligatory if you root for the Vikings, although this year's team didn't inspire the usual feelings of animosity.  The Packers under Brett Favre were very hateable, and their fans were the most obnoxious and arrogant of any fanbase in major league sports.  But now that the Gunslinger is gone, the Packers are much harder to hate.  Aaron Rogders just doesn't inspire the sort of frothing vitriol that Fav-ruh did and I actually kind of feel sorry for the poor guy.  Besides, Packer fans have been awfully quiet this year.  Gee, I wonder why...

I guess when I really think about it all of my sports-related hate is reserved for the Vancouver Canucks.  I HATE them.  They like to play dirty, and there's a palpable sense of animosity between the players on the ice.   Although the Wild  have typically dominated the Canucks, things are different this season.  They have yet to win a single game against Vancouver and currently trail them by two points in the standings.  To make matters worse, they went out and signed former Wild star Pavol Demitra and will probably go after Marian Gaborik as well.

So which Canuck do I hate the most?  Mattias Ohlund, of course. Because he did this to Mikko Koivu:




Go to hell, Vancouver. 

What to do with young Mr. Young

Original entry posted here.

• Delmon Young shows up at TwinsFest and he's in shape!

I will take this as a good sign.  It's an understatement to say that Young is not exactly a fan favorite.  Although he's behaved himself for the most part, he got off to a very slow start and isn't one of the best defensive outfielders I've ever seen.  To make matters worse, the players who were shipped off to Tampa Bay ended up playing an integral part of the Ray's' amazing run.  Matt Garza is becoming a superstar, and Jason Bartlett provided a significant upgrade in the infield defense.  Watching the Rays play in the World Series while our own team didn't even make the playoffs was kind of tough.  Coupled with the fact that his own manager expressed doubts about him as an everyday player, and it's not surprising that so many fans were demanding a trade.

Although I didn't think the trade made much sense in the first place, I could at least understand the

reasoning behind it.  The Twins were in need of another power right-handed bat and they had pitching to spare.  And even though Matt Garza had a great arm, his inability to control his emotions was having a negative impact on his effectiveness (and apparently the coaching staff was losing patience with him).  However, what made the trade seem questionable is that Young's numbers (.288/.316/.408) were not good enough to be considered a fair trade for someone like Garza. It was obvious that Young isn't really a power hitter; he's more like Raul Ibanez: a slap hitter with some power who gets on base a lot and drives in a lot of runs. These types of hitters are not that difficult to find, and certainly aren't worth giving up a prized pitching prospect.

Having said all that, I think the Twins have been smart to hang onto Young, at least through this season. It's not likely that they would've gotten anything of value for him in a trade, since he didn't put up great numbers and it would just look as though he's a problem the Twins are trying to dump off on someone else. I do think that Young has a lot of upside, given his age, and could become a valuable part of the lineup if he puts forth the effort to develop his talent.  He's at least aware of the fact that his numbers were disappointing last season, and has expressed a willingness to work hard and improve.  And who knows?  Maybe competing for the starting job will give him the motivation he needs.    

Real as Radke

Original entry posted here.

• Brad Radke will be inducted into Twins' Hall of Fame

It's not a big surprise that longtime fan-favorite RHP Brad Radke is going to be inducted into the Twins' Hall of Fame in a pregame ceremony on July 11th. Radke was the anchor of the starting rotation for 12 seasons, and was really the only decent starter the Twins had for the longest time. Although he was never considered a big star by anyone outside of Minnesota, he did make one All-Star appearance in 1998 and finished third in Cy Young voting once in 1997 (behind Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson).  As a soft-tossing righty, Radke never really had what you would consider dominant stuff.  He was, however, famous for his circle changeup that changed speeds during its trajectory (and was once clocked at 56 mph). It was this changeup that he reportedly taught a young, struggling Johan Santana and, well, we all know how that story ends.

Radke had pretty decent stuff, though he never threw particularly hard ( I doubt he ever hit more than 90 mph on the radar gun).   He was mostly known for his excellent control, walking only 445 batters in his career.  Unfortunately, he also had a reputation for giving up the gopher ball, having surrendered 72 homers in his first two seasons (although he was much stingier later on, giving up a grand total of 326 in his career).  At one point there was even a commercial for a video game that proclaimed itself to be "real as Radke" that showed him watching one of his pitches leave the ballpark (I can't remember which game this was, nor can I find any video anywhere).

It's really too bad that the Twins were so awful for most of his career, and he had to retire

without ever winning a championship.  Radke actually pitched well in most of his postseason starts, his overall record is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA.  His final playoff appearance was in game 3 of the 2006 ALDS, when he gave up two 2-run homers in four innings.  The Twins went on to lose 8-3, and get swept by Oakland.  The 2006 season was one of the worst of Radke's career, and it's obvious that his shoulder was really bothering him.  He suffered a torn labum, and then a stress fracture, that had sidelined him for several weeks during the regular season.  Although he was still fairly young at the time (34), Radke decided to hang it up rather than undergo surgery to repair his shoulder.  He announced his retirement at a press conference on December 19, 2006.

• At least somebody is going to miss Dennys Reyes

Joe Christensen wrote a nice piece on former situational lefty Dennys Reyes, aka The Big Sweat.  I have to admit, I'm going to miss him, too.  Don't get me wrong, it makes sense for the Twins to let him go.  Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares could easily fill his spot in the bullpen, at a much lower price (probably more effectively, too).  Reyes has reportedly drawn interest from the A's, Mets, and Dodgers, so he'll probably get a fairly lucrative contract from somewhere.  Unfortunately for him, it'll likely only be half of the 3-year, $12 million he would command in a better market.

Reyes had been a journeyman pitcher until he signed a contract with the Twins prior to the 2006 season.  He had seen time as both a starter and relief pitcher, but struggled a lot and was bounced around between eight different teams in as many years.  It wasn't until he signed with the Twins that he found his niche as a lefty specialist, and has been a very effective one at that.  He's been very good against some of the toughest lefties in the American League, holding the likes of Bobby Abreu, Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, and Jason Giambi to a tidy .202/.250/.287 line (except for Jim Thome, but few Twins pitchers have ever had much success against him. Hence the "I Hate You Jim Thome" tag).  He's starting to become more hittable, though, posting a 2.33 ERA with three blown saves last season, so the Twins are wise to let him sign elsewhere.

On a side note, Reyes kind of reminds me of Goldy the Gopher.  Perhaps they were separated at birth?

Number 33, baby!!!

Original entry posted here.

It turns out I'm number 33 on the MLBlogs leader board (thanks for pointing that out, Julia)!  Wow, this blog is getting off to a fast start!  So, like fellow MLBloggers Julia and Jimmy, I have decided to dedicate my ranking to a noteworthy Twin who shares the same number.  In this case, number 33 belongs to our big Canadian slugger, first baseman Justin Morneau. 

Justin, or Johnny Canuck, if you will, has been an invaluable part of the Twins organization since he was called up in 2005.  He's a career .281/.348/.498 hitter, and has never hit fewer than 20 homers in a season.  He's the first Twin since Gary Gaetti to finish with 30+ homers in back-to-back seasons, and the first since Harmon Killebrew to have three straight seasons of 100+ RBI and 20+ homers. Last year, he had one of the best seasons of his career, even though his power numbers were down a bit (most likely because he had no legitimate power threat hitting behind him).  He hit .300/.374/.499 with only 23 homers, but finished second in the AL with 129 RBI.  Even more incredible is that he put up these numbers with guys trying to pitch around him (he was second in AL in intentional walks, with 16).  Had he not suffered such a terrible slump during the final few weeks of the season, he probably would've led the team to a playoff berth (and his second MVP award).

Oh, and his defense isn't too shabby, either.

Justin is most famous for stealing awards from other people.  Most notably, he stole the 2006

MVP from Derek Jeter (I'll admit, I think Jeter probably deserved it more, too.  Actually, Joe Mauer probably deserves the MVP more than Morneau, but that's for another post).  This year, he stole the Home Run Derby from Josh Hamilton.  Hamilton hit an amazing 28 dingers in the first round, but Johnny Canuck proved that stamina wins over showmanship, outhitting him 5-3 in the final round. And the funniest part?  Morneau wasn't even initially invited!  He was asked at the last minute after Vladimir Guerrero, A-Rod, and pretty much everybody else declined to participate.

At least he managed to win the Tip O'Neill award without any controversy (although there are probably some unhappy hockey fans).

As one of the three Twins representatives in the 2008 All-Star Game, he saved us all from a 20+ inning nightmare by scoring the game-winning run.  On a shallow sac fly.  Not bad for a guy who runs like Ruben Sierra.

Other fun facts about Justin:  he was born in New Westminster, British Columbia.  He used to play hockey as well as baseball, and won the 1998 Memorial Cup as the third goaltender for the Portland Winterhawks.  He wears #33 in honor of boyhood hero, goaltender Patrick Roy.  He was drafted by the Twins as a catcher in the third round of the 1999 amateur draft, but was quickly shifted to first.  And sorry ladies, as of January 10th he is a married man, having tied the knot with longtime girlfriend (and Minnesota native) Krista Martin at a church in Edina.

Thank you, dear readers, for making this post possible.  Apparently there are a lot more of you out there than I thought!
       

Ballpark gimmicks are lame

Original entry posted here.


While was watching the AFC Championship game on Sunday, I noticed that Steelers fans were waving these:

Ugh (sorry Kevin).  Of course, I can't complain too much, because they look an awful lot like these:

As a Twins fan, I apologize for inflicting the Homer Hanky upon an unsuspecting world.  I'm sorry!  It's just...we got carried away!  It was so long since the Twins had even made the playoffs, let alone the World Series. It was an exciting time, and we had no idea when, or if, we would have anything to celebrate again (our other sports franchises have been pretty pathetic too, you know).

I refuse to wave the Homer Hanky, by the way.  It looks like we're surrendering, with the sea of white flags waving.  I refuse to surrender! WE'RE GOING TO WIN, DAMMIT!!! GO TWINS!!11!!1!

Sorry,  At least the Homer Hanky isn't as bad as Thunderstix.

If you feel a need to bang large plastic phallic objects together to cheer for your team, then GO TO A BASKETBALL GAME!!! Noisy things like this have no business at a baseball game.  Cowbells are pretty obnoxious, too, but I'll give Rays fans a pass since their team didn't give them much to cheer about for the last decade.

The Rally Monkey has got to go.  God, I hate this thing:

                                                      Oops, wrong picture.

                                                       That's better.

Doesn't this constitute animal cruelty?  Where's PETA when you need them?

I have to say, though, whoever invented the Blackout is a genius.

The Kiss Cam has to be the lamest of the lame gimmicks.  I thought we were intelligent baseball fans here in Twins Territory (aside from the hanky thing anyway), but even we are not immune from this abomination.  Look, I get it.  MLB wants to reach a wider audience, and it thinks reaching out to female fans will accomplish this goal.  The problem is, the type of women who love the Kiss Cam aren't really interested in baseball.  They're the pink hats, the types who go to games to impress guys but want to leave before the seventh inning stretch. To make matters worse, this kind of crap simply annoys diehard fans such as myself.

The NHL has an interesting use for the Kiss Cam, though. I approve!  MLB should institute this application immediately!  Who doesn't want to see the M&MVP boys kiss?

Never mind, it looks like the White Sox already beat us to it.

  

To re-sign Joe, or not to re-sign Joe

Original entry posted here.

• Should the Twins try to lock up Joe Mauer into a long-term deal?

This is the question that has been weighing on a lot of fans' minds lately.  Some people think it's a good idea.  Some don't (see the comment section, this is why I usually turn the fan comments section off). Let's examine Mauer's career numbers, and weigh the pros and cons of signing him to a big contract.

Pros:  On the surface, it looks like signing Mauer is a no-brainer.  He is arguably the best defensive catcher in baseball, he's won the batting title twice (no other AL catcher in history has done this), and he handles the pitching staff well.  He's a fan favorite and a hometown hero.  All of this looks good, but when you really break down the numbers it becomes obvious how remarkable Joe is.

Career-wise, Mauer is a .317/.399/.457 hitter with an OPS of .856.   These numbers are very respectable for any position, but particularly amazing for a catcher.  People tend to forget this is the the most  physically demanding job in baseball, which is why most catchers have such anemic offensive production.  Mauer's patience at the plate is legendary, he has 292 career walks vs. 233 strikeouts and probably has one of the sweetest swings in baseball.

Other fun facts:  last year Mauer's VORP was 55.5, his RAA was 43.0, and his 4.88 WPA led the league for position players.  Coupled with the fact that he had to babysit a rookie pitching staff (which, by the way, he helped lead to a 4.18 ERA), and  it is clear that Mauer is in an elite class all by himself.

Cons:  Mauer does not have a great health history.  He missed most of his rookie season with a knee injury.  In 2007, he was limited to a mere 88 starts due to a lingering leg problem that led his teammates to question his toughness. And there are reports that he isn't going to be ready for spring training after having kidney surgery this offseason. While Mauer did make 147 starts last season, it's clear that he hasn't completely put his history behind him.  This is  obviously a big risk to take for someone who is going to command a lot of money.

Some would argue that Mauer's lack of power makes him expendable.  While it's true that he only has 44 home runs, and has never hit more than 13 in a single season, I think power is overrated in this case.  A player with such a high OBP and low number of strikeouts does not need to hit for much power.  Someone like Justin Morneau, who strikes out nearly twice as often, needs to hit at least 20+ homers to justify keeping his spot in the lineup.  While the perfect hitter hits for average and power (Albert Pujols comes to mind) such players are rare and I would take a guy who makes contact a lot and tries to get on base over someone who hits a lot of dingers but strikes out more often than not.

Of course, there is the problem that Mauer's contract extension would eat up a considerable amount of payroll.  Although the Twins are moving into Target Field, and will enjoy a substantial increase in revenue, they aren't going to have the sort of unlimited funds available to them that larger-market teams do.  Mauer would likely command an extension in the neighborhood of 8 years and $150 million, and a deal like that would restrict other moves the team could make.  

The Verdict:  Even though he will cost a lot of money, and he's a huge risk given his injury history, signing Mauer to a long-term deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins.  They really can't afford to lose his bat in the lineup, since it's clear that there's no way the team would've scored 829 runs last season without him.  And they would have one of the best catchers in baseball while he's in his prime. Given his history, though, and the money he's likely to want, I would be extremely surprised if the Twins manage to sign him.  More likely, he'll either be traded after next season or leave via free agency. 

• I've got a fever...

It's not official yet, but the Twins have reportedly agreed to a 2 year contract with DH/OF Jason Kubel.  None of the details have been released yet, but it will likely be similar to the deal Nick Punto got.  The move makes sense for the Twins, as it will help control costs and buy out the first year of Kubel's free agency (there is an option for a third year).   Kubel was put up some decent numbers last season, hitting .272/.335/.471 with 20 home runs.  He seems to have put the issues with his knees behind him and has settled into the DH role.  Whether or not this is a good deal depends on the money invested, but if he puts up similar numbers he'll be worth whatever they're paying him.

UPDATE:  Joe Christensen is reporting that Kubel's deal is two years, $7 million, with a $5 million option for 2011.  This is a great deal for the Twins, who will get a productive hitter for a reasonable price, and then can decide what to do with him when he's in his thirties.

In Other News...

Original entry posted here.

• Owners Vote to End Coin Flip

Baseball owners have come to their senses and realized that the coin flip is a stupid way to determine home-field advantage for tie-breaking games.  Instead, the rule will now be whoever wins the season series, as it should be.   It wasn't really fair that the Twins had to play  the tie-breaking game  against the Pale Hose at  U. S. Cellular Field, since they had won the beaten them during the regular season 10 games to 8.  Hopefully,this year the team will  have a large enough division lead that they won't have to worry about playing an extra playoff game.

Don't get me wrong, it's not the coin flip that cost the Twins the division title last year.  No, it was the fact that they couldn't manage to take 2 out of 3 from the lowly Royals in the series finale at the Dome. Francisco  Liriano was awful in the first  game, giving up  6 runs on 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings.  This start highlighted one of the problems he'd had all year, the inability to get his breaking pitches over for strikes.  The Royals hitters were clearly laying off of these and sitting on his fastball, which had neither the velocity nor the movement to be effective.  Glen Perkins was also less than stellar, but he exited after 5 innings with a 2-1 lead.  That Boof Bonser promptly threw away (note to Twins' relief corps:  if the team hands you a lead, no matter how small, it is your job to HANG ONTO IT!!!!  If you can't do that, then WHY ARE YOU EVEN IN BASEBALL???!!!).  Staff ace Scott Baker was the only one who managed to beat the Royals, pitching a shutout over 7 innings, but it wasn't enough since the Pale Hose also won and forced the tie-breaking game.

• More talk of the dreaded "c" word

After the Yankees' recent half-a-billion dollar free agent shopping spree, many small-market owners are now calling for a salary cap in baseball.  This is a terrible idea.  First of all, the Yankees are not guaranteed a playoff spot, let alone another World Series ring, just because they brought in a bunch of expensive free agents.  After all, it was the $43 million dollar Rays who won the AL East and contended for a World Series title last season.  Secondly, the Yankees only spend so much because they have billions in revenue that they have earned through making very smart business decisions (the YES network, for example).  Why should they be punished for that?

This whole argument that baseball needs a salary cap to create a more level playing field is a

convenient excuse for the real reason:  greed.  Right now, baseball players are the only professional athletes in the U. S. who get their fair share of the revenue  that  the league earns.  By instituting a salary cap, owners would get complete control over player's salaries and would get to pocket whatever revenue is left over.  Although it's tough to sympathize with a bunch of millionaires, I have to admit that it isn't fair for management  to keep all of the extra earnings while the players have to take whatever they're given. 

To make matters worse, the salary cap wouldn't necessarily make it any easier for small-market teams to retain their biggest stars.  If anything, it would make it even more difficult since teams have to dump larger contracts to make room under the cap. Case in point:  the Wild (in all likelihood) are about to lose two of their biggest stars, winger Marian Gaborik and goalie Niklas Backstrom, simply because they don't have enough space under the cap to re-sign them.  In order to clear space, the team would have to dump its biggest contracts:  Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette, Nick Schultz, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, and Owen Nolan.  All are huge contributors to the success of the team, and it really doesn't make sense to dump any of them just to retain a single player.  At least the Twins could, in theory, sign Joe Mauer to a 10-year, $200 million contract extension without having to trade Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan in the process.

Andruw Jones and I have a lot in common

 Original entry posted here.

We have the same body type.  We have the same level of athletic ability.  And now we are both unemployed.  The big difference between us, of course, Is that Jones's former employer is giving him a nice $21.1 million going-away present.  The only thing I got was the opportunity to do something else with my life.

The two-year $36.2 million deal the Dodgers gave Jones is widely considered one of the biggest busts in recent history, next to the Barry Zito fiasco.  Both deals were ill-advised to begin with, as both players were coming off career years that they were unlikely to repeat (although in Zito's defense, I don't think anyone expected him to be as awful as he's been.  There's also a chance that he might rebound, since his problems seem to be psychological). It's deals of these sort, when teams overpay for middling talent, and not the blockbuster deals for the likes of C. C. Sabathia that make it difficult for small-market teams to remain competitive.  Teams like, well, the Twins have never been able to afford to sign such marquee talent, so these types of deals don't affect them as much.  When mediocre players  like Jones get $16 million a year, it inflates the price of all free agents and makes it much more difficult for small-market teams to retain  their  talent.

•  Twins express interest in Brandon Lyon and Eric Gagne

Speaking of busts, the Twins have apparently contacted Eric Gagne's agent, Scott Boras,and have discussed contract terms.  It's no secret that Gagne has been awful after he was caught using PEDs, and is unlikely that he will ever return to his previous, dominant form.  However, if the Twins can get him for a deal similar to what the Indians gave Carl Pavano, it wouldn't be such a bad idea.


The Twins are also interested in Brandon Lyon, who might have more of an upside than

Gagne.  Although he was terrible last season, posting a 4.70 ERA with the Diamondbacks, he did have 26 saves. Lyon was one of the premier set-up men in the league, and at 29 is still young enough to rebound.  I wouldn't give him more than a 1-year deal, though.

The Twins' bullpen was definitely its achilles heel last season and set-up man Pat Neshek will be out at least until 2010 with Tommy-John surgery.  While rookie Jose Mijares was stellar in his 10 appearances last season, he had never advanced past AA ball until his September callup last year. Although he showed himself to be fearless in big spots, he is still very young and I don't feel comfortable handing him the set-up job just yet.  Either Gagne or Lyon would provide some much-needed depth in the bullpen, and would be worth the risk as long as they aren't very expensive.

• Holy crap, the Wolves beat the Suns!

They came back from a 10 point deficit!  On the road!  I don't know who these guys are and what they did with our basketball team, but as long as they  hid the bodies really well continue  playing  like this I really don't care.

Maybe they just got tired of the Gophers getting all the attention.

Starting Rotation or Law Firm?

Original entry posted here.

• Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins, & Blackburn, LLP
  

On a stop on the Twins' winter caravan yesterday, manager Ron Gardenhire unveiled his projected starting rotation for 2009.  Now, we all remember what happened the last time Gardy opened his mouth regarding next season's starters.  This time, however, there was little surprise and even less controversy.  As it stands, barring any sort of trade, this season's projected rotation is:  Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Nick Blackburn.  I have to say, I like this a  lot.   There's a nice balance  of lefties and righties, and the kids are all poised to improve on last season's quality showing.

There is no question that Scott Baker deserves the #1 spot, as he is quickly emerging as the staff ace.  Last season the hard-throwing righty finished 11-4, with a 3.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and led the team with 141 srikeouts.  Baker probably would've won at least six more games if not for a lack of run support (he was on the wrong end of numerous 1-0 losses) and the leaky bullpen that forgot how to make outs.  If he remains healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the season with over 200 strikeouts and 20 wins.

Francisco Liriano was an enigma at the start of last season.  He was coming off Tommy John

surgery, and it was uncertain whether he would even be able to pitch again, let alone return to his previous dominating form.  At first he was awful, going 0-3 with an 11.32 ERA, and it was  painfully obvious that he just wasn't ready to  pitch  in  the major leagues.  However,  he seemed to find himself down in AAA, going 6-1 and posting a sparkling 2.47 ERA upon his return.  Frankie still seems to struggle with his command a bit (he seems to have trouble getting his infamous slider over for strikes), and he needs more movement on his fastball, which has become very hittable. Otherwise, I  expect  he will eventually challenge  Scott  Baker  for the top spot in the rotation.

Kevin Slowey, a soft-tossing righty similar to our beloved Brad Radke, gets the third spot.  Slowey had a pretty good year last season, finishing 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.   He's definitely a control pitcher who doesn't get a ton of strikeouts (well, except for this game), and does tend to give up the occasional long ball (22 to be exact).  However, he doesn't like to give up many walks, so batters will just have to earn their way on (probably by hitting home runs).  Like the Giants' Tim Lincecum, Slowey looks a lot more like a bat-boy than a big-league pitcher.  Oh, and he has a blog.

The rotation is rounded out by Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn.  Until the last few weeks of

the season, Perk was having a banner year and was in the running for the Rookie of the Year award.  Unfortunately, fatigue began to set in, and the Stillwater native struggled mightily, posting a bloated 7.45 ERA in the month of September.   I do think  Perk will rebound, though, and probably finish the season with at least 12 wins and an ERA around 3.30.

Nick Blackburn was a pleasant surprise in the rotation last year.  He was a 26 year old rookie who was terrible in his few relief appearances in 2007, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA.  It looked like he was destined to become a career minor-leaguer who simply lacked the confidence to pitch in the big leagues.  But Blackburn  was very good in his first full season, finishing with an  11-11 record and a 4.05 ERA, and he pitched an absolute gem in the biggest game of his career (well, aside from the one mistake to notorious Twin-killer Jim Thome).  Like Carlos Silva, Blackburn is a contact pitcher who relies on his sinking fastball, so he tends to give up a lot of hits.  Unlike Silva, however, Blackburn can actually make outs and is about $48 million cheaper.

The Twins are lucky in that they don't have to worry about their starting rotation.   Besides having five very talented youngsters (who will make a combined $2.5 million this season), they have  pitching talent in the  minors  ready to  take over a  rotation spot if the need arises.  Anthony Swarzak, Rob Delaney, and Kevin Mulvey could be called up should one of the kids suffer an injury or start to regress.  Right now, though, the rotation looks pretty solid as it is.

Now, the bullpen is a completely different story...

They're not booing......

Original entry posted here.

Over the Baggy recently did a very detailed analysis of our boy Boof's potential as a reliever.  I'm not going to rehash the whole thing ad nauseum, but it's interesting to note how much Boof improved as the season wore on.  I had noticed that he seemed to be settling into his new role, but he continues to struggle in big spots.  He can't pitch from the stretch, which is important if you are going to inherit the set-up job.  He also struggles against lefties, who have been hitting .315/.378/.486 against him.  So, at least at this point, about the only thing Boof would be good for is as a sort of situational righty against a slew of righty bats with the bases empty.  And how often does that happen?

If Boof has a good year this season, the Twins will be tempted to hang onto him.  This would be a mistake.  If Boof returns to his 2006 form, the Twins should trade him for whatever they can get.  At 27, it's unlikely he is ever going to put up career numbers like that again and will be worth more for the prospects they would get in return.  And they already have a similar pitcher in Philip Humber, who will be much cheaper and about as effective.  The Twins made a similar mistake in not trading Matt Guerrier after the 2007 season, in which he posted a

career-best 2.35 ERA, and will now have to pay him $2 million in arbitration.

Since the Twins haven't made any big moves to improve their bullpen (signing R. A. Dickey to a minor-league deal does not count as a significant move), it looks as though they are going with the set-up-man-by-committee approach. This should be good enough to compete in the weak AL Central, but  won't get the job done against  tough teams the Twins will likely see  should they make the playoffs (the  Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, etc.).  But who knows.  Maybe rookie Jose Mijares will prove that his stellar 2008 campaign was no fluke and will lead the team to its first World Series title since 1991.  A girl can dream, can't she?

When your baseball team isn't doing anything........

Original entry posted here.

At least there is hockey to fall back on.  I promise this will (mostly) be a baseball blog.  And when the Twins decide to do something, I'll write about it.  Until then, two of our other teams were busy tonight in games that have some huge implications.

• Wild thump 'yotes 6-3:

This was a win that this team sorely needed.   After a losing two games in a row to teams that they really should've beaten (the Flyers and Blue Jackets), the Wild came back and had their way with Phoenix at the X.  For a team that has had such a pathetic offense (they are ranked dead last in the league in even-strength scoring) and has generally looked asleep on the ice as of late, they had no trouble finding the back of the net tonight.  Four players : Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu, Cal Clutterbuck, and Owen Nolan each had a goal and an assist.  And while the Coyotes certainly made things interesting by pulling within one goal in the third, Clutterbuck and James Shepppard answered with a goal apiece to put the game away.

This game is huge because there are currently four teams tied for third place in the Northwest Division, and only four points separating the Wild from second-place Vancouver.  The Wild dug themselves a huge hole in December, when they went 3-9-1, and cannot afford to lose these types of games if they hope to earn a playoff spot.

• Wolves fall to Miami, 99-96

I don't really think anyone expected the Wolves to win this game, even though they've been

riding an incredible hot streak.  But this loss was still disappointing because they were actually leading the Heat the entire game.  Well, until the last 2:42 minutes, anyway.  In typical Wolves fashion, they managed to squander 5 point lead in the last few minutes, although this is not nearly as devastating as their Dec. 30th loss to Dallas in which they p****d away a 29 point lead and ended up losing 100-107.

Randy Foye was absolutely on fire tonight, with 29 points and 8 assists.  Unfortunately, he was outdueled by Dwyane Wade, who had 31 points and 8 assists.  Foye did his best to make sure Wade's hands were full trying to defend him, but in the end it just wasn't enough.

Although the Wolves have now fallen to 11-26, it's encouraging to see them playing so well together.  It kills me to admit that Kevin McHale might actually be doing something right, but the team is showing so much life under his tutelage it's actually kind of scary. And while I am going to banish any thoughts of making the playoffs from my mind, it looks as though the team might actually finish at .500.  After the abysmal start to the season, and the past few seasons in general, that would be quite an accomplishment indeed.   

The Third Base Conundrum

Original entry posted here.

• Rangers' Michael Young Requests a Trade:

According to this story, Michael Young has requested a trade from the Texas Rangers rather than be moved to third base.  Naturally, there are rumors that the Twins might be interested in the 32-year old shortstop.  This is a terrible idea.  First of all, the Twins do not need a shortstop, since this is why they re-signed Nick Punto.  They need an everyday third baseman, and Young is apparently opposed to the idea of playing third.  Secondly, Michael Young is overrated.  Yes, he puts up good numbers, but he also plays in a hitter's paradise.  And although he did win a Gold Glove (for some reason), he is one of the worst defenders in the league. Considering what it would likely cost to acquire Young (likely one of the young starters or prized prospects), let's hope the Twins are smart enough to say no. 

The last thing the Twins need is a mediocre hitter who can't play his position, especially for a team that struggled defensively last season.  The Twins had long been known as one of the best defensive teams in the league, but last year was an exception.  The team committed 108 errors, or seventh-most in the league.  A lot of this had to do with the fact that the team had so many rookies, most of whom improved as the season wore on. Some  of it was also due to the rotating nature of the infield due to injuries that prevented  players like Brendan Harris from settling into a particular role.   At any rate, it is clear that a team built on pitching, speed, and defense cannot afford to sacrifice one of these things (namely defense) for what is likely to be little improvement in offense.   

There's also been talk that the Twins are interested in free agent third baseman Joe Crede.

  On the surface, Crede does appear to be a better fit and would be an upgrade over the current Buscher/Harris platoon at third.  His bat has pop, and unlike Young he is certainly not a liability defensively.  However, Crede has been injured a lot and missed most of last season with a back injury.  I'm not sure his back would hold up playing on that awful turf, which is little more than a thin rug stretched over concrete.   If he were willing to sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal on the cheap (which is unlikely given that his agent is Scott Boras), then I would support it.   If he is looking for a deal similar to  what Casey Blake got from the  Dodgers, however,  then the  Twins might as well just save their money and stick with what they have.

Finding an everyday third baseman has been a struggle for the organization ever since Corey Koskie left via free agency after the 2004 season.  Yes, you read that right, the Twins have not had an everyday third baseman in four years.  Four years!  In that time Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Tony Batista, and God knows how many part-timers have all failed to take over the starting job (and those are just the names I can think of off-hand.  I know there are even more).  Some were horrible defenders, some were terrible hitters, and some (Lamb) couldn't do either.

The Twins do have a couple of intriguing minor-leaguers in Danny Valencia and Luke Hughes who might finally win the starting job.  Hughes has put up some very good numbers, although they did decline a bit when he made the jump from AA to AAA ball (from .319/.385/.551 with 15 homers, to .283/.325/.463 with 3 homers).  Valencia has also put up some respectable numbers, and he is better defensively than Hughes.  However, both have some major drawbacks.  Hughes' defense is nothing to get too excited about, and there's a question as to whether or not he'll ever be major-league ready.  Valencia, at 24, has yet to advance beyond AA ball.  However, given the thin market and the fact that whoever the Twins are interested in will cost too much (either in money for free agents or prospects in trade) the team is better off seeing what they have in these guys than rolling the dice with  either Young or Crede.

Bert Belongs in the Hall

 Original entry posted here.

Bert Blyleven is the type of pitcher who is likely to be overlooked by Hall of Fame voters because, while he was dominant for most of his career, he's never really been considered one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  And that's a shame, because when you look at all he's accomplished during his career, Bert really does deserve to get in.  He had 3,701 career strikeouts (he is the only retired member of the 3000 strikeout club not in the Hall), a 3.31 ERA, won two World Series rings (one with the 1979 Pirates and one with the 1987 Twins), and was a two-time All-Star (once with his first stint with the Twins in 1973, and with the 1985 Indians).  Not to mention the fact that he had the nastiest curveball of his generation.

One of the major reasons voters have been so reluctant to include Bert in the Hall is that he never won a Cy Young Award. There's also the fact that he allowed a lot of home runs, setting the single-season record in 1986 (50) and back-to-back seasons ('86, & '87, when he allowed 46).  He also never reached the magic 300 career wins threshold, falling short at 283.   I think, though, that all of this stuff is irrelevant when you consider just how good his stuff was when he was in his prime.  And while he never really won a lot of individual awards, he did lead two different teams to Wold Series victories. 

Bert is eligible to get in through the writer's vote until 2012.  Each year he gets a little more support (he finished with 61.9 % of the vote last year).  Hopefully the voters will finally get it right this time.

As a side note, I have to say that I really like having Bert do the color commentary for

Twins games.  Yes, he's kind of crabby and if I hear him complain about how today's pitchers are coddled, I'll throw something at the t.v. Or invent a new drinking game.  But he, and play-by-play guy Dick Bremer, really have a passion for the game that's missing from the national broadcasts. I hate it when FOX features the Twins in the game-of-the-week because I have to listen to a bunch of drones who have absolutely no clue about what's going on with the team, and sound as though they would rather be somewhere else (I'm looking at you, Joe Buck).

• In other news....

The Timberwolves have now won 5 straight games!!!  I have no idea how long it's been since they've had a 5-game winning streak, probably back when KG was still a Wolf.  And I'm sure they'll start losing again once they have to face an opponent who's actually competent.  Still, considering that the team was coming off a 13-game skid, it's good to finally see the team show some flashes of talent.

I know I should be rooting for the Wolves to lose, otherwise it just validates Kevin McHale's idiotic decisions as GM.  And it's clear that they're not going to make the playoffs, so they should go for the higher draft pick.  But, if I have learned anything over the past 20 years it is that the Wolves front office has no idea how to evaluate talent, and they'll probably just screw it up anyway.  For now, I am just going to enjoy this little hot streak, because it certainly won't last.