Sweep!

There is nothing more satisfying than sweeping a hated division rival at home (except maybe sweeping them, no...better yet, clinching the division in their ballpark), especially one as whiny as the Pale Hose. Brian Duensing stepped in for an injured Francisco Liriano and successfully shut down the White Sox for five innings. He surrendered a couple of solo homers to Jayson Nix and Carlos Quentin, but pitched pretty well for the most part, allowing only three hits and a walk while racking up a pair of strikeouts. Duensing was hardly dominant, but he posted a decent 48/16 K/BB ratio and managed to induce quite a few ground balls. The lefty hadn't fared well as a reliever, posting a 5.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine appearances, but maybe that was just because he didn't get to use most of his secondary stuff pitching out of the bullpen. Obviously, it will take more than one decent start to prove Duensing can pitch effectively in the major leagues, nor am I ready to give up on F-bomb just yet (he can be fixed), but it was gratifying to see a rookie confound the Sox hitters all the same.

It's amazing the difference one series can make. After the last West Coast disaster, the Twins were trailing the Tigers by four games and looked to be falling out of contention fast. One sweep of the White Sox, and a subsequent series loss by Detroit to the Rangers, and the Twins are right back in the hunt. They could use some pitching help, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and it sounds like they have been aggressively pursuing a few players but aren't close on anything. That might not be a bad thing. As frustrating as it is to watch the team sit on its hands at the trade deadline, I would hate for them to mortgage away a significant part of the future in a misguided attempt to win now. A season and a half of Freddy Sanchez isn't worth losing Danny Valencia (or maybe even Aaron Hicks, for that matter), a top prospect who will probably be the starting third baseman next year. Considering how difficult it's been for the Twins to find a decent third baseman since Corey Koskie left five years ago, it would be foolish to deal Valencia for a midseason rental. Few of these blockbuster deals for rental players ever work out, and some end up screwing over the organization for decades. Case in point: the 1987 Detroit Tigers. The Tigers found themselves in contention despite getting off to a slow 11-19 start, and dealt a top pitching prospect to the Braves for Doyle Alexander in an effort to bolster their rotation. The result: they finished the season 98-64 and made it all the way to the ALCS before nearly being swept by the eventual WS champion Twins. Detroit would fail make the playoffs again for almost 20 years, while posting 15 losing seasons in the meantime. Oh, and that prospect they dealt? Some guy named John Smoltz. I'm pretty sure the Tigers would like to have that one back.

The Twins have an off day today before opening a three game series against the Angels at home. I'll be out of town all weekend, visiting my aunt who lives in the wilderness of Northern Minnesota/Southern Cananda. There's no cable, internet, or cell phone access so I'll have no idea what in the hell is going on until sometime Monday afternoon. It may be for the best, considering the miserable effort the Twins put up against the Angels the last time around. Still, the Twins did sweep the Angels the last time they were in town (when Jason Kubel had a very memorable game), and they do lead the season series 4-3 despite nearly being swept in Anaheim. Back-to-back series sweeps would put the team in a very good position to win the division, though that might be a little too much to ask.

For Posterity's Sake

(via Fangraphs)

Mark Brrrrle was perfect through 5.2 innings, and set a new major-league record by retiring 45 batters in a row. Then Alexi Casilla (of all people) decided to go and spoil the party by drawing a walk. Issuing a free pass to a guy who's drawn a whopping 15 walks in 166 plate appearances must've really annoyed Brrrrle, since he then found it difficult to get out of the inning. Denard Span singled to break up the no-hitter, Joe Mauer hit a ground-rule double to spoil the shutout bid, then Brrrrle finally got Morneau to ground out and end the inning. Really though, does anyone expect a no-hitter, let alone a perfect game, with Joe Mauer in the lineup? A guy batting .358/.427/.593 doesn't have many 0-fers, just ask Gavin Floyd. The Twins tagged Brrrrle for four more runs on three hits in the seventh, and he was yanked in favor of Octavio Dotel after retiring only one more batter. So Mark Buehrle gets to go down in history for a second straight start, but the Twins ruin it all by winning the game. All in all, it was a pretty good night.

Scott Baker also pitched a good game, though he was obviously overshadowed by the epic performance of his opponent. Scotty wasn't perfect or even terribly efficient, needing 120 pitches to complete six innings, but he allowed only one run (a solo homer to Jermaine Dye) on four hits and struck out six. Bobby Keppel nearly effed things up in the ninth, when the Pale Hosers scored a pair of runs on a walk and two straight two-out hits, but Joe Nathan was brought in to retire Dewayne Wise for the final out. Joe Nathan doesn't put up with any of this run-scoring nonsense, so there's really no reason to let anyone else come in to pitch the ninth. Ever. Even if the Twins are already up by ten runs.

My favorite part of the game (besides the outcome) was the requisite whining by the White Sox about the mystical powers of the Metrodome. Cue the saddest music in the world:

“I’m not a big fan of broken-bat, bloop singles,” Buehrle said. “It just seems like any time at this place you just know it’s going to happen. You could be up 10-0 in the ninth inning and something’s going to happen in that inning.”

Except there was nothing bloop or broken-bat about any of the singles the Twins got off of Brrrrle. Span, Harris, and Punto all had solid base hits (and it isn't very often that you can say Nick Punto had a solid base hit). Maybe Posednik should have caught Mauer's double, but that was a tough play so I'd give him the benefit of the doubt (plus I'm horribly biased). Unlike the night before, the Twins simply beat Brrrle and the White Sox, and it's too bad he just can't admit it.

Our Strike-Throwing Machine is Borkened

The Twins beat the White Sox last night and thus gained a game in the standings on both Detroit and Chicago, but any sort of celebration has been tempered with the news that Kevin Slowey will be out for the rest of the season. This hardly comes as a shock, since his season appeared to be over when he was shut down on Friday, but now it's official. Slowey needs surgery to remove a bone chip in his wrist, an injury he sustained when he took a line drive off the bat of Juan Uribe last September. The Twins have taken a lot of criticism for their handling of injuries over the past few years (namely Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser), and a lot of fans are understandably upset that this wasn't taken care of sooner. However, surgery is generally a last resort in treating bone chips (Manny Corpas tried a similar rest/rehab approach before having surgery), and it is the sort of injury that a pitcher could pitch through as long as the pain isn't too terrible. The prognosis for this kind of operation is usually good, so Slowey should make a full recovery. It's just unfortunate that he won't be ready to pitch again until next year.

The loss of Slowey highlights the biggest problem facing the organization: the lack of depth in the starting rotation. It was something I was concerned about heading into the season, since pitchers tend to get injured and can be more difficult to replace than position players. Anthony Swarzak now has a full-time job in the rotation, which leaves Brian Duensing and R[uns] A[llowed] Dickey as the only other options to fill out the rotation should someone else go down. While Detroit and Chicago aren't exactly running away with the division, it's tough to see the Twins making the playoffs this year. On top of the holes in the middle infield and the bullpen, the starting rotation now needs to be addressed and it's looking less and less likely that the Twins are going to make any major moves at the trade deadline. It's unfortunate, too, because while this season might be a wash, the Twins have a core of talented young players that will help them contend next season (and beyond if they actually succeed in locking up Mauer). Acquiring a good middle infielder such as Freddy Sanchez, or reliever such as Scott Downs, with one more season left on their contracts would at least put them in a good position to make a deep run in the playoffs next year.

On a side note: besides being one of the best pitchers in the rotation, Slowey is definitely my favorite of the five starters (and second only to Joe Nathan on the entire staff). He's just so much fun to watch. His fastball tops out at about 89 mph, and yet he still posts a very good 6.94 K/9 rate. I used to love watching Johan make quick work of even the best hitters with his devastating changeup, but it's even more satisfying to watch major-league hitters flail away at a four-seamer that rarely touches 90 mph. Greg Maddux and Brad Radke made me fall in love with pinpoint control and the art of deception, and while I hesitate to place Slowey in their company just yet, he's about the closest thing the staff has had to an ace since Johan departed.

The Summer of Our Discontent

Wasting History. That is precisely what has been so maddening about this team: three players (Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel) are putting up historic (for the Twins) numbers and the front office is completely pissing it away. Indeed, if it were not for the heroics of those three the Twins would be battling the Indians and the Royals for last place. The problem with this team is, and has been all season long, that the supporting cast just isn't good enough. It's not that the Twins need a roster full of superstars to make a deep playoff run. The supporting cast simply needs to be replacement-level, and they're not. They're not even close. I've already discussed the giant blackhole of suck that is the 6-9 hitters in the lineup and little has changed since then, so there's no need to go on about it here. It's been obvious since the end of last season that the Twins need to upgrade the middle infield and the bullpen (and maybe the starting rotation, too), and yet the front office failed to bring in even average players. Their reluctance to give up the farm for someone like Freddy Sanchez is understandable, but solid players like Felipe Lopez and reliever Cla Meredith were available and could have been had for a song. I do criticize the front office a lot, but I also like to think that they are smart people who have the organization's best interests at heart. I realize that it isn't easy to make a trade, especially when the upper levels of your farm system don't have much depth. But when decent players are being acquired for marginal prospects, it erodes the credibility of the front office and makes it difficult to swallow the "Other teams are asking too much" line.

As for the pitching staff, both the starters and relievers have been a disappointment this season. I've defended the starters in the past, and it's true that none of them are anything spectacular, but they shouldn't be quite this bad, either. They are essentially control artists: they don't strike out many batters, don't issue many walks, and pitch to contact. They rely heavily on the defense behind them, and that defense has been letting them down. The Twins are posting a -4.4 UZR/150 this season, or about fifth-worst in all of baseball. The middle infield has been particularly inept, with nearly everything hit to the likes of Alexi Casilla (-21.1), Matt Tolbert (-11.5), Brendan Harris (-19.4), and Nick Punto (-2.8) bounding into the outfield for a hit. Obviously, shoddy defense isn't the sole cause of the pitching woes this season, and there are a number of good defensive teams that aren't even above .500 (the Reds and Pirates come to mind), but I doubt very much that the Twins would have blown a 10-run lead against Oakland if their defense was even adequate. One has to wonder why, when putting together a staff full of pitchers whose success depends so much on the defense behind them, the front office saw fit to put together one of the worst defensive teams in baseball.

The Twins still apparently consider themselves buyers at the deadline, and some of the players they have reportedly expressed interest in are um, interesting. For obvious reasons, I don't think it's a good idea for the Twins to pursue contact pitchers like Jarrod Washburn and Jon Garland. I'm not high on Orlando Cabrera either, but if the Twins could get Michael Wuertz as part of the deal, it might be worth it. Cabrera is 34 years old and seems to be on the decline both offensively and defensively, but he tends to have a strong second half and would provide at least some upgrade over the current options at short. Wuertz, however, is exactly the sort of reliever the bullpen needs: a solid middle reliever who can rack up strikeouts without giving up a lot of hits or home runs. As much as I would love the Twins to pursue Sanchez and Heath Bell, both are likely to cost more in prospects than the front office will be willing to sacrifice. At any rate, this whole mess just makes the Delmon Young trade look even worse. The Twins are now going to have to spend a lot in resources to get back what they lost in Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza, and are stuck with a below replacement-level corner outfielder who may or may not ever reach his potential.

*Sigh*

Ugh, as if being thoroughly embarrassed by the Athletics' AAA squad wasn't bad enough, it looks like Joe Crede might be headed for the DL. He has an appointment with specialist Dr. Lewis Yocum tomorrow, after re-aggravating his shoulder during yesterday's game. Great, the Brendan Harris/Brian Buscher platoon will be back at third, opposing hitters are going to love that (it probably isn't a coincidence that the Twins surrendered 30 runs against Oakland with the Harris/Punto/Casilla infield). Not surprisingly, after giving up eight runs in under two innings, Glen Perkins will be visiting the same specialist. Apparently his shoulder has been bothering him again during warm-ups, though he claims it wasn't a problem during the games (this could be true, Perk was 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA since coming off the DL). Mulva Delores Kevin Mulvey has been optioned back to Rochester, while Jesse Crain has been recalled. I know it's July, the Twins are only 2.5 games back and it isn't as though the Tigers are exactly running away with the division, but it's getting harder and harder to remain optimistic about this team.

It's pretty safe to assume at this point that, unless they consider themselves sellers, the Twins won't be making any blockbuster moves at the trade deadline. They rarely ever make any major deadline deals to improve their club (the last was for Shannon Stewart in 2003), and there are simply too many holes to fill. The middle infield has the worst OPS in the league, half of the starting rotation is either ineffective or injured (or both), the bullpen is a mess, and now third base might (once again) be a problem. It's going to take more than one impact player to overcome all of that. Like it or not, this is essentially the team we have.

There is one faint glimmer of hope this season, however: If Crede does indeed end up on the DL then maybe, just maybe, the Twins will call up Danny Valencia. Valencia is batting .362/.376/.617 in AAA, and while he's always been a good contact hitter, he seems to be developing some power as well. More importantly though, he isn't Brendan Harris or Brian Buscher, and at least in this case the company line might be correct (say it with me now: "It's just as good as making a trade."). And maybe Jesse Crain will start to regain his pre-surgery form. Hey, it could happen. He's actually pitched pretty well in Rochester, posting a 2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and better yet, a much-improved 22/8 K/BB ratio in twelve relief appearances. He certainly can't be any worse than the other burning brides in the bullpen, anyway. You know what, it might just be the beer talking, but suddenly things don't seem so bad after all.

Win Probability: Twins-A's 7/20

(via Fangraphs)

Holy shit, this has got to be Fangraphs' game-of-the-week.

Of Course

Justin Morneau homered twice and had a career-high 7 RBI, Jason Kubel went 3-for-3 with a home run and three walks (one intentional), and well, pretty much everyone in the lineup besides Punto and Casilla had a hit. Nick Blackburn wasn't particularly sharp, but when he left the game in the fifth he had a 13-7 lead. The bullpen obviously wasn't going to let that stand. They proceeded to surrender as many runs in one third of an inning as Blackburn did all night. Two walks, a few bleeders, a bloop double, and a grand slam later, Oakland suddenly had a 14-13 lead. The Twins then had a chance to tie the game in the ninth, when the ball got away from Kurt Suzuki and he couldn't find it, but Michael Cuddyer was called out at the plate EVEN THOUGH HE WAS CLEARLY SAFE. Not that it matters, if your bullpen can't hold a six-run lead you probably don't deserve to win anyway.

This isn't the first time the Twins have coughed up a ten-run lead. They nearly did it earlier this year against the same Oakland team. They were leading 10-0 going into the ninth inning, and Joe Nathan had to come in to get the save (too bad Gardy has some sort of rule about not letting him pitch more than one inning, the Twins might have escaped with a win). They also did it against the Indians in 1984, but I was only two then and I'm pretty sure I didn't care.

So, instead of gaining a half game on the idle Tigers and keeping pace with the White Sox, the Twins fall to 2.5 games back and only one game over .500. And never mind all that stuff I said earlier about the schedule being soft, it doesn't matter. The White Sox have been beating teams with winning records, the Twins just surrendered fourteen runs and twenty-two hits to the worst offense in the league.

Yes They Can...But Will They?

As Jon Marthaler at Twinkie Town notes, there is reason to be optimistic about the Twins' chances this year. The bullpen, which had gotten off to such a rough start, has turned around and become one of the better ones in the league. Some of the worst hitters in the lineup, most notably Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez, have started to pick things up. And even Delmon Young has started to get hot recently, batting .310 with seven of his twenty-seven hits going for extra bases. However, their relatively soft schedule might be the Twins' greatest advantage down the stretch. Even though they play 29 of their last 70 games on the road, most of those games are against teams below .500, and they don't have a brutal 14-game road trip like last season (though they do have a couple of 10 gamers, one in September against Chicago and Detroit that will likely determine the division champ). They're done with the beasts of the East for the season, though they have three games remaining against Baltimore and four in Toronto. Better yet, things only get tougher for Detroit and Chicago from here on out. While the Twins are battling divisional powerhouses like Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit gets the Red Sox and the White Sox get the Yankees.

Still, some fans have been advocating that the Twins go after Roy Halladay. I'm obviously not going to argue with that, but while we're dreaming I'd also really like to see Evan Longoria at third base. The front office would be crazy to not even inquire what it would take to get Halladay, but I'm guessing the Twins don't really have the prospects to land him and would be unwilling to part with them even if they did. The Phillies, Dodgers, and White Sox could all put together more attractive packages, and the Twins generally don't like to deal for rent-a-players. Acquiring Halladay would certainly make the Twins instant favorites to win the Central, but whether he would lead the team to a championship is doubtful. It is kind of tough to win a World Series with a weak middle infield, after all (Yeah, thanks for pointing out that the Twins' second-basemen have the worst OPS in the league, Rob. Like that hasn't been painfully obvious to those of us who follow the team). Not that I wouldn't love to see the best pitcher in the league donning a Twins uniform, mind you. I remember what that was like.

If the Twins are going to give up the farm to go after a legitimate ace, maybe Danny Haren would be a better target. The D-Backs will be sellers at the trade deadline, and it wouldn't hurt to at least inquire about his availability. It doesn't sound like Arizona is keen on moving him right now, but they might want to get out from under his contract and could make him available for the right price. Haren is three years younger than Halladay, is locked up in a ridiculously well-below market value contract through the 2012 season (with an option for 2013), and is the sort of strikeout machine the Twins could really use in the rotation. Obviously, the Twins would have to sacrifice a starter or two and some of their best prospects to get him, but it would be worth it. I know it would never actually happen, but a girl can dream right?

WTF?

(image courtesy Yahoo! Sports)

• Punto homers, Mauer goes 0-6, and the Twins Lose 5-3

What an odd night in Texas. Nick Punto (!) hit a home run that tied the game, and turned one of the strangest double-plays I've ever seen (which was scored 6-6-6, interesting). Joe Mauer had never gone 0-for-6 before (damn you, Home Run Derby), though he's also never had much success in the Rangers' ballpark (he's batting just .206 in 14 games). And even Alexi Casilla came through with a big hit that gave the Twins a 3-1 lead. Too bad they couldn't make it stick.

The Twins blew a huge chance to gain ground on both the Tigers and White Sox, who both lost earlier. Making matters worse is the fact that the Twins had the lead for most of the game. Frankie even had a pretty decent night, surrendering three runs (two earned) in six innings while striking out six and walking three. But the Rangers kept chipping away at the lead all night long, and the Twins kept stranding baserunners all night long. You could blame the bullpen for this loss, you could blame Gardy and some of his, um, interesting pinch-hitting choices and management of the bullpen, but really the Twins lost this one because they left 10 freakin' runners stranded on base. And the best hitters in the lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau) all went hitless, that doesn't help much, either.

Still, even with a loss, the Twins only trail the Sox by a half game, and the Tigers by two. This is the fourth road series they've won in a row, improving their record to 19-25, which isn't bad for a team that used to have the worst road record in the league.

The Twins signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor-league deal earlier this afternoon, and for now this looks like their solution to the second-base problem. It's not such a bad signing, since he isn't guaranteed a starting job (unlike Sidney Ponson) and thus won't cost the team millions of dollars if he ends up sucking. And though he's 39 years old, Grudzielanek put up pretty good numbers with the Royals last year. He doesn't have much power, but he is a decent contact hitter and is at least average on defense, something the Twins have lacked from their current options at second. Still, with the Brewers acquiring Felipe Lopez from the Diamondbacks for a couple of marginal prospects, one has to wonder why the Twins' front office seems to have so much difficulty making trades. Obviously, it doesn't make sense to trade away top prospects for a replacement-level infielder, but the Twins seem reluctant to part with any prospects, even marginal ones.

The Not-So Fearsome Five

There is a common perception that the Twins' starting rotation has been disappointing so far this season, to say the least. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano are both underperforming, at least according to the high expectations placed on them coming into the season. Nick Blackburn has been a pleasant surprise, and before going on the DL, Kevin Slowey was one of the most consistent starters in the rotation. But is this the reality? Let's look at the numbers:

Nick Blackburn: 3.06 ERA 4.89 xFIP 1.281 WHIP 1.86 K/BB 3.9 K/9 2.3 WAR
Glen Perkins: 4.75 ERA 4.80 xFIP 1.344 WHIP 2.35 K/BB 4.3 K/9 1.5 WAR
Kevin Slowey: 4.86 ERA 4.28 xFIP 1.412 WHIP 5.00 K/BB 7.4 K/9 1.4 WAR
Scott Baker: 5.10 ERA 4.17 xFIP 1.198 WHIP 3.91 K/BB 7.4 K/9 1.6 WAR
Francisco Liriano: 5.47 ERA 4.53 xFIP 1.490 WHIP 2.02 K/BB 8.2 K/9 1.3 WAR

And since he's had to fill in for some of the injured starters, let's throw in Anthony Swarzak, too:

Swarzak: 4.50 ERA 5.39 xFIP 1.438 WHIP 1.64 K/BB 5.1K/9 0.4 WAR

In looking at the peripherals, there isn't a huge difference between the mainstays in the rotation. So why have Frankie and Scotty been so disappointing, while Blackburn has been such a pleasant surprise? I've written a more in-depth analysis of Blackburn here, and it seems as though he's been playing above his head a bit this season. His last start against the White Sox, in which he surrendered four runs on nine hits in seven innings, is much more indicative of the numbers he should be putting up given his mediocre 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 H/9 rates.

The long ball has been Baker's undoing most of the season. This isn't unusual, since he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, but his HR/FB% is at a career-high 12.5 and is currently the worst of the starters (and of all the pitchers currently with the team). Obviously, it doesn't help that he missed the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder issue, and might not have been 100% when he came back. Scotty has been better at keeping the ball in the park lately though, and since his K/BB ratio and K/9 rate are both very solid, he should see a continued decline in his ERA. Indeed, he's coming off a terrific start against the Rangers in which he surrendered only one run (a solo homer, naturally) on six hits in eight innings while walking two and striking out eight.

For Frankie, walks have really been an issue this season. His 8.2 K/9 rate is the best in the rotation, and second only to Joe Nathan (11.1) on the team, but his ugly 4.1 BB/9 rate is the worst. His difficulty in pitching out of the stretch has been well-documented, so I'm not going to go through all the numbers (you can see them here), but it is interesting to note how much he's struggled against right-handed hitting. The good news is that Frankie's BB/9 and K/9 rates, and subsequently K/BB ratio have shown steady improvement every month this season, so his ERA should also continue to drop.

There's been a lot said about the Twins' rotation, that they don't have an ace and that is something they will need if the organization is serious about winning a championship. And certainly the rotation would be much better if someone like Dan Haren or um, Johan Santana were leading it. However, what the Twins do have are five very solid young arms who are under their control for the next several years, something that is quite valuable in and of itself. And while they might not have an ace of the staff, they don't have a starter who is truly awful, either. The Twins have been reluctant to deal any of their starters for an infielder or bullpen help, which is understandable given what's reportedly been available on the market.

Power Hitters Kubel Khan and...Garrett Jones?

• Former Twin Garrett Jones powers the Pirates past San Francisco in 2-1 win

To say that Jones had a good night at the plate is a bit of an understatement. He hit two home runs: one of which came off of Tim Lincecum and the other was the game-winner in the bottom of the 14th, an absolute blast that landed in the Allegheny river. Jones has actually been having a pretty good season with the Pirates, batting .310/.360/.762 with 7 home runs in 46 plate appearances since being called-up from AAA. This is really only his second call-up in his entire career, so it's hard to say whether he will sustain this level of production. Obviously, the fact that he's 28 years old and has spent nearly his entire career in the minors doesn't bode well, neither does the fact that he batted .258/.312/.450 in all that time. He he has some power but he doesn't get on base much and strikes out a lot, and isn't particularly good in the field. Jones might prove to be well-suited to pinch-hitting duty though, so maybe he'll find a home with the Pirates.

Originally Drafted by the Braves in 1999, Jones spent a little over three years in their system until he was released in May of 2002. The Twins then signed him as a free agent, and he spent the next seven years in the minor league system. Jones had one stint with the big club in his entire tenure with the organization: as a courtesy call-up in September 2007. He pretty much blew his audition: hitting a disappointing .208/.262/.338 in 84 plate appearances while being pretty terrible on defense. Actually, most Twins fans probably know him best as the guy who accidentally broke Michael Cuddyer's foot during his rehab start almost a year ago. Jones was always popular with Wings fans, but the crowded outfield situation in Minnesota (and the only other position he plays is first base) made him expendable. He signed with the Pirates as a free agent in December of last year and seems to be making the most of his time in the big leagues. Whether he is simply a late-bloomer or playing over his head remains to be seen.

• Kubel powers Twins past Rangers in 5-3 victory

Jason Kubel hit a three-run homer off of Vincente Padilla in the fourth that gave the Twins the lead, though they would have to hold on and beat Texas. Kubel has been the third-best hitter on the team this season, batting .311/.368/.546 with 15 home runs and is well on his way to earning the $7 million contract extension he received in the off-season. Obviously, he still doesn't have as much power as the Twins would like, and he doesn't hit lefties well at all, but it's better than having Jason Tyner as the DH.

O Hai

I am an MLBlogs expatriate. It's a nice little community over there, but since I'm no fan of censorship (or essentially being forced to recommend things I haven't actually read), I've decided to pack my things and move to blogger. I also have a blog on MTR, though I haven't moved over there permanently because the format is hideous and not at all customizable. This is the best of both worlds, though I will probably get a lot less traffic over here. I guess you can't have everything.

Anyhoo, here's some of the most interesting stuff I've read today:

My last post on MLBlogs was an analysis of the Santana trade. It's not that bad, considering it was written by someone who has absolutely no idea what she's talking about.

Drew at Ghostrunner on First may have perfectly summed up the business of baseball today: "We're asking publicly traded corporations and private citizens to forsake millions of dollars so our favorite TV show has a better ending. "

Rob Iracane of Walkoff Walk thinks that interleague play has done more to bring parity to baseball than revenue-sharing. I would argue though, that using free agency rules to their advantage has helped smaller-market teams level the playing field more than anything. The compensatory draft picks they receive when their best players leave via free agency, and the fact that they can hang onto Rule V draft picks longer, have helped ensure that smaller-market teams have a steady stream of top talent available in the minor leagues. Both of these things have probably done more to bring parity to baseball than a salary cap ever would.

Curtis Granderson was giggling like a schoolgirl when he met President Obama at the All-Star Game. To be clear: I AM NOT ENDORSING ANY PARTICULAR POLITICAL PARTY OR AFFILIATION. I just think it's cute that a professional ballplayer was so star-struck by meeting the president of the United States.

Should the Twins go after Barry Zito? If the Giants would pay most of his salary, and don't ask for much in return, then maybe. If nothing else, it might be a good way to get guys like Philip Humber and Matt Macri off the roster, if the Giants would accept them in a trade. And Zito has been having one of his best seasons since signing with San Francisco in 2006. However, he has put up some pretty awful numbers while pitching in one of the worst divisions in baseball, and at 31, probably won't be more than a third starter at best. So, I dunno. What do you think, readers? Hello, anyone? *crickets*

Revisiting the Santana Trade

With the recent call-up of right-hander Kevin Mulvey, now seems like a really good time to re-examine the Santana trade.  Here is a look at what the Twins got:

Carlos Gomez:

2008:  .258/.296/.360/.657 OPS   2.3 WAR

2009:  .253/.291/.358/.649 OPS   0.1 WAR

Gomez's horrible numbers at the plate are sort of neutralized by his defense.  With a career 23.5 UZR in center, he is one of the top defensive CFs in the league.  If he could just learn to hit, he would be one of the better all-around players in the league, much like Grady Sizemore.  One of the things Go-Go really needed to work on was plate discipline, and he has indeed improved in this respect.  Last season, he swung at 36.8 % of pitches outside the strike zone, while this season he has only chased 27.6%.  Thus, his BB/K ratio has subsequently improved from 0.18 to 0.36.  So far, he has little to show for his improved plate discipline, but he hasn't seen much playing time this season with the crowded outfield situation, either.  It's doubtful that Go-Go will ever develop much power, but given his age and a continued improvement in plate discipline, it's not unreasonable to expect league-average production from him eventually.

Philip Humber:

2008: 

Twins:     4.36 ERA   1.371 WHIP   1.20 K/BB    4.6 K/9   3.9 BB/9   11.2 IP
Rochester:  4.56 ERA   1.423 WHIP   2.16 K/BB   7.0 K/9   3.2 BB/9  136.1 IP

2009: 
Twins:     12.45 ERA   3.231 WHIP   1.33 K/BB   8.3 K/9   6.2 BB/9    4.2 IP
Rochester:   5.86 ERA   1.575 WHIP   1.97 K/BB   7.2 K/9   3.7 BB/9    73.2IP

Humber was once the Mets' top pitching-prospect, until he was sidelined with Tommy-John surgery in 2005.  He's been a mediocre starter for the Red Wings, and at this point (he's 26) doesn't project to be more than a long-reliever in the major leagues.  Not only have walks been an issue for Humber at the major-league level, he's also had trouble keeping the ball in the park (his HR/FB% is 18.2).  The fact that nobody claimed him when the Twins put him on waivers earlier this season (and that they were willing to risk losing him this way), probably says a lot about his value.

Kevin Mulvey:

2008:  3.77 ERA   1.351 WHIP   2.52 K/BB   7.4 K/9   2.9 BB/9   148.0 IP

2009:  3.93 ERA   1.427 WHIP   2.13 K/BB   7.1 K/9  3.3 BB/9   103.0 IP

Mulvey has spent the past two seasons as a starter in Rochester, and though he's been pretty successful, he's struggled to pitch effectively on a consistent basis.  Still, his K/9 rate is good enough to suggest that he might make it as a fifth starter or middle reliever in the major leagues.  If anything, a good performance with the big club would probably increase his trade value should the team dangle him in an effort to upgrade the bullpen or middle infield.

Deolis Guerra:

2008 (Ft. Myers):  5.47 ERA   1.608 WHIP   1.00 K/BB   4.9 K/9  4.9 BB/9   130.0 IP

2009:
Ft. Myers:   4.69 ERA   1.390 WHIP   2.28 K/BB   5.9 K/9   2.6 BB/9   86.1 IP
New Britain:   5.59 ERA  1.655 WHIP   2.67 K/BB   7.4 K/9   2.8 BB/9   9.2 IP

Guerra is the youngest and most intriguing of the three pitching prospects the Twins got in the deal. The fact that he's spent four years in A-ball isn't particularly inspiring, but he's still only 20 years old and is quite young even for that level.  Guerra was recently promoted to AA, despite his poor numbers, in the hopes that a change in scenery will do him some good.  It's unlikely that he will ever develop into an ace, and it's questionable whether he will ever even reach the major leagues, but it's also too soon to give up on him just yet.


And here's what the Mets got:

Johan Santana:   2.53 ERA   3.83 xFIP   1.15 WHIP   3.27 K/BB   4.8 WAR

Note that I am only including his 2008 numbers.  I did this because, let's face it, his leaving was a foregone conclusion.  There is no way the Twins were going to re-sign Johan, they would undoubtedly have been outbid for his services by one of the larger-market teams.  This is also why it's not really accurate to say the Mets fleeced the Twins in this deal:  the Twins were going to lose Santana anyway, and the Mets gave up a ton of prospects as well as a ton of money to acquire him.  Obviously, the Mets have come out on top so far, but dealing a superstar near free agency is always an iffy proposition and teams rarely get an adequate haul in return.  It's not like the Delmon Young trade, in which the Twins gave up two very talented young players who were under their control for the next several years and got three barely replacement-level players in return (and the centerpiece of that deal is considerably below replacement-level).  That is highway robbery.

Now, one can certainly make the case that the Twins didn't have to trade Santana, even though losing him was inevitable.  It's true that the Twins might have been better off with the additional draft picks they would have gotten from whatever team he eventually signed with.  The team almost certainly would've made the playoffs with Johan anchoring the rotation last year, though I doubt very much they actually would have won the World Series (having an unusually-high BA with RISP only gets you so far).  But from all accounts, Bill Smith was left with little choice but to deal the superstar, since Santana wanted his contract situation resolved before the start of the season.  He didn't want to have to endure the media circus and speculation that dogged Torii Hunter during his final season with the team, which is perfectly understandable.  He also made it clear that he had no intention of being a rent-a-player (like C.C. Sabathia last year) and since he had a full no-trade clause in his contract, waiting for a better deal to come along at the trade deadline would have been out of the question.  Smith was in his first season as GM after Terry Ryan abruptly resigned, and was stuck with the unenviable task of trading the staff ace.  As far as whether or not they would have gotten a better package from the Yankees or the Red Sox, it's possible.  However, we don't really know what offers were on the table, and if either team were really serious about trading for him.  It sounds to me like Boston and New York were willing to wait for Santana to enter free agency, rather than lose their top prospects in a trade.  If both teams were serious about dealing for Santana, though, and players like Ellsbury, Lester, Hughes and Cabrera really were on the table, then Smith likely made a huge mistake in not pulling the trigger.

Mulvey Up, Morales Down, a Trade in the Works?

As reported in the Star Tribune, Kevin Mulvey has been recalled from Rochester to pitch out of the bullpen.  Mulvey came over as part of the Santana trade, and this will be his first call-up with the Twins since coming over from the Mets.  The Twins were trying to get by with only 11 pitchers, but a series of shortened starts at the Dome (and the injury to Kevin Slowey, which sounds like it might be getting better) have made that impossible.  Mulvey has posted a 3.93 ERA, 1.402 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB, 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in seventeen starts for the Red Wings this season.  Meh, these numbers aren't great, but apparently he's going to be used for mop-up duty and should handle that role competently.  If anything, he will provide some much-needed depth in the bullpen.


Back-up catcher Jose Morales has been optioned back to AAA to make room for the extra pitcher.  Morales was mostly called up because Gardy likes to have an extra catcher on days Redmond is starting and Mauer is the DH, so he wasn't really getting much playing time.  Obviously, Morales has been having a better season at the plate than Redmond, but Red has incriminating pictures of Gardy more experience handling the pitching staff and I doubt the Twins are willing to eat what little is left of his contract.  Besides, the lack of production from some of the regulars in the lineup is much more troublesome than that from a guy who only plays once a week.  The Twins also could probably have optioned Brian Buscher instead, since he also rarely sees any playing time, but he offers more versatility in the field than Morales and often fills in at third when Joe Crede needs a break.

The Twins have been linked to a number of different players in trade rumors, most notably Freddy Sanchez, relief pitchers Matt Capps and John Grabow from the Pirates, and have apparently contacted Toronto about the availability of some of their relievers.  There doesn't seem to be anything in the works though, and I'm guessing that Bill Smith felt those organizations were asking too much in return (or the Twins just don't have the prospects Pittsburgh and Toronto are looking for).  Obviously, all that can change with one phone call, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens.  I don't really like to get into what moves the organization should make, who they should be targeting in a trade and all that because, honestly, I'm not all that good at it.  I don't pay enough attention to the rest of the league to know who might be a big impact player that could help the team down the stretch.  As critical as I can be of Bill Smith and the front office sometimes, I really do like to think that they act in the best interests of the team, and there is at least some sound reasoning behind some of the moves they've made, even if they didn't exactly pan out.  And I'm really not a fan of rent-a-player deals, like the ones for Sabathia and Teixeira last year.  Such trades seldom ever help the team make a deep run in the playoffs, and more often than not, the player ends up signing elsewhere during the off-season, leaving the organization scrambling to fill the same holes they had before.  Only now the farm system is a bit thinner on top of it, which is not at all a good thing for an organization that relies as heavily on its farm system as the Twins.

• Justin Morneau was miffed about the canned Canadian anthem

Morneau was reportedly annoyed that the American national anthem got the celebrity treatment at the All-Star Game, while fans were treated to a pre-recorded version of "O, Canada".  Here's what he told Joe Christensen:
"I wasn't very impressed with that to tell you the truth. You figure they could find somebody to come and sing the song. They have a hockey team here, the Canadian teams play here.
"It's something that didn't really go over too well. I think if it happened the other way around, if they were playing in Toronto and they did that, it would have been a lot bigger deal. But nothing you can do about it."

Obviously, he wasn't too worked up about the whole thing, but Morny really does have a point.  It would be different if MLB were like football, in which all of the teams are American-based and there is no need to represent more than one country, but it isn't. It's more like the NHL, which has both American and Canadian-based teams.  Prior to the start of every hockey game, someone always sings both national anthems whether the game is being played in the U. S. or Canada.  Besides, Toronto sent two representatives to the All-Star Game, one of which was the starting pitcher!  Obviously, there are fewer Canadian baseball teams than hockey teams, and there are fewer Canadian-born baseball players than hockey players, but the canned treatment of the Canadian anthem was a bit disrespectful to our neighbors to the north.  It's not really that big of a deal, but if MLB is going to take the time to honor its Canadian representatives, then at least they should do it right.

The Home Run Derby Does Not, in Fact, Screw Up a Guy's Swing

This entry was originally posted here.

It's inevitable.  One of the participants in this year's contest will go into a slump.  And the first thing people will blame is the Home Run Derby, thinking that somehow his mechanics have been thrown off by what amounts to taking extra batting practice.  Fangraphs' R.J. Anderson recently did a pretty thorough debunking of this popular myth.  He selected the five participants in recent history who have seen the most significant decline in power numbers in the second half, and concluded that most of them were simply playing above their heads and were bound to come back down to earth eventually.  And that makes sense.  The event organizers for the Home Run Derby invite players who, naturally, are hitting a lot of home runs.  These players are often having a really great first half of the season and are putting up numbers that just aren't sustainable.  Bobby Abreu is probably a perfect example.  He was having a pretty good first half of the season, hitting .307/.428/.556/.955 with 18 home runs and putting up career numbers in nearly every offensive category.  Then he started to cool off after the All-Star break, hitting only six more homers through August and September.  Obviously, people (including Abreu himself I believe, but I'll get to that in a minute) blamed the Home Run Derby for his perceived slump.  However, Abreu finished the season batting .286/.404/.474/.879, which is essentially right in line with his career numbers.  What we were seeing wasn't really a slump so much as regression: that is, his production starting was to fall right back in line with his career averages (or, if you prefer, he was who we thought he was).  I think it's also worth noting that Abreu was 34 years old at the time, and those numbers are about what you would expect from a player his age.

If you're not into fancy statistical analysis, then perhaps Joe Morgan (of all people) says it best:

"All players get tired in the second half. That is why very few players hit more HRs in the second half."

Which leads me to Joe Mauer.  Mauer was red-hot in his first month since coming off the DL, batting .414/.500/.838/1.338.  He's hit 15 homers already this season, two more than his career mark set in 2006.  These numbers aren't sustainable for anyone, especially not a catcher, and he's just bound to cool off eventually.  In fact, he already has, batting *only* .325/.404/.425/.829 in the month of July.  He'll probably finish the season batting .326/.414/.487/.901, which is much closer to his career average and might still be enough to earn him his third batting title.  SO I DON'T WANT TO HEAR ONE GODDAM THING ABOUT THE HOME RUN DERBY MESSING UP HIS SWING.

And yet, the idea that participating in the Home Run Derby causes hitters to slump persists.  Players are always quick to use it as an excuse, probably because it sounds a lot better than: "Sorry guys, I'm just tired.", or "I guess my power numbers are simply regressing to the mean."  Both of those are probably much closer to the truth, but nobody really wants to hear it.

Well, That Was Mildly Interesting (and Brief)

Original entry posted here.

• American League continues to own the National League

Unlike last year's 150-inning, 72-hour snoozefest, this game was over in a little over two and a half hours.  Which was great, because there's only so much Joe Buck and Tim McCarver that one person can stand before suffering some sort of catastrophic brain bleed.  Or throwing something at the tv.  The pre-game ceremony probably took a lot longer than the actual game itself, since it takes about an hour just to get through all the player introductions.  And for Sheryl Crow to butcher the national anthem.

Really, though, this game was probably about the best one in a long time.  After a few first-inning jitters, everyone seemed to settle down and play the sort of baseball you would expect from well, the best players in baseball.  The later innings had some of the best moments I've seen all year:  Carl Crawford robbing Brad Hawpe of a home run (and basically saving Jonathan Papelbon's a** in the process, now that's something you don't see every day), Joe Nathan striking out Ryan Howard on a nasty slider in the dirt (and getting himself out of a jam), and Curtis Granderson legging out a triple and coming around to score on an Adam Jones sac fly.  Crawford's catch was pretty much the difference maker in this game, and he was quite rightly named the MVP.  Papelbon got the win, and Mariano Rivera notched a record fourth ASG save. 

Our boys did a pretty good job representing Minnesota in the All-Star Game.  Joe Mauer caught for six innings, scored a run, and drove in the tying run on a double.  Joe Nathan managed to preserve the lead in the eighth, though he did make things a little more interesting than they really needed to be.  Hey, he hasn't worked in almost a week just enjoys toying with his opponents.  That's right, he just likes to let you think you're staging a rally against him, then he breaks your heart with a slider in the dirt.  That's not very nice, Joe.  Justin Morneau went 0-for-2, though he was robbed of a (probable) double by Jason Werth.  

And BOOOO!!!! to FOX for mentioning football about a million times during the broadcast. And showing commercials involving football about every three seconds.  Apparently this "baseball" thing is merely to hold us over until football season begins.

So, um, How's That Arm?

Original entry posted here.

"I hate that guy. Rad would get
you 0-for-4 and you'd go home wondering, 'How did he do it?' That's the
type of guy he was. He was one of the best pitchers they had in a long
time."  -Ozzie Guillen

• Twins induct Brad Radke into franchise Hall of Fame

Radke was honored
in a pregame ceremony before Saturday's loss to the White Sox, and that
turned out to be the only thing worth watching in that game (well,
maybe Joe Crede's two homers).  I've written a piece about Radke here, and I think this is the perfect time to post this commercial he did for SEGA "World Series Baseball" way back in the day:

Radke has always been a fan favorite, and it's really no wonder
why.  Besides being a consummate professional and (as far as we know)
decent human being, he gave us something to cheer for during the lean
years when there wasn't much to look forward to.  To be honest, he was
really the only decent starter on the staff for about half of his
career, and though his career numbers certainly aren't good enough to get him into Cooperstown, they sure look good compared to Frankie Rodriguez. 

Fans probably love Radke the most, though, because he turned down
more lucrative offers from other teams to remain in Minnesota.  He had
never been particularly overpowering, and he certainly wasn't a
dominant pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, but his ability to
rack up strikeouts and eat innings was valuable enough that he could
have gotten a better deal elsewhere.  The era of free agency was just
hitting its peak, and pretty much everyone was eager to cash in.  Not
Radke, though.  He opted to re-sign with the Twins simply because he
liked it here.  He liked the organization, his family loved the area,
but he also wanted to see the team through its rebuilding process. 
After years and years of being one of the worst teams in baseball, the
Twins had finally started to put together a decent team, culminating in
a string of four playoff appearances from 2002-2006.  Unfortunately,
his arm started to give out during the 2006 season, and he decided to
retire rather than have surgery and try to keep his career (and chances
of winning a World Series) alive. 

• The late George Brophy was inducted, as well

Brophy is often overlooked by fans, since his job as the director of
scouting and minor-league operations was mostly behind-the-scenes, but
he did play an important part in building the 1987 World Series-winning
team.  Patrick Reusse wrote a very good article (as well as this one
from 1998) about former farm director last week, detailing the conflict
within the organization at the time and his thankless task of trying to
build a championship-caliber team on a shoestring budget (seriously,
then-owner Calvin Griffith made the Pohlads look like the
Steinbrenners).  Obviously he played a key role in drafting and
developing players like Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett, but he made a
number of other moves that would help shape the 1987 team.  He was the
one who insisted that the Yankees throw in Greg Gagne as part of the
Roy Smalley trade, and demanded the Angels throw in Tom Brunansky as
part of the Rob Wilfong-Doug Corbett deal.  He also found guys like Larry Hisle, Bobby Darwin, and Doug Corbett (who, like I said, was instrumental in bringing Brunansky to the Twins).  Brophy
was one of the original members of the Twins' front office when he was
hired in 1961.  He was later fired by then-team president Howard Fox in
1985 (the two never did get along), and he served as a scouting
assistant for the Astros before his ill health forced him to retire in
1996.  Sadly, he passed away in 1998.

F*ck!

Original entry posted http://plunking-gomez.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/07/fck.html.

• Slowey suffers setback in rehab

Well, there goes the season 
Ugh, I hope it's just a slight one.  The Slow Man was supposed to throw
a bullpen session today, but his wrist injury flared up again and was unable to do so. 
He's supposed to try throwing again on Wednesday, and the Twins are
holding off on any further decisions regarding treatment until then. 
So I'm going to hold off on any further panicking until then.  What is
certain, however, is that he won't be making his next scheduled
start on July 21 at Oakland.  Anthony Swarzak will get the nod instead. 

• Casilla up, Tolbert down, Harris back to the bench?

As LEN3 reported,
Alexi Casilla has been recalled from Rochester, while Matt Tolbert has
been sent back down.  It's essentially Casilla's last chance to prove
he can stick in the major leagues, or the Twins will probably be moving
him in the off-season.  Casilla struggled mightily at the plate earlier
this season, batting a mere .180/.242/.225, and all of the defensive
miscues certainly didn't help his case.  But he's been on fire since
his demotion to Rochester, batting .340/.379/.449/.827 OPS for the Red Wings.  Still, as Jason
Bartlett can attest, it's very difficult to get out of Gardy's doghouse
once you have been banished there.  Casilla will probably have to magically
turn into Chase Utley overnight to keep his job, and even that wouldn't
be enough.

With Casilla getting the start at second, this begs
the question as to who will be the everyday shortstop.  Gardy says he
will try to find playing time for both Punto and Harris, but this is
highly unlikely.  Punto will most certainly be the starting SS, and
Harris will almost certainly be back to the bench. The Twins are paying
Punto $4 million this year, so he and his .201/.319/.223 line won't be
playing the utility role.  Gardy has already said as much. 
And really, when you look at the numbers, neither one is exactly running away
with the starting job.  Punto is terrible at the plate, but he's a
career 21.0 UZR at the position, so his defense is good enough to make
him at least replacement-level.  Harris isn't very good on defense (he's a
career -11.9 UZR) but his .275/.318/.392 line makes him just a little
better than replacement-level, but not enough to just hand him the job,
either.  Now, if only there was a way to combine Harris' bat with Punto's glove...

• Gomez goes 3-for-4 with a home run and 5 RBI in series finale against White Sox

That goofball is bound and determined to make me love him. 

Actually, I pretty much already decided that the first time I saw him sniff his bat.

Happy Thoughts

Original entry posted here.

This is going to be one craptacular season for Twins fans, but I'm
done whining (for now). I prefer to focus on the good things that
happened this week:

• Giants' Jonathan Sanchez throws no-hitter

Moments like this are what makes it so much fun to be a baseball
fan.  When Sanchez struck out Everth Cabrera looking to complete the
no-hitter, his teammates reacted as though they'd just won the World
Series.  Randy Johnson, who's thrown a few of those in his career and
whose spot Sanchez replaced in the rotation, came up and hugged the
kid.  And his dad was moved to tears by his son's performance. 

And if Juan Uribe hadn't screwed it all up, Sanchez would have thrown a perfect game.  At least Aaron Rowand made a great running catch to preserve the no-no.

Of course, now I'm going to completely rain on his parade by pointing out that he no-hit the weakest offense
in all of baseball.  Granted, the Padres play in an extreme pitcher's
park and their numbers will always reflect that, but even when you
account for ballpark factors, this offense is pretty bad (this game was
in San Francisco, anyway).  That said, Sanchez's performance was still
masterful:  11 strikeouts, no walks, only the sixth no-hitter in
history with at least 10 Ks and no walks. 

On a semi-related note, Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times posted a list of the worst (and best)
lineups to ever be no-hit.  The Angels team that Eric Milton no-hit was
number five on the list, which isn't surprising since Milton is the one
of the most unlikely pitchers to ever spin a no-no.  The Twins team
that David Wells threw a perfect game against wasn't terrible enough to make the list, but they were probably about as good as this year's Padres team.

• Man Muscles is going to participate in the Home Run Derby

Oh, come on, you know he's going to win it.  There isn't anything he can't do. 
I do think it would be hilarious if Albert Pujols hit 60 bombs in the
first round, only to lose to Mauer because he wore himself out.

• Joe Crede has already earned his $7 million contract

It seems strange to write that, since he's got a weak .226 batting
average, but it's true.  When researching how awful the worst hitters
in the lineup are (and I was going to consider Crede one of them), I
came across some interesting numbers:

Joe Crede: .226/.293/.428/.721 OPS  11.4 UZR  1.8 WAR 

So
even though he doesn't hit for a high average, his bat has some pop
and his defense makes him one of the elite third basemen in the
league.  Furthermore, by providing some power and bailing out the
pitching staff on a consistent basis, his overall worth is already estimated at $8.2 million.  Now, you might not agree with the way Fangraphs calculates dollar values
for players (they think Roy Halladay will be worth $35 million this
year), but as long as he remains healthy there is little doubt that
Crede will be worth every penny the Twins are paying him.  Just ask the
pitching staff.

• The Royals trade for Yuniesky Betancourt

I am not trying to pick on Kansas City (I've already done that). I'm just glad he's off the market now so the Twins won't be tempted to trade for him (as others have suggested).  Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli,
probably the only fans the Royals have left (and Rany is threatening to
hang it up) have already summarized this deal in two very excellent
posts. 

Seriously, a lot of Royals fans are fed up with the
front office and disappointed in their team, and I don't really blame
them.  I remember when the Twins were horribly, mind-numbingly bad in
the mid-90s, and how hard it was to cheer for a team that didn't really
give its fans much to cheer for.  It was like this for nearly a decade,
and we all wondered if it was ever going to end, if we were ever going
to even have a decent team again.  That's right, we were dreaming of the kind of mediocrity
this team gives us now.  It kind of got me to thinking about false hope
vs. no hope, and which of the two I prefer.  And I guess that false
hope is better than none at all.  Yes, it can be frustrating to watch
your team hang around in the playoff picture all season long, only to fall short at the very last minute.  Or to have your hopes of winning a championship dashed in the first round of the playoffs every...single...time.  But jeezus, at least this way you have something to look forward to.

Besides,
Seligula is more than happy to relocate a small-market team that
consistently loses 90 games to a more lucrative market.  Believe me, I know.

Mired in Mediocrity

Original entry posted here.

At 43-43 44-43, this team is exactly average.  I'm certainly not the first person to notice this, nor am I the first to point out
that it's mostly because all of the great talent on this team is
balanced by players who have no business on a major-league roster.  The
awesomeness of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is balanced by the
suckitude of well, the entire second half of the lineup.  Nick
Blackburn is putting up the best numbers of his career, while Scott
Baker and Francisco Liriano are putting up the worst.  The comparison
between the best and worst players on the team is stark:

Hitters:

Joe Mauer:          .389/.461/.651/1.112 OPS  4.3 WAR
Justin Morneau:   .313/.390/.582/.971 OPS  2.8 WAR
Jason Kubel:    .306/.364/.540/.904 OPS  1.3 WAR
Denard Span:  .288/.375/.377/.752 OPS  1.7 WAR

Matt Tolbert:  .178/.272/.225/.497 OPS  -0.9 WAR
Nick Punto:   .211/.322/.234/.556 OPS  -0.2 WAR
Carlos Gomez:  .218/.277/.318/.595 OPS  -0.3 WAR
Delmon Young:  .270/.296/.349/.646 OPS  -1.2 WAR

The pitching is a slightly different story:

Pitchers:

Nick Blackburn:  2.94 ERA   4.94 xFIP  1.272 WHIP  1.82 K/BB  2.0 WAR
Kevin Slowey:  4.86 ERA   4.38 xFIP  1.412 WHIP  5.00 K/BB  1.4 WAR
Joe Nathan:  1.35 ERA   2.42 xFIP   0.750 WHIP  6.14 K/BB  1.4 WAR

Scott Baker:  5.31 ERA  4.24 xFIP  1.221 WHIP  3.90 K/BB  1.3 WAR
Francisco Liriano:  5.47 ERA  4.53 xFIP  1.490 WHIP  2.02 K/BB  1.3 WAR

Obviously
guys like Luis Ayala (0.1 WAR), Sean Henn (-0.2 WAR), and Jesse Crain
(-0.2 WAR) haven't been helping much, either.  The good news is that
none of these guys are in the bullpen right now.  The bad news is that
they were here long enough to cost the team wins.

There
are a couple of things worth noting here.  First of which is that, as
much as both Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano have struggled this
season, both are still above replacement-level (that is, both are more
valuable than some scrub picked up off the waiver wire), and both
obviously have tremendous upside.  So, unless the Twins are absolutely
blown away with an offer for either one, it would be wise to hang onto
them for now (and no, Jon Garland and his 5.28 xFIP is not that guy). 
Secondly, despite his .270 batting average, Delmon Young is still one
of the worst hitters in the lineup.  His .349 slugging percentage is
anemic, his 58/6 K/BB ratio is the worst on the team, besides providing
crappy defense in left (-9.1 UZR).  No wonder the Rays were so eager to
get rid of him.

Of course, this is
pretty much the way the Twins have operated for the past decade, so
none of this comes as a surprise.  The likes of Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and Rick Reed have rounded out a rotation fronted by Johan Santana and Brad Radke.  Dustan Mohr, Michael Restovich, and Michael Ryan have all patrolled the outfield alongside Torii Hunter.  After Corey Koskie left, guys like Tony Batista and Mike Lamb were manning third base until Joe Crede came along.  Jason Tyner, he of the one major league home run, was the DH for 31 games in three seasons with the Twins (when Rondell White and Ruben Sierra weren't available, of course).  Tyner, by the way, was featured on the "Best Persons in the World" awhile back when his current (former?) team traded him away for nothing.  And then there was the Luis Rodriguez-Juan Castro-Luis Rivas infield, with Terry Tiffee on the bench.  And these weren't even the worst Twins teams.

Obviously
there was a lot of talk about the Yankees' payroll during the series at
the Dome, and it's true that having a larger payroll gives a team more
flexibility. Don't get me wrong, this isn't a "Woe is us, how can we
ever keep up
with the Yankees and Red Sox?" post.  Simply spending a lot of money
doesn't necessarily guarantee that a team will even make the playoffs
let alone win a championship, and there is much more parity baseball
(especially the AL) than pretty much any other major professional sport
in this country.  It's just that a smaller payroll
gives a franchise a much smaller margin-for-error when making trades,
signing free agents, and even in the draft, since a bad move can
hamstring such an organization for decades. 

The Nick Swisher trade is a very good
example.  Now, the Yankees
acquired him from the White Sox for next to nothing, but even if he
doesn't work out, the team isn't completely sunk.  The Yankees
technically have six outfielders since acquiring Eric Hinske from the
Pirates, so they don't really need Swisher and could easily trade him if
he starts to decline. 
Compare that to the Delmon Young trade (I know, I know, they're not
really the same since the Young deal had a much higher risk, but bear
with me).  The Twins gave up a lot to
acquire Young and he has yet to live up to his potential.  To be fair,
Young isn't the only terrible hitter on this team (and he hasn't even
entered the prime of his career yet), but he needs to put up better
power numbers to make the trade worthwhile (and to justify giving him
so much playing time).  At this point, though, it's hard to argue that
the Twins wouldn't be a better team
with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.  Worse yet, his poor performance
and perceived attitude problems mean the Twins would have a tough time
getting anything of value for him should they consider themselves
buyers the trade deadline.  Like it or not, they're pretty much stuck
and simply have to hope that Young will eventually start to develop
some power.

By the way, I tend to consider the
Young trade karmic retribution for the A.J. Pierzynski trade. 
Although, when you think about it, the Young trade is even worse. 
Pierzynski was at least competent both at the plate and in the field,
and Giants fans only had to put up with him for one season.  Delmon, on
the other hand, is the gift that keeps on giving.  

Cheer Up! Things Could be Much, Much Worse!

Original entry posted here.

After being utterly and thoroughly owned by the Evil Empire this season, the Twins have slid back to the
.500 mark for the hundred-somethingth time (oh, and you're welcome,
Yankee fans).  They currently sit in third place, four games behind the
division-leading Kittehs and two behind the second-place Pale Hosers. 
All of which is very, very depressing.  But take heart Twins fans,
we're not the only ones sharpening our razor blades and drawing a bath:

The Royals are teh suck.  This is hardly news.  But this team has so many problems, it's difficult to know where to begin. I mean, good God, they replaced Sidney Ponson with Bruce Chen in the starting rotation!  What, Buddy Groom wasn't available?  Ooh, and now the infield will be manned by both Ryan Freel AND
Willie Bloomquist!  Obviously, GM Dayton Moore hates his job and is
trying his best to get fired.  That should just about do it.

The Cubs took a team that won 98 games last year and made the
playoffs for the third time in six seasons, and tore apart the roster
as rebuilding teams are wont to do. Perhaps it was simply an emotional
response to getting swept in the NLDS by the Dodgers, or maybe they
felt they needed to dump salary to expedite efforts to sell the team,
but they traded away key contributors like Mark DeRosa and Jason
Marquis without getting much in return.  The Baby Bears are currently
in third place behind the division-leading Cardinals and a Brewers team
that features both Jeff Suppan and Seth McClung in its rotation.  Now,
the Cubs are only three games out of first, but even with a recent hot
streak they still have the third-worst offense in the league (only the
Diamondbacks and the Padres are more futile at the plate). Of course, this is all a goat a cat Milton Bradley's fault.

The Diamondbacks have committed
77 errors this season, the second-most in baseball (only the Nats have
committed more).  Granted, errors and fielding percentage aren't
exactly the best way to measure a team's defensive efficiency, but I think if you commit three errors in one inning, it's safe to assume that you are, in fact, not good at baseball.

I'm going to refrain from taking shots at the Nati(o)nals.  It's just too easy.  I did get a kick out of the "Oh no: no O!" wardrobe malfunction, though.  At least Montreal Washington's ineptitude is entertaining:

(image courtesy chatterbalks.com)

Oh, and Man Muscles is now officially atop the leaderboard (if that's not enough, you can also see it here, here, here, and here).  He might not finish the season batting .400, but he has a good shot at winning yet another batting title.  So at least we have something to look forward to, I guess.