Happy Halloween

I love Halloween. Getting drunk, eating a shitton of candy, and watching scary movies is pretty much how I like to spend every Saturday, plus I don't have to cook or buy anybody anything. In the spirit of the season, these are my all-time favorite films:



A blind woman has a corneal transplant, and suddenly she can see dead people! I guess there's a Hollywood remake starring Jessica Alba, but I haven't seen it. I learned from the Grudge that Asian horror movies just don't translate well into American culture.



Based on the Korean folktale "Janghwa Hongreyon-jon", two sisters are tormented by their evil stepmother. Or are they? Again, there's a Hollywood remake that probably isn't worth watching.



I like Guillermo del Toro's films a lot, and his spanish-language work is pretty much his best. This film dealt a lot with the Spanish civil war and the rise of fascism in Spain.



An adolescent vampire romance in a similar vein as Twilight, except watchable.



This is by far the scariest movie I have ever seen. Usually scary movies don't really scare me because I know that things like vampires and ghosts don't exist in real life. But the way the film was shot, sort of documentary-style, made it appear as though the events in the film were actually happening. I thought the Hollywood remake Quarantine was actually pretty good, but the original is still the best.

Obviously, I am an Idiot: Preseason Predictions Revisited

Because there wasn't really much else to write about during spring training, I made a number of predictions about the upcoming Twins' season. I outlined what I thought would be some of the greatest strengths and weaknesses of the roster this year, and while I didn't put an exact number on wins and losses, overall I figured this team would be pretty average. And I was right about that part: the Twins did hover around .500 for most of the season before beating up on the Royals and White Sox (while the Tigers were in the midst of an epic collapse) to win the division. Now is as good a time as any to go over those predictions and see just how smart I am. I am a pessimist by nature, so let's start with the bad. I will go over the things I thought would go well in the next post.

• The rotation doesn't have much depth: Hey, I got something right! Of course, it doesn't take a particularly sharp baseball mind to figure out that five starting pitchers isn't enough to carry a team through the season. Starters are probably the most injury-prone players on the roster, and sure enough, three of the original five spent significant portions of the season on the DL. Luckily, nobody blew out a rotator cuff or anything, and the Twins did get solid contributions from Brian Duensing and trade deadline acquisition Carl Pavano. However, waiting until it was too late to address the issue forced the Twins to throw untested rookies Anthony Swarzak and Armando Gabino in the rotation before they were ready (and to keep sending Swarzak out there even though it was obvious he wasn't ready), and it nearly cost them the division.
  

• Joe Mauer might struggle to stay healthy this year: Heh. Well, he did miss the first month of the season with what is best described as pain in his butt. Then he went on to win his third batting title and set career highs in home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and general awesomeness. Man Muscles was a key contributor in the late-season push to win the division, something that didn't escape the attention of his peers. He also starred in what has to be my favorite Twins commercial thus far:

• The lineup still doesn't have much power: Well, that's mostly true. The Twins had four players hit 20 or more home runs in a season for the first time in franchise history, but the rest of the lineup is pretty pathetic. The 7-8-9 hitters are about as easy of outs as it gets, and Gardy's insistence on batting a (s)crappy middle infielder in the two-hole usually means the bases are empty when the batting champ steps up to the plate.
  

• The front office failed to address the bullpen issue: Actually, the bullpen ended up being one of the organization's strengths. The relief corps did get off to an unimpressive start, but after cutting dead weight in the form of Luis Ayala and Sean Henn, and with the additions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay, it became a pretty solid group. The Mayor was as reliable as ever, Jose Mijares had a good rookie season, and Joe Nathan was his usual amazing self (I never really realized how good Twitchy has been for the Twins until I saw this). It was quite awhile ago, but Twitchy also starred in my other all-time favorite Twins commercial:

"That's how you win Cy Youngs, baby" Oh man, I miss Johan.

• The infield and outfield defense will be mediocre at best: Hey, I was right again! Although, it doesn't take much prescience to see that great position players will probably continue to be great (barring injury or the inevitable age-related decline) and crappy ones will continue to be crappy (unless, of course, they realize that they suck and decide to do something about it). I know I harp on the defense a lot, but it's important for an organization that favors pitching to contact to field the best defensive team possible. The problem, however, isn't so much that the defense was bad, it's that the worst culprits didn't even make up for it at the plate. The worst defenders on the team, with the exception of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, are also among the worst hitters in the league. It's no wonder then, that this team floundered for most of the season and got swept out of the ALDS.
  

Payroll and the Postseason

I feel for Indians fans, I really do. Watching your favorite players leave town all the time because your team can't afford to keep them anymore is no fun, watching them pitch against each other in the World Series must feel awful. It's gotta be doubly painful when your own team was only one win away from the World Series just a few seasons ago. OK, full disclosure: I hated Clifford and Captain Cheeseburger when they pitched for the Indians, about as much as I can ever hate anyone I have never actually met. I certainly wasn't sad to see either one of them go. However, losing two of their best starting pitchers certainly hasn't been good for the Indians, and I'm not sure if it's good for baseball, either. Payroll and the salary cap are pretty touchy subjects, but ones I think are worth examining over the course of one over-long and windy post.

It's no secret that four of the six teams that made the postseason this year have among the highest payrolls in baseball. This isn't anything new; with a few exceptions, the higher payroll teams have pretty much dominated the postseason over the past decade. Now, spending a lot of money does not necessarily guarantee a postseason berth, much less postseason success. There are a number of teams (the Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Mariners, etc.) that have flushed hundreds of millions down the proverbial toilet in toxic contracts. However, there is also no denying that a bigger budget does give the front office a lot more flexibility. Not only do higher-payroll teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels have the cash to throw at the best-available talent on the free agent market, they can also afford to retain their own top talent. That's probably the greatest advantage the larger-payroll teams have over the smaller ones. The Yankees can keep Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera and go after C. C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox don't have to choose between keeping Josh Beckett and Jason Bay, and well, you get the point. Meanwhile, the Indians and the Twins have had to do the smart thing and trade away their expensive Cy Young award winners because they can't re-sign them and hope to keep the likes of Grady Sizemore and Justin Morneau on the payroll at the same time.

Of course, there are a number of well-run smaller-market franchises that have been successful over the past decade or so. By drafting well, locking up their young talent through the first few years of free agency, and making smart trades, it is possible to remain competitive while on a budget. It is very difficult, however, for even the smartest organizations to have any sustained success while continuously losing top talent to free agency. While draft picks do indeed provide their teams with some value, relying upon young talent to develop into superstars is always a risky proposition. There is also a ton of risk involved in locking up young players beyond free agency. For every Scott Baker, there is a Joe Mays. For every Ryan Braun, there is a Vernon Wells. Most smaller-market teams have at best a 6-7 year window of opportunity for postseason success, before their best players become free agents and they have to start the rebuilding process over again. And that's provided the front office doesn't make any mistakes in that period and key contributors manage to stay healthy. That isn't necessarily the case for larger-market teams. The Yankees can waste $40 million on Carl Pavano and win the division nine times out of ten anyway, no smaller-market team (and really, few larger-market teams) can say that.

I don't want to come across as whiny or bitter because my team was swept out of the postseason by a team whose number one starter is making more than the Twins' entire starting rotation combined. I certainly don't think that poorly run small-market franchises have anything to complain about. The Royals, for example, cannot complain about how tough it is to compete against the big mean Yankees when they waste $9 million on Kyle Farnsworth, $36 million on Jose Guillen, and trade a couple of promising pitching prospects for Yuniesky Betancourt. And I doubt an extra hundred million dollars in the budget would make Dayton Moore any smarter. I'm just saying that in baseball, as in life, it's always a lot easier to get by with an extra hundred million dollars in the budget.

There is one thing that bugs me, and I wouldn't even bring it up because it's such a ridiculous argument that isn't even worth wasting blog space dissecting, but I hear it all the time, and I'm tired of it because it's not true: larger market owners do not spend more money because they're more committed to winning. They spend more money because they have more revenue available, it's as simple as that. No owner, no matter how many billions he is supposedly worth (we'll ignore, for the sake of argument, that income and net worth are two completely different things) can afford to lose money on a baseball team just because he wants a WS ring. He can do it for a season or two, but not long enough to build a championship caliber team, and certainly not long enough to keep a core of young talent locked up through their prime. Case in point: yes, the Twins are owned by a billionare, but they were stuck in a horrible lease at the Metrodome that gave the proceeds from luxury boxes and concessions and all of those other cash cows that pretty much every other team in major league baseball enjoys to the Vikings. Obviously, they won't have this problem anymore when they move into Target Field and their payroll should increase to match that of other mid-market teams. And if it doesn't, well, fans and owners of larger-market teams (you know, the guys who have to pay the luxury tax and stuff) have every right to complain.

I have long opposed a salary cap in baseball, and I still do. Maybe I'll feel differently if the Yankees go on to win the World Series nine of the next ten years, but I don't want MLB to ever even resemble anything like the NFL, NHL, or NBA (seriously, the NBA salary cap is a joke). I do think that the current system is in need of reform, I mean, it's not entirely fair that one particular team was able to sign every single one of the best free agents on the market last year and keep all of its best players at the same time. I just don't think a salary cap is the answer (though I'm not exactly going to cry if MLB decides to institute one, either). It certainly hasn't done anything to prevent larger-market teams such as the Patriots and the Lakers from building the sort of dynasties their MLB counterparts enjoy. I don't think there are any easy ways to level the playing field, though revenue sharing and the luxury tax were a pretty good start. Since developing young talent is so important to smaller-market teams, maybe MLB needs to start enforcing slotting in the amateur draft more strictly, maybe it should institute some sort of entry draft for international free agents, or maybe it should do away with the draft altogether, I really don't know. Heck, even if things continue as they are, baseball itself probably isn't going to die. It's just a lot easier to cheer for your favorite team when you know they have a real shot at postseason success.

2009: What A Season It Was

The postseason isn't technically over with yet, but meh. I'll start caring about baseball again when the pitchers and catchers report, or if the Twins actually do something interesting in the offseason. In the meantime, I'd like to reflect on some of the good things that happened this year. Plenty of bad stuff happened too, but this is my blog and I'm in no mood to go over all that again. In no particular order:

• Game 163

Yeah, some of the excitement over that game has been tempered after getting swept out of the ALDS (Especially after that one particularly painful loss. Now let us never speak of it again). But it was, without question, one of the greatest games I have ever witnessed in my entire life. I mean, look at this graph:

Almost every single at-bat after the sixth inning is a high-leverage situation! This game might even better than games six and seven of the 1991 World Series, if only because I was only nine years old at the time and don't remember those games quite as clearly.

• The offense done 'sploded
  

After dropping a season-high six games in a row, the Twins took out all of their frustration on the Pale Hose, torching Bartolo Colon and the bullpen for 20 runs on 22 hits. Four of those hits left the yard, including Joe Mauer's second career grand slam. Heck, even Matt Tolbert joined the party with his first major-league home run. All that and some Blackbeard pwnage made for one of the most lopsided victories in franchise history (Interestingly enough, this is the second time in three seasons that the Twins have pasted the White Sox for 20 runs. This was the first). The Twins were 2-6 (Oops, I meant 1-5. I can't count, I tells ya) against the Fightin' Ozzies prior to that game. They pretty much dominated the Pale Hosers after that (um, except that one time), going 10-2 against them the rest of the way. Unfortunately, it wasn't exactly the start of a long win streak that would propel the Twins to the division title. They would later lose 3/5 of the starting rotation to injuries and struggle to stay afloat until September, when they won 17 of their last 21 games.

• Scott Baker two-hits the Indians

(via Fangraphs)

With a game score of 88, this was by far the best performance by a Twins' starter this season, including the postseason (and one of the best by someone not named Zack Greinke or Felix Hernandez all year). Of course, the post-fire sale Indians were hardly an offensive powerhouse, but Baker's performance was still masterful. He pitched a complete game, striking out five without walking anyone, and allowed only one extra base hit (a double to Asdrubal Cabrera). Scotty was coming off of one of his worst outings of the season, when he gave up six runs in only 4.1 innings against the Tigers in Comerica Park. And at first he looked pretty shaky, hitting leadoff batter Grady Sizemore with the second pitch of the inning. Scotty quickly recovered, however, retiring the next nine Indians in order.

Honorable mentions: Nick Blackburn came up big in two of the most important starts of his career (and he wasn't half-bad in the ALDS, either). In his best start of the season (and probably the second-best of anyone in the rotation), Francisco Liriano dominated the Royals, striking out eight and only walking one. Kevin Slowey struck out a season-high 10 batters in a game against the Cubs, whiffing nine, though he also gave up three runs in six innings

• Jason Kubel hits for the cycle

(again, via Fangraphs)

If it weren't for that tiebreaking game against the Tigers, this would probably stand out as the most dramatic game of the season. It was only April, but the Twins had already dug themselves a giant hole, losing seven of their first eleven games. Joe Mauer was still recovering from an inflamed sacroiliac joint, and the offense without him was, with a few notable exceptions, pretty weak. The pitching staff, both the starters and the bullpen, were getting shelled. And at first this game looked to be more of the same. The Twins pissed away an early 2-0 lead, allowing the Angels to score three runs in the fifth and five in the seventh, and were trailing 9-4 in the bottom of the eighth. They tagged Jose Arredondo and Scott Shields for three runs on three hits, but were still trailing 9-7. With runners on second and third and two out, manager Mike Scioscia opted to walk Justin Morneau and pitch to Jason Kubel. Reliever Jason Bulger hung an 0-1 curveball and Kubel Khan launched it into the seats, capping off his cycle (only the seventh such cycle in MLB history) and putting the Twins ahead for good.

Michael Cuddyer hit for the cycle this year, too, but in less dramatic fashion. It was during a pretty routine trouncing of the Brew Crew.

This game is a perfect illustration of why the intentional walk is seldom a smart move. I don't want to be too critical of Scioscia here: it was a relatively meaningless game in April, and he was essentially following conventional wisdom. Justin Morneau had gotten off to a hot start, batting .341/.348/.568 in his first eleven games. Jason Kubel was also swinging a pretty hot bat, but he had always been considerably less dangerous than the Mountie. Conventional wisdom dictates that in a high-leverage situation such as this, the right move is to pitch around the better hitter and take your chances with the weaker one. However, Kubel had already collected three hits in the game, two of which were for extra bases. Morneau, on the other hand, hadn't done squat. And even though Morneau is a better hitter in general, Kubel absolutely punishes right-handed pitching. And that's precisely what he did to Jason Bulger. It is rarely ever a good idea to put an extra batter on base if one can possibly avoid it, especially if doing so loads the bases, and especially if the next batter is a pretty darn good one. Obviously, if Bulger were lifted in favor of a lefty or if Nick Punto were batting behind Morneau, the move would have made more sense.

This is hardly a definitive list of anything, so if you think I missed something, feel free to add it in the comments section.

The Overrated and Yet Somehow Under-Appreciated Nick Punto

While working on my analysis of the offense, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that Nick Punto has actually been worth more than the $4.5 million he's getting paid this year. I was going to write a post about that, but Fangraphs' Jack Moore beat me to it. Moore wrote a pretty good assessment of Punto and his skills, although I think it would have been helpful to put his 2009 performance into perspective by comparing him to other position players. Admittedly, that is a difficult thing to do, since Punto rarely has a fixed position in the infield, but he spent most of his time at second base this year, so perhaps it would be best to just compare him to other American League second-basemen (I'll stick with the AL, since I don't really want to make a table comparing 100+ position players). And so here they are, ranked according to wins above replacement (minimum 170 plate appearances):

Name	Team	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Ben Zobrist	Rays	.408	15.6	8.5
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	.360	10.2	5.2
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	.358	9.8	4.6
Robinson Cano	Yankees	.370	-6.1	4.3
Aaorn Hill	Blue Jays	.357	-1.5	4.3
Brian Roberts	Orioles	.356	-8.8	3.4
Placido Polanco	Tigers	.321	12.1	3.2
Maicer Izturis	Angels	.348	6.0	2.9
Alberto Callaspo	Royals	.352	-7.8	2.7
Jose Lopez	Mariners	.325	1.8	2.6
Howie Kendrick	Angels	.341	2.2	2.1
Adam Kennedy	Athletics	.337	-4.6	1.8
Jamey Carroll	Indians	.317	2.7	1.5
Akinori Iwamura	Rays	.338	0.3	1.2
Nick Punto	Twins	.295	2.7	1.2
Mark Ellis	Athletics	.310	1.8	1.2
Omar Vizquel	Rangers	.301	0.0	1.1
Jayson Nix	White Sox	.319	4.5	1.1
Ramon Santiago	Tigers	.307	-0.6	0.4
Chris Getz	White Sox	.312	-5.8	0.2
Luis Valbuena	Indians	.308	-5.4	0.2
Willy Aybar	Rays	.328	-3.8	0.1
Matt Tolbert	Twins	.278	-2.6	-0.2
Alexi Casilla	Twins	.260	-9.4	-1.4

Punto was the 15th most-valuable second baseman in the league this year, and that's mostly because of his defense. Punto's .295 wOBA is second only to Yuniesky Betancourt's .271 as the worst of all qualified hitters in the league. However, I would argue that his versatility (Punto has played three different positions this season and is an above-average defender at each one) makes him more valuable to his team in general than other slightly above-average second-basemen such as Jose Lopez and Adam Kennedy, and probably even more valuable than the all-hit, no-glove Alberto Callaspo. He certainly isn't as valuable as someone like Maicer Izturis, who is above-average both offensively and defensively (as well as fairly versatile himself), but having him as a starter isn't exactly costing the team wins, either. Actually, the front office could probably just pick which position between second and short is most in need of an upgrade and have Punto start the other.

I think Punto is a good example of how a player might be overrated and yet somehow under-valued at the same time. People tend to love Punto because he's "scrappy" and "gritty" and he "plays the game the right way", often pointing to one or two brilliant defensive plays as evidence that he is one of the best defenders in the league. Except his defense, while solid, isn't quite that good, and is in fact just barely good enough to make up for his pathetic offense. And really, if it weren't for his versatility, Punto would be about as valuable to the Twins as Matt Tolbert.

Haters, on the other hand, point to his numerous baserunning gaffes, occasional defensive lapses, and paltry .322 on-base percentage as proof that Little Nicky has no place on any major-league roster anywhere. But his skills, limited as they may be, are still pretty valuable nonetheless. It isn't easy to find players that can play one position adequately, let alone three. He might not be one of the best hitters in the league, but Punto does take a lot of pitches (4.2 per plate appearance), and subsequently he tends to draw a lot of walks without striking out a whole lot. It's enough to make him worth $5.5 million this year, and his 2-year, $8.5 million contract, while hardly a bargain, looks to be at least market value.

So, How Good Was This Team? The Pitching

In my previous post, I looked at the offense and wondered how in the world this team won 87 games. With such an unbalanced lineup, the Twins needed either a lot of luck, a soft schedule, or fantastic pitching performances to come back from a seven-game deficit and capture the division crown. And looking at the pitching staff, it appears they benefitted from a little of all three.

The starters pitched pretty well through the month of September, when the team was fighting for a playoff spot:

	ERA	K/9	K/BB	IP
Scott Baker	4.05	7.0	1.82	40
Carl Pavano	5.06	7.4	3.89	42.2
Nick Blackburn	3.41	5.6	7.67	37.0
Brian Duensing	2.70	4.9	1.67	36.2

Pavano was a good pickup for the Twins, essentially filling in for the injured Kevin Slowey and keeping the struggling Anthony Swarzak out of the rotation. And in case you missed it, he also pitched a great game against a tough lineup in game 3 of the ALDS. I wouldn't mind too much if the Twins brought Pavano back next year, depending (of course) on how much money he wants. The Twins shouldn't commit more than 2 years and $12 million given his age, his injury history, and the fact that he isn't actually that good. Otherwise, they should just take those draft picks and run.

Rookie Brian Duensing was also a pleasant surprise, though I don't think he's quite as good as his Santana-esque ERA indicates. His K/BB ratio is mediocre at best, and his 4.97 xFIP pretty much screams "replacement-level". The Dunce does have good enough stuff to make a solid left-handed starter, however, and hopefully that will discourage the Twins from signing Jarrod Washburn.

I think it's also worth noting that Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn put up almost exactly the same numbers they did last year. Scotty went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA, 3.36 K/BB ratio, 4.25 xFIP and 4.33 tRA in 2008, compared to 15-9 with a 4.37 ERA, 3.38 K/BB ratio, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.39 tRA this season. Had he not gotten off to such a horrible start (a 9.15 ERA and eight home runs in his first four appearances), Baker would probably have an ERA closer to the 3.45 he put up last year. Blackbeard went 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA, 2.46 K/BB ratio, 4.55 xFIP, and 4.68 tRA in 2008, and went 11-11 with a 4.03 ERA, 2.39 K/BB ratio, 4.78 xFIP, and 4.95 tRA this year. Why bring all this up? Well, because it means that this is about as good as these guys are going to get. And that isn't a bad thing at all; they're both at least solid major-league starters under team control for the next few years (Baker's contract in particular is starting to look like a bargain). It's just that anyone who expects these two to pitch like aces on a consistent basis is going to be disappointed, they're just not that good.

The bullpen wasn't half-bad, either:

	ERA	K/9	K/BB	IP
Matt Guerrier	2.70	4.1	1.20	13.1
Jon Rauch	1.84	7.4	2.00	14.2
Ron Mahay	2.16	7.6	2.33	8.1
Jesse Crain	1.12	6.2	1.38	16.0
Jose Mijares	3.48	8.7	3.33	10.1
Bobby Keppel	3.60	4.2	1.40	15.0
Joe Nathan	3.38	11.3	2.86	16.0

Again, pretty solid performances from some surprising sources. Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay turned out to be pretty good pickups as well, solidifying what had been a shaky bullpen before the All-Star break. Rauch will be back next year, and it might not hurt to bring Mahay back, either. I wasn't exactly thrilled when the Twins acquired Mahay, but he's been an effective LOOGY and it is nice to have another lefty in the 'pen. Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain have been effective in low-leverage situations. Jose Mijares probably isn't as shaky as he's been since that unfortunate incident in Detroit, but he probably wasn't as good as his 2.07 ERA suggested, either.

Joe Nathan's performance in September was a little disappointing (he also surrendered four home runs), but hardly anything worthy of the "cowardly closer" nickname. Unfortunately, after his horrendous performance in the ALDS (although, to be fair, he certainly wasn't the only closer to shit the bed in the playoffs), the "Trade Joe Nathan" bandwagon has been in full force. Now, I don't think trading Twitchy in and of itself is a bad idea. He will be 36 years old next year and he is starting to show signs of possible decline. He's also going to get paid $11.25 million a year over the next couple of years, which is obviously a lot of money for a relief pitcher, even one of the best in baseball. The Twins really need to upgrade the left side of the infield and could always use more pitching help, so it wouldn't hurt to at least gauge interest in him.

Having said all that, Twitchy is still an elite closer and his possible replacements don't exactly fill me with much confidence. Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares have been solid, but I wouldn't trust either one to close out games (Guerrier in particular pitches to contact, which scares me to death when there are runners on base and less than two outs). I want to see if Pat Neshek can even pitch effectively after Tommy John surgery before handing him the job. Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney are both heralded as closers-of-the-future, but neither one has thrown a single pitch in the major leagues yet. If the Twins are absolutely blown away with an offer for Nathan, then by all means, they need to pull the trigger. No player should be considered untouchable if the price is right, especially a reliever. But dumping the best reliever in the bullpen just to provide salary relief is something an organization in the process of rebuilding should do. It doesn't make much sense for a team that hopes to contend for another division title next year.

Besides, there is one slight problem with trading Nathan simply to dump salary: Joe Mauer's contract extension. Mauer has often stated that he isn't interested in being the highest-paid player in baseball; more than anything, he wants to win a championship and he wants assurance that the front office is committed to winning a championship before signing with anyone. It would be difficult to convince him that this is the case if the Twins were to trade Twitchy without getting anything of value in return (Seriously, remember the kerfluffle over the Luis Castillo trade? The fallout from something like this would be even worse).

So, How Good Was This Team? The Offense

After floundering for the first five months of the season, the Twins went on an incredible 17-4 run to capture the division title. However, after being swept out of the ALDS by the Yankees, one has to wonder how much of this run was due to luck and how much due to actual talent. Looking at the lineup the Twins used during the month of September, it certainly looks like the former is the case. For the sake of brevity, I've decided to use weighted on-base average for the 2009 season (and if you need it, there's a detailed explanation of wOBA and how it is calculated here).

Denard Span	.359
Orlando Cabrera	.318
Joe Mauer	.438
Michael Cuddyer	.370
Jason Kubel	.383
Delmon Young	.312
Brendan Harris	.295
Matt Tolbert	.278
Nick Punto	.295

First of all, it's not hard to see how the Yankees managed to shut down the Twins. There are only four above-average hitters (.335 +) in this lineup and all except Cuddyer were left-handed. And since they were missing Justin Morneau, the Twins were stuck with backup catcher Jose Morales (.334) at DH (it's not quite as bad as Jason Tyner at DH, but still). Jason Kubel is horrible against lefties, and was clearly overmatched against Sabathia and Pettitte. Span and Mauer* hit lefties well, but without much power (career-wise, slugging .472 and .408 against lefties, respectively). Justin Morneau was slugging a respectable .500 against lefties this year, but he was out the entire series with a back fracture. Without any real right-handed power hitters in the lineup (or even four average right-handed hitters) it's no wonder the Twins struggle so much against left-handed pitching.

*In all of the fuss over Phil Cuzzi's blown call, somehow lost is the fact that, holy crap Joe Mauer got two base hits off of a lefty IN THE SAME AT-BAT, one of which went for extra bases. PAY THAT MAN HIS MONEY!!!!

Of course, a team cannot win 17 of their last 21 games on luck alone. They also need strong performances from the pitching staff (more on that in the next post), and a favorable schedule. And indeed, the Twins had a pretty soft schedule down the stretch. 24 of their remaining 32 games were against sub-.500 teams and all but seven were against division opponents, with six against the Royals, six against the Indians, and eight against the then-first place Tigers.

The offense does look as though it might be a problem next season. Any lineup with five below-average hitters is bound to struggle, let alone four exceptionally poor hitters, and the Twins can't expect the same level of production from the likes of Kubel and Cuddyer. Cuddyer has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, and at 31, is unlikely to put up another 30+ home run season. The Twins will probably pick up his option for next year (though they should probably trade him), but it would be unwise to keep him around beyond that.(Never mind, I am a moron who can't read. Cuddles has an option for 2011. Now move along people, nothing to see here.) Jason Kubel had a breakout season, but unless he learns to hit lefties (and he did show some signs of doing so towards the end of the season), he will probably take a huge step backward next year. Obviously, there is no guarantee that Mauer will even be with the team next year, and I wouldn't expect him to hit .360 again even if he is. Morneau was having a fantastic season until he got hurt, and he is just entering his prime, but it's likely that his strong first-half performance was an outlier (his wOBA has never been higher than .388 in seven major-league seasons).

Moving On Through Morose Delectation

I realize that I may have come across as somewhat bitter in my previous post but I'm a fan, not a professional sportswriter, and this series was especially frustrating. Not so much because the Twins lost to the Yankees, I mean, there really isn't any shame in losing to an opponent that is superior in almost every way. It's frustrating because the Twins did everything in their power to give the games away, and I would have liked to see them put up more of a fight. But I don't think it's healthy to dwell on such things, and so I think it's time to move on. And I think making fun of other people is the best way to do that. Because the only way to feel good about yourself is to make others feel miserable.

Spike TV published a list of the most obnoxious fanbases in sports (no, I don't watch Spike TV, I found this on teh internets), which was both spot-on and hilarious. You might as well quit reading now if you have no sense of humor about your favorite team (um, that's probably why you're on the list in the first place). Now, to be fair, every team in every league in every sport has obnoxious fans. We weren't in the top ten, but I know that Minnesotans can be pretty annoying sometimes. We're always whining about how our team gets no respect from the national media, even though Justin Morneau beat out a crapload of Yankees and Red Sox to win the MVP award in 2006. We also whine pretty much non-stop about our manager and our cheap-ass ownership, even though the team has won five division titles in the past eight years (and boasts some pretty elite talent, by the way). We're always complaining about how awful the Metrodome is, how it's one of the worst places to watch baseball in the country because the seating is so poor and it smells and who in the hell thought baseball should be played indoors anyway? At least when we're not busy bitching about the new stadium because it doesn't have a roof, that is. And flipping off the opposing team during a playoff game (while wearing a Bert Blyleven jersey, at that!) is pretty douchey:

(photo courtesy Getty Images)

And sometimes when things don't go our way, we express our displeasure by pelting the opposition with hats. Or hot dogs (although, in light of recent events, I think we can be forgiven for that one). Gosh, for people who are supposed to be so nice, we sure can act like jerks.

As for the fanbases that did make the list, there were few surprises. Except maybe all English soccer fans. All of them, really? I suppose stabbing opposing fans to death is taking a bitter rivalry a little too far, but Packer fans do that all the time and they're not on the list (Seriously, how are Packer fans not at the top of this list? They're fat, they're drunk, they actually leave the house dressed like this, and they emotionally abuse their own children for having the good sense to not be Packer fans). I hate to dump on Red Sox fans, especially after what happened yesterday, but I thought this was pretty spot-on:

Come on Sox fans, you had to have seen this coming. For God sakes, Ben Affleck has become the celebrity poster boy of your fanbase. For years you were the lovable losers with a humorous outlook and refreshing sense of humility that endeared you to the sporting world. Hell, you were the Susan Lucci of baseball and everyone loved you for it! But then, in 2004, after winning the World Series you became the nerdy girl who grew boobs one summer, got really hot, and became an unbelievable bitch to everyone around her because she didn’t know when this new found popularity or social success would end. Sox fans became more arrogant than Yankees fans ever were, and suddenly began spending Steinbrenner-type money while still bemoaning the Yankees' business structure. The irony, much like the douchebags that line Fenway Park, is getting out of control.

Yeah, that's the thing that really annoys me about Red Sox Nation, too (besides the fact that they call themselves a nation). You guys are not underdogs anymore. Your team has won two World Series championships in the past five years, they've made the playoffs almost every year since 2003, and they have the second-highest payroll in the American League. Your team is actually favored to win things now, embrace it.

But this one about Canucks' fans was by far my favorite:

It’s remarkable how arrogant the fan base of a team with zero Stanley Cups, no Hall of Fame players, and two homoerotic Swedish twins that seem physically afraid of the playoffs can act. It’s literally mind-boggling! These days, when they’re not too busy demanding trades on local radio shows or reminiscing about that year they almost signed Wayne Gretzky, you can usually find Canucks fans preaching about how hosting Jarome Iginla and the Canadian Olympic team will finally establish their city as a genuine hockey town (sort of like how marrying Lamar Odom made Khloe Kardashian a real celebrity – legitimacy by association).

Bwahahahaha, they consider themselves a legitimate hockey town even though they've never won the Cup! Wait...

Oh, FML

I suppose I should be happy that the Twins played relatively competitively against the Yankees despite suffering so many injuries. Well, besides all those baserunning gaffes. And misplays in the field. And stranding a hundred million baserunners. At least the pitching was pretty solid, anyway. Um, except in game one. And *sigh* in the ninth inning of games 2 and 3. I suppose I should be happy that the Twins even made the playoffs at all, considering how awful they were for most of the season. At one point it looked like they might lose 90 games, but instead they battled back and captured the division title. But fuck that. Losing sucks. Losing to the same fucking team all the fucking time really fucking sucks. I mean, come on, nobody wants to see a movie when they already know how it's going to end. It isn't any fun that way.

Or, in gambling terms, it's like betting against the house:



Whew, I feel sooooooo much better now.

Blackbeard

Alright, enough whining. Plenty of things went wrong for the Twins last night, but I do want to focus on something that went right: Nick Blackburn. He shut down the best offense in the American League for five innings, though he did run into some trouble in the sixth. That's really pretty amazing when you think about it. Blackbeard's stuff is about as average as it gets: he throws a sinker, a cutter, a perfectly acceptable changeup and a pretty decent curveball. He gives up a lot of hits and doesn't strike out many batters, but he doesn't walk many, either. He's the sort of pitcher the Yankees tend to punish, and they've hit him pretty hard the few times they've seen him. But not last night. The best they could do was one run on three hits, and they couldn't even buy a hit until the fifth. It's too bad Joe Nathan and the offense couldn't get him the win.

This isn't the first time Blackbeard has come up big for the Twins. Other than one mistake to Jim Thome, he pitched an absolute gem against the Fightin' Ozzies in the tiebreaking game last year (where the offense once again let him down). He shut down the Tigers in Comerica Park, bringing the Twins within a game of the division leaders. After getting roughed up in July and August, he went 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 7.67 K/BB ratio in September, when his team absolutely could not afford to lose any more games. He's basically a mediocre starter who somehow pitches like an ace in high-pressure situations. I don't know how to explain it other than the kid must have nerves of steel. Of course, it isn't over yet. He might have to face the Yankees again in game 5 (and we all hope he does), and they could certainly pound him next time.

"We're going to replace these Twins fans' dominant closer with Ron Davis. Let's see if anyone notices."

Earlier I wrote about Joe Nathan and what a great season he was having, and I stand by that. Even with a few gut-wrenching blown saves, and a few near-misses, he's still been pretty darn good. Except for last night, of course, when we really, really needed him. However, there is one thing that I neglected to mention in my analysis and it is something to be concerned about: his HR/FB rate has increased dramatically the past couple of seasons. Before 2008, the highest his HR/FB rate had ever been was 6.9, when he was still with the Giants in 2003, and he's only had HR/FB rates over 6 twice in his career. Last year it skyrocketed to 9.1, and this year it's 9.6. This is the second season in a row that his HR/FB rate is over nine, so it probably isn't a fluke. It's not unusual for closers to become more hittable (and thus give up more home runs) as they age, and perhaps this is just part of that process. But he's also been using more pitches to put hitters away, and it isn't like him to be a nibbler. I'm not sure if this is all just the beginning of natural, age-related decline, or symptoms of something much more serious.

To be clear, I am not on the ZOMG JOE NATHAN SUCKS WE NEED TO RELEASE HIM RIGHT THIS INSTANT!!!! LET GUERRIER/SLAMA/RAUCH BE OUR CLOSER!!!! bandwagon. Not in the least. At this point, there is still no one I would rather see pitching the ninth than Twitchy. Yes, even after what happened last night. He struck out 11.67 batters per nine innings this season for chrissakes; nobody else in the bullpen (and few in the league, really) even comes close to that mark. I'm just worried that there might be something wrong with him, something more than just his age.

Tonight, I am Extraordinarily Unhappy

I know the Twins are horribly overmatched. I know they're not supposed to beat the Yankees. I know they'll be lucky to avoid being swept. But that doesn't make what happened any less painful. Seventeen runners left on base (ugh, I wish there weren't so many easy outs in the lineup). Carlos Gomez with a costly baserunning gaffe. Joe Nathan with a blown save (seriously, what is it about him and Yankee Stadium?). A horribly blown call (is it just me, or does the umpiring seem especially atrocious this postseason?). Failing to drive in any runs with the bases loaded and no outs in extra innings. And a walkoff home run that would probably have been a routine fly ball in any other ballpark. This is, without question, the worst loss of the season, and the worst I can remember in a long time. Worse than that blown save against the Pale Hosers. Worse than that implosion against Oakland. Yeah, I know what I said about just being happy to make the playoffs, especially after beating Detroit in such dramatic fashion. I take it all back. I wish this was happening to the Tigers instead.

I suppose this is all karmic retribution for the Twins sneaking into the postseason by winning a game they didn't really deserve to win. I mean, if it weren't for that blown-hit-by pitch call against Brandon Inge, the Tigers would probably be the ones struggling to avoid a sweep by the Evil Empire. And I could looking forward to 2010 instead of wondering how I'm going to sleep tonight.

I guess if there's anything good to come out of all this, it's that Blackbeard pitched a pretty good game. He didn't make it out of the sixth inning, but he allowed only one run on three hits to a lineup that has pounded him in the past. The middle relievers were pretty good, too, shutting down the Yankees until Joe Nathan blew up in the ninth. Make no mistake, Nathan is the goat in this game. If it weren't for that home run to A-Rod, Phil Cuzzi would never have gotten the chance to fuck up royally in the first place.

I know I shouldn't count the Twins out just yet. They've been on the brink of elimination so many times this season, only to pull off improbable comeback after improbable comeback. But it's tough to muster any enthusiasm for this team, or frankly, baseball in general right now.

And Round 1 (Of Course) Goes to the Yankees

Well, the good news is that the Twins got through the toughest part of the Yankees' rotation. That's something, I guess. They even had the lead for one entire half-inning! I'm actually not all that upset about this loss. The final score suggests otherwise, but for the most part the Twins held their own against a tough pitching staff, pounding out ten hits against Sabathia and the bullpen. Brian Duensing was overmatched, but he also wasn't getting much help from the infield. There were a couple of missed double plays and a decent throw would have nailed Cano at the plate. It might not have changed in the outcome of the game, but there is a huge difference between a two-run deficit and a five-run deficit.

The infield defense was not very good. It had little to do with playing in Yankee Stadium or being tired or hung over or anything like that. The infield defense, with the exception of third base, hasn't been very good all season long. Despite finishing the season with only 76 errors (which probably has a lot to do with the rather generous Metrodome scoring), the Twins have among the worst defense in all of baseball and it nearly cost them the division (it's one of the reasons the Tigers* almost won it despite having a piss-poor offense). Only the Mets and Royals were worse. Yes, UZR has sample size issues and probably isn't the best measure of defense for a single season, but most of the current infielders have an unimpressive body of work. Orlando Cabrera (who used to be a solid defender but is clearly starting to show his age) and Brendan Harris have been particularly bad in one of the most critical positions on the field. Second base was a real problem until Nick Punto solidified the position. It's a topic I harp on a lot, but I don't think it can be said enough: an organization that preaches pitching to contact has to field the best defensive team possible. Finding a decent shortstop during the offseason should be a top priority.

*Detroit, as well as Seattle and Texas, all saw huge improvements in their starting pitching from 2008 to 2009 without making drastic changes in their starting rotations. All three made vast improvements in their defense, and it really made a difference. All three were near the bottom of the league in UZR last season, and all were in the top 6 this year. And all three improved their ERAs by nearly a run (Detroit and Texas also came pretty close to making the playoffs, while Seattle improved their record by 24 wins). See why I harp on defense so much?

This will be the end of the line for the Twins. They've had a good run, but the team is simply too banged up and overmatched to make it past the Yankees. They might steal a win or two, but this is pretty much it. Still, there is plenty of reason to feel optimistic about the team going forward. Justin Morneau will be back next year, as will Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek, and Boof Bonser. Obviously, they could use another arm or two in the rotation, but the pitching staff looks pretty solid. The bullpen looks to be pretty well set. The middle infield is a mess, but there will be a number of good options available on the free agent market. They signed a top pitching prospect in Kyle Gibson, and one of the most sought-after Latin American prospects in Miguel Angel Sano. This team has a chance to be something pretty special in the next few years.

But Wait, There's More!

I did a real horseshit job attempting to put into words what happened last night. Thankfully, the Twins' blogosphere is blessed with some of the best writers on the internets. These are just too good not to share:

Nick Nelson was there.

So was the Twins Geek. And haasertime from Alright Hamilton!

Sarah from Oh, It's THOSE Girls feels a little bad for the Tigers. But just a little.

Howard Sinker thinks this might the best game ever. Sorry, Craig Calcaterra, but I'm inclined to agree.

Randball and Twinkie Town break down all the important plays. Twinkie Town also has a great interview with Travis of Pinstripe Alley (by the way, I like the idea of the Yankees signing Jarrod Washburn a lot, if for no other reason than to keep him away from Bill Smith).

Sooze from babeslovebaseball has our postseason entrance exam. I think we passed.

And here is the postseason roster. OMG, that feels so good to write, even if it isn't much to look at.

Meanwhile, Bless You Boys, The Daily Fungo, and Mack Avenue Tigers reflect on a night of amazing baseball and stunning defeat.

And now it is time for a miracle. Go Twins!

Unbelievable

Depending upon your point of view, this is either the greatest comeback ever,

(via Fangraphs, of course)

or a choke job of epic proportions.




I don't think I have ever seen a more dramatic game in my entire life. Wow, just...wow. Both teams were playing as if their entire seasons depended on it. The Tigers obviously didn't want to be known as history's greatest chokers, and the Twins didn't want their incredible 16-4 run over the past couple of weeks run to be in vain. I just, I don't know what to say. Maybe I should just let the guys do the talking:

"I guess it’s fitting to say there was a loser in this game because we lost the game, but it’s hard for me to believe there was a loser in this game. Both teams played their hearts out. You can’t ask for anything more than that.” - Jim Leyland

"I did not have the ball hitting him. We looked at replays, too, and the replays we’ve looked at, to be honest with you, were inconclusive,” - Crew chief Randy Marsh on the blown hit-by-pitch call that might have cost Detroit the game.

“We just feel like we have nothing to lose, man.” - Denard Span

“We were dead and buried a couple times, and our team just kept coming back,” - Bill Smith

“No matter what we did, it seems like it wasn’t meant to be. This is the best game, by far, that I’ve ever played in no matter the outcome.” - Brandon Inge

“One of the best games I’ll ever play in,” - Joe Mauer

Oh yeah, and Man Muscles officially clinched his third batting title. He finishes the regular season batting .365/.444/.587 with a career-high 28 home runs. Not too shabby.

Detroit, meanwhile, has to be wondering what the hell happened. They led the division since May 10th. They had a seven game lead on September 6th. They had a three game lead on October 1st, with only four to play. No team in the history of major-league baseball has ever choked a way a lead like that. Not even the Mets.

The Twins now face a Yankee team that is superior to them in every way. Their pitching is better, their defense is better, and their offense is a little bit better. New York is obviously the favorite to win this series, and I don't care. I don't think I will ever see a better game than the one I saw tonight, and whatever happens in the postseason, it was all worth it. Wait a minute, a mediocre Twins team facing a heavily favored opponent that they almost certainly have no chance of beating? That story sounds kind of familiar. I wonder where I've heard that one before...

If you're not depressed yet, here are the probable pitching matchups for the ALDS:

Game 1:

Brian Duensing: 3.64 ERA 114 ERA+ 4.10 tRA 1.71 K/BB. The Dunce wasn't supposed to be in the rotation, or with the major-league club at all. This should be Kevin Slowey's spot. The best-laid plans of mice and men, I guess. The Dunce has faced the Yankees only once before, in a relief appearance shortly after he was called up. It didn't go very well. He's never pitched in the postseason, either. Good luck with all that.

vs.

C. C. Sabathia: 3.37 ERA 133 ERA+ 3.99 tRA 2.94 K/BB. Yeah, he's got a seven-something ERA in the postseason, but Sabathia owned the Twins when he was with Cleveland. I am already penciling this one in as a loss. And no, I am not dropping the periods from his name.

Game 2:

Nick Blackburn: 4.03 ERA 103 ERA+ 4.66 tRA 2.39 K/BB. Blackbeard finally gets to pitch in the postseason! He hasn't actually done that yet, it just seems like it. He was the starter in the tiebreaking game in Chicago last year, and he also pitched a few couple of must-win games against the Tigers and Royals last week. He's been pretty good in these situations. I guess if the Twins have a chance to win any of these games, it would probably be this one.

vs.

A. J. Burnett: 4.04 ERA 110 ERA+ 4.79 tRA 2.01 K/BB. Those numbers are pretty good, if not exactly what the Yankees were hoping for when they signed Burnett to that 5 year, $82.5 million deal. Interesting fact: Burnett lead the league in wild pitches this year.

Game 3:

Carl Pavano: 5.10 ERA 86 ERA+ 4.50 tRA 3.77 K/BB. He's only faced his former employer a couple of times this year, giving up four runs on eleven hits in thirteen innings, including a home run. I can't wait to hear all of those lookit-Carl-Pavano-is-pitching-against-the-Yankees-in-the-postseason stories.

vs.

Andy Pettitte: 4.16 ERA 107 ERA+ 4.74 tRA 1.95 K/BB. Another Yankee pitcher that the Twins have never been able to solve. He's been pretty good in the postseason, too.

And the rest? Well, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. I know the Yankees are probably going to win this series. I just want them to have to work for it. I want the series to go all five games, with each game a nailbiter. I don't think that's too much to ask.

Still Alive

Once again, it will take more than 162 games to determine the winner of the AL Central. The Twins thumped the Royals while the Tigers held on to defeat the Mighty Whiteys in Comerica Park. Jason Kubel provided nearly half of the offense himself, with a pair of 3-run homers off of Luke Hochevar. Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer decided to join the homer party too, which was nice because the pitching looked pretty shaky at times. I have been skeptical that this team would ever be in a position to make the playoffs. Detroit had a seven game lead just a few weeks ago and it wasn't very likely that the Twins could erase such a huge deficit with so few games left to play. So many things would have to fall into place, and with the way things had been going all season long, there wasn't much reason to think that they would. They still haven't actually clinched anything yet, and they could fail epically against the Tigers on Tuesday. The pitching matchup does seem to favor the Twins, at least on paper, and at least this time the tiebreaking game will be at home. Of course, none of that means crap in a one-game playoff. I have no idea what is going to happen, and to be honest, the suspense is killing me:

Whatever happens the rest of the season, there's no denying that our Twinkies have enjoyed quite a run for most of the decade. So far they've won four division titles and have come pretty close a couple of other times. For the second season in a row, it is going to take more than 162 games to kill them dead. They've only posted two losing seasons, once in 2000 when they finished the regular season with the worst record in baseball (at least they got the top pick in the 2001 draft), and once in 2007 when they went 79-83. I've chastised the front office for some of the moves they've made (and failed to make), but they've managed to put a competitive product on the field every year for nearly ten years. And that isn't an easy thing for any franchise to do; it's even tougher with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball (yes, even in a relatively weak division). The Twins' payroll has consistently ranked amongst the lowest in MLB, and this season is certainly no exception. Their $67 million payroll is ranked 24th in all of baseball, ahead of only Tampa Bay, Oakland, Washington, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and the Marlins. And of those teams, only Florida and Oakland have put together a similar run of winning seasons (though Tampa Bay is poised to join that list), and only Oakland has had more postseason appearances. The Twins have been very good at getting the most for their money, even if it hasn't led to much postseason success.

Thursday Afternoon is Alright for a Bench-Clearing Brawl

(photo credit: Duane Burleson - AP)

Things got ugly in the later innings of yesterday's series finale against the Tigers. For some reason, perhaps because he didn't appreciate the Tigers stealing bases while trailing by six runs or perhaps he was encouraged to do it by a teammate, Jose Mijares thought it was a good idea to plunk Adam Everett. Yes, Adam Everett. Except he failed miserably (*facepalm*) and ended up walking the wispy shortstop (he of the .288 on-base percentage. *double facepalm*). Jim Leyland took umbrage when home plate umpire Angel Hernandez warned both benches and was subsequently ejected. I don't blame him. Why issue warnings to both benches when nobody actually got hit? He should have just tossed Mijares, which would probably have prevented the ugliness that was to come. Jeremy Bonderman then beaned Delmon Young in the knees with a fastball in retaliation (I don't think that part was intentional. Bonderman was probably aiming for the middle of his body, but being Jeremy Bonderman, missed and got him in the knees instead). Young was understandably upset, but not at Bonderman. He was angry at Mijares, who started the whole thing by throwing at Everett for whatever reason. The benches cleared but there wasn't much actual fighting, since Young really wanted to punch his own teammate and not the man who nearly took out his kneecaps. Mijares apparently feels bad about the whole thing, and I don't think it's fair that his manager and his teammates were so eager to throw him under a bus afterwards (he is a rookie, after all). Especially, as Patrick Reusse speculated on his show this morning, if he was encouraged by someone in the dugout to retaliate for Marcus Thames' questionable takeout slide (it does seem odd that Mijares, who isn't known as a headhunter, would suddenly get upset because the Tigers were running on him).

Leave it to the Twins to win just enough games in the series to keep their faint playoff hopes alive but not enough to actually control their own destiny. Twins Geek has a great preview of both the Twins/Royals and Tigers/White Sox series, which will settle the Central division once and for all. Probably. I don't know, I just have this feeling that, because such a big deal was made over the potential conflict with the Vikings/Packers MNF game should there be a need for a one-game playoff, there will in fact be a need for a one-game playoff. It would be a fitting end to a season in which the Tigers have tried their best to give the division away, while the Twins stubbornly refused to take it.