Housekeeping and an Interview!

Topper Anton, who writes the fantastic Curve for a Strike, was kind enough to feature me in his "Twins Bloggers:  Get to Know 'Em" series, and you can read all about it here.  I haven't been doing much writing lately, since you know, I'm really not supposed to, but I've been otherwise ignoring doctor's orders and doing some redecorating up in this piece.  I've added some new features and new links in my sidebar (check it out, your blog is probably now in it).  I still don't have a new name for this thing yet, though I'm not exactly in a big hurry to change it.  Hey, that sounds like a job for you, the reader.  Yes, both of you.  If you have any suggestions for a new name, please feel free to leave them in the comments.  Or if you prefer, you can email me using the handy form I created in my sidebar (don't worry, it goes straight to my email and doesn't get published).  Maybe I'll put the best ones to a vote, and whoever wins gets, I don't know, like $5 or something.

Emm Vee Pee: Your Sideburned Overlord

I'm not really supposed to be doing any unnecessary typing, so I'm gonna make this brief (well, relatively speaking).  Joe Mauer won his third first MVP award this year, in nearly a landslide.  You could make a case for Zack Greinke, Ben Zobrist, and yeah, probably Derek Jeter, too, but of the three, only Greinke was having a historic season on par with Mauer.  He also lead one craptastic Twins team that really had no business in the postseason into the postseason, and it certainly isn't his fault they got swept in the ALDS:  he batted .417/.500/.500 in 14 plate appearances against New York, despite being robbed of an extra-base hit.  Mauer won his third batting title this year as well, something that no other catcher in MLB history has ever done (heck, no other catcher in the American League has ever even won one).  I mentioned somewhere before that Man Muscles was on the verge of breaking a couple of records:  Mike Piazza's 1997 season as the all-time greatest for a catcher, and the franchise single-season OPS record.  Let's see how he did:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Piazza	.362	.431	.638	1.070	185
Mauer	.365	.444	.587	1.031	170

Well, it's awfully close. Since wins above replacement isn't calculated as far back as 1997 (and I'm certainly not going to take a stab at it), let's use wRAA (runs above replacement based on wOBA) as the tiebreaker:

Piazza:  63.9

Mauer:  54.9

Ooooh, so close, but it looks like Piazza is the winner here.  He also smacked 40 dingers that year, while Man Muscles smacked a more modest 28. As for the franchise single-season OPS record, Man Muscles again came up a bit shy of the 1.056 mark set by Goose Goslin in 1928.  However, if you don't count the Senators' years (and, sadly, the organization usually doesn't), then he is in sole possession of the single-season OPS record, surpassing the 1.019 mark set by Rod Carew in 1977 (who also won the AL MVP that year).  Actually, Mauer is already in the top five in all sorts of franchise offensive categories, both career and single-season, and he's only 26!  Obviously, it's far too soon to start calling him the GREATEST CATCHER EVAR!!1!, or even in franchise history for that matter, since he's only six seasons into his major-league career.  Catchers tend to break down much faster than other position players, so there is the risk that Man Muscles will go all Jason Kendall on us (something the front office should keep in mind when working out a contract extension).  But I'll address all of that once the two sides actually agree to an extension. Um, if the two sides ever agree to an extension, that is.

Oh, and he sexy:

Update: You can see video of his press conference here.  There are, of course, better articles about the man who is passively running this team by Joe Posnanski, Aaron Gleeman, and Nick Nelson, as well as pretty much everyone else in my sidebar.  And, yes, it is a very loose comparison, but Big League Stew points out that Mauer and Mark Prior are the Michael Jordan and Sam Bowie of the 2001 draft (you can read Patrick Reusse's take here).  Now, let's get that contract extension worked out before Christmas, so that statue of our sideburned overlord in front of Target Field doesn't look ridiculous.

In Retrospect: The 1995 Twins

Soooo, it turns out the strange pain and numbness in my forearms and wrists and hands is from carpal tunnel.  Fantastic.  I'm probably not going to need surgery, but I am going to have to limit my non-work-and-school related computer usage for at least the next 4-6 weeks.  So, depending on how good I am at following instructions, this will likely be the last new blog post in quite awhile. 

I've written about the 2002 team and how they were the first one worth watching in nearly decade, but I'd like to examine some historically bad Twins teams, too.  The 56-88 1995 squad wasn't the worst in franchise history (it's difficult to compare teams from different eras, but that distinction probably goes to the 1904 Washington Senators), and frankly, I couldn't decide whether this or the 1999 team was the worst of the decade.  So, I've decided to write about them both.  The 1999 team was probably worse in almost every way than the 1995 team, but the 1995 team signaled the end of an era for the organization.  Only four years after winning the World Series, the Twins were in trouble.  Most of the talent on that team had either left via free agency, retired, or simply gotten old.  They hadn't had a winning season since 1992, and seemed to be getting worse.  GM Terry Ryan (who was only in his second season as GM, after taking over for Andy MacPhail in 1994) decided to scrap the whole thing and embark on a massive rebuilding project that would last for six seasons, until the Twins finished with an 85-77 record and barely missed the postseason in 2001.

I Want Placido Polanco on My Team, and Here's Why

He's good at baseball.  More specifically, he's one of the best defensive second basemen in the league, and he certainly deserved to win the Gold Glove this year (Yeah, the voters got one right.  I know, I was shocked too).  I talked a little bit about the problems with UZR in the Michael Cuddyer post (seriously, read David Gorski's comment, he did a much better job explaining it than I did), but that mostly applies to outfielders who play in goofy ballparks.  It seems to be pretty accurate for everyone else, particularly infielders, since park effects don't usually affect them quite as much.  Polanco finished the season a +11.4, making him the best of all qualified second baseman last year, and is a +55.2 since 2002.  That's pretty darn good.  In contrast, Twins' second-basemen were a putrid -11.1, and that's only after Nick Punto (a solid +3.3) stepped in halfway through the season.  Alexi Casilla (-9.6), Matt Tolbert (-3.4) and Brendan Harris (-1.4) were horrible, although they might suffer from sample size issues (Another issue with UZR altogether: it doesn't fare well with relatively small sets of data.  It takes at least a full season, and sometimes three, to get an accurate measurement).

Polanco is 34 years old, and while he doesn't seem to be slowing down much defensively, his offense might be another matter.  His weighted on-base average has been declining steadily for the past four years, and at .321, is the worst it's been since 2006.  That isn't a terrible mark though, and it's a vast improvement over what the Twins got out of Punto (.295), Casilla (.260), Harris (.295) and Tolbert (.278) last year.  At worst, Polanco will be a slightly below-average hitter while providing well-above average defense, and would still be a huge upgrade over any of the current in-house options. He's also right handed, which should help balance the heavily left-handed lineup (especially since you know Gardy is going to bat him second).

What makes Polanco most attractive, however, is that he projects to be a type B free agent. The Twins would only have to sacrifice a sandwich pick at best if they sign him, and that's only if Detroit offers him arbitration.  Which they probably won't do, since they're apparently trying to cut payroll and aren't going to want to risk giving him a ginormous raise.  Unfortunately, this will also make Polanco very attractive to pretty much every other team looking for middle infield help, and that could push his price tag well out of the Twins' reach.  The free agent class of second basemen is pretty deep this year though, so the Twins have absolutely no excuse to not find a decent one before spring training.  Even if Polanco isn't it.

Plus his name always makes me think of Placido Flamingo:

In Retrospect: The 2002 Twins

As I promised (threatened?) earlier, I am planning to spend the offseason examining notable Twins teams and former players.  First up, let's look at the 2002 Twins.  It was the first Twins team to make the playoffs since 1991, and the last Twins team to win a postseason series.  They finished the season 94-67, ensuring their second consecutive winning season (it was the first time since 1992 that the Twins posted back-to-back winning seasons).  Like most Twins teams since 1961, they had a pretty mediocre offense and some fantastic starting pitching.  A closer look at some of the major contributors after the jump:

Cuddyer is Coming Back

As reported in the Star Tribune, the Twins picked up Michael Cuddyer's option for 2011 (Yes, you read that right.  2011.  It's an interesting clause in his contract).  Predictably, ESPN's Rob Neyer jumped all over the decision:

No, the difference between Cuddyer's salary and his value is not a great deal of money. But the Twins have a history of overspending on decent players while complaining about the high price of truly great players. Remember, it was just a year ago that they couldn't afford Johan Santana but quite happily blew $9 million on Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. And if they're not able to keep Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the long term, their money mismanagement is simply going to drop them from contention.

Fangraphs' Jack Moore wasn't impressed, either:

It’s very hard for a team to compete when paying a starting player 10.5 million dollars to contribute less than 1 win. It’s even harder for a team in the economic condition that the Twins are. This move seems more like an appeal to the fans rather than an attempt to build a winning team. The better way to appease your fans, however, is to win baseball games. Cuddyer is a slightly above average hitter who is a complete defensive non-factor. He helped the Twins win games as a cost-controlled young player, but the money he will make can help the team much more than he can. The Twins needed to let him go.

Under ordinary circumstances, I would be inclined to agree.  Cuddyer's 3-year, $24 million deal (with that curious option for a fourth year) is probably the worst contract currently on the books.  He's been a good, if inconsistent, hitter for most of his career, but he's one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball (at least according to Ultimate Zone Rating, more on that in a minute), and a smaller-market team can't afford to waste so much money on such a middling player.  But, and I can't stress this enough because so many analysts outside of Minnesota seem to forget this:  the Twins are opening a new ballpark next year and will see an increase in revenue since they won't have to share it with the Vikings anymore.  For the first time in nearly thirty years, the Twins will get to keep whatever money they make from Target Field all to themselves.  I don't know how much payroll is going to increase, but it isn't unreasonable, even in the current economic climate, to expect the 2010 payroll to be somewhere in the $85-95 million range (which is about average for a medium-sized media market like Minneapolis).  Spending nearly $20 million over the next two years for a 2-win (at best) corner outfielder is foolish for a team whose projected payroll is $65 million, but it isn't so bad for an $85-95 million team.  And as Sean at Fire Gardy notes, the current crop of free agent corner outfielders isn't particularly impressive.  It's an aging and declining group for the most part, and while there might be cheaper options available on the free agent market, they probably won't be much of an improvement.  The only way dumping Cuddyer makes sense for the Twins is if they sign Mike Cameron to play center, and then move Denard Span to one of the corner outfield spots.

The biggest knock against Cuddyer's value is that he's such an awful defender, at least according to UZR (his career -34.4 is among the worst of all active players).  And while it's true that Cuddles doesn't have much range, I'm not sure if his defense is really that bad.  One of the biggest problems with UZR (and most advanced fielding metrics, really) is that it doesn't adjust for playing in unique ballparks very well.  Don't get me wrong, UZR is probably the most accurate defensive metric we have and I use it a lot in evaluating player defense, but it does have its limitations.  It doesn't really to know what to do with quirky ballparks, like the Metrodome and Fenway Park, and thus it tends to rate outfielders who regularly play in those parks rather poorly.  For example, Red Sox left fielders have been among the worst in baseball since 2002 (as far back as we have reliable data).  And while Manny Ramirez was playing left for most of that time (and there is little doubt that Manny is a terrible outfielder), it appears that nobody can play left field adequately in Boston.  His replacement, Jason Bay, has seen a steep decline in his defensive numbers since coming to Boston.  Manny on the other hand, has actually improved a bit defensively since moving to LA, though at -15.4 per 150 defensive games, he still isn't very good.  The same thing can be said for the Twins' right fielders (and their outfielders in general, except for Carlos Gomez), who have been mediocre at best over the past eight seasons.  Now, I don't think that Cuddyer is one of the best right fielders in baseball, even accounting for the right field baggy in the Metrodome. He's probably still below average, and it's likely that he really is as bad as UZR makes him look.  But we won't really know until he plays full time in a ballpark that's actually designed for baseball.

Re-Re-Visiting the Santana Trade

Boy, things have changed a lot since the last time I did an analysis of the deal that sent Johan to that other New York team.  Now that Carlos Gomez has been banished to the land of cheese and bratwurst, there really isn't anyone left.  Where did everybody go?

Carlos Gomez:  Well, we know what happened to Go-Go. I do think that this is a good move, though I am really going to miss that goofball. Good job not getting hosed in a trade, Bill Smith!  Now go out and get us a bunch of strikeout pitchers so the steep decline in outfield defense won't be such an issue. 

Philip Humber:  Designated for assignment, now a free agent.  He didn't spend much time with the major-league club, but he was awful.  Humber is living proof that not all Tommy-John surgeries are successful.

Kevin Mulvey:  Claimed on waivers by Arizona, essentially completing the Jon Rauch deal.  Mulvey wasn't terribly impressive in his first stint with the Twins, but he mostly pitched out of the bullpen and didn't get much of a chance to start.  It isn't easy for a full-time starter to transition to the bullpen, especially to perform mop-up duty, but even so I doubt Mulvey will be little more than an average major-league starter.  His minor-league numbers certainly don't suggest otherwise.

Deolis Guerra:  The only prospect from the original trade still on the roster (for now), and the other top prospect (besides Gomez) from the Mets.  He was promoted to AA in July, and finished the season with a 5.17 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.26 WHIP and 2.88 K/BB ratio.  I don't know what to make of Guerra, honestly.  He has spent four years in the low minors so far, which is never a good sign, but he's only 20 years old and is still awfully young for his level.  Eh, if he can fix the problems with his delivery, he might be pretty good.

So, there you have it.  Two seasons later, one prospect has been DFA'd, one traded for a season-and-a-half of a good (but expensive) reliever, one somewhat promising pitching prospect remains in the system, and the centerpiece of the deal traded for a shortstop.  It's obvious that the front office is trying to win now and not waste the Mauer and Morneau years (and hopefully convince their All-Star catcher to stick around), or they probably wouldn't have given up so soon on so many prospects from such a blockbuster trade.  Especially Gomez, an elite defender who could be on of the best center fielders in all of baseball if he were even an average hitter.   Still, a trade that didn't look very good to begin with looks even worse now.

Goodbye, Go-Go. *Sniff* This Blogger is Going to Miss You.

Well, our long search for a starting shortstop is over for the time being.  In a trade that came out of nowhere and shocked the estimated one hundred thousand people living in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the Twins sent Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J. J. Hardy.  I can't say I hate the move.  The Twins desperately needed a shortstop, and Hardy is a good one.  He had a poor 2009 season, but he's batted .262/.323/.482 in four major league seasons and is at least an average defender.  He's also relatively cheap and under team control for the next two years.  And Gomez, well, he had a ton of potential but had yet to fulfill any of it.  He had a lot of range and could track down almost anything hit to the outfield, but that boy could not hit, period.  He couldn't hit for average, he couldn't hit for power, though he could beat out infield hits and occasionally get on base that way.  The flyball pitchers on the staff, namely Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, will almost certainly miss the little scamp.  The groundball pitchers, namely Nick Blackburn and everyone else (For some reason, I thought the Twins had more groundball pitchers than they really do. It pays to look these things up before posting them), not so much. 

This also means that the Twins won't be bringing Orlando Cabrera back.  Not gonna lie:  that makes me a little sad.  I liked O-Cab, even though he couldn't really field the position anymore, and he didn't get on base very much, either.  I would much rather have Hardy at short, since he's younger and cheaper and better in almost every way, but I feel a little bad that O-Cab (and his family!) will have to find his fifth new home in three seasons.  Gosh, what a sucky day for Alexi Casilla, too.  His best friend gets traded and now his mentor probably won't be back, either.


I suppose I have to change the name of my blog now.  Not looking forward to that, although it is my blog and I can call it whatever I want, so I suppose I don't really have to change the name if I don't want to.  I dunno, I'll think about it.  In the meantime, a photo retrospective of some of Go-Go's finest moments in a Twins uniform:

 

 

 

 

and of course,

 

Offseason Outlook

Well that was fun. Yesterday, the Twins outrighted Brian Buscher to AAA, then not five minutes later, it was announced that the Rays were close to dealing Akinori Iwamura. Of course, the Twitterverse blew up with speculation that Aki was coming to Minnesota, but alas, it was not to be. For some reason, he was dealt to the Pirates instead. It's a shame, too, because Aki would have fit in well with the Twins. He can play second and third and, get this, he can hit! Iwamura is a career .281/.354/.383 hitter, so he doesn't have much power but he does get on base a lot. Well, a lot more than Alexi Casilla, anyway. *Sigh* Oh well, there are still plenty of other fish in the sea. The Twins have a lot of work to do in the offseason, and as usual, the Twins' blogosphere is on top of it:

• On a more personal note, I do feel a little bad for Buscher. Getting outrighted/released is a lot like getting fired, and that really sucks. Buscher as a player wasn't really anything special: he made decent contact and drew a lot of walks, but he didn't have much power and couldn't hit lefties. He also was terrible on defense, and since roster space is at a premium, Buscher became expendable. There is a small chance he might remain with the organization, but most likely he'll opt for free agency and a fresh start somewhere else. Best of luck, Justin Morneau's buddy!

• Should the Twins try to retain any of their impending free agents? Twinkie Town weighs the possible risks/rewards of re-signing Joe Crede, Josh Johnson does the same for Carl Pavano, and Nick Nelson for Orlando Cabrera. What do I think? Maybe (if Luke Hughes isn't going to stick at third, if Danny Valencia isn't ready, and if he isn't too expensive), yes (again, if he isn't too expensive), and no (he's declining both offensively and defensively, the Twins can and should do better).
  

• Granny Baseball examines the nightmare that is the 40-man roster and the prospects that might need protection from the Rule V draft. There's a lot of them, and there are only a few available spaces on the roster. I am really glad that I don't have to make these decisions, I just get to second-guess them.

• One way to clear space on the roster is to simply dump a crapload of dead weight, and Twinkie Town looks at all of the possible non-tender candidates. Barring any sort of trade, Boof and Glen Perkins will probably be back, since the rotation isn't very deep and the Twins are loath to simply let their major-league ready pitching talent walk away. Well except for Jesse Crain, who will receive a $2 million raise in arbitration and I doubt the Twins will want to pay him. Brendan Harris, also due a substantial raise, is a pretty average hitter and a pretty below-average defender, so it's unlikely he will be back. The Twins will probably go with the younger, cheaper, similarly mediocre Matt Tolbert as a utility infielder instead.

As for this blog, well, I think I'm going to focus more on Twins' history during the offseason, particularly the Senators days. The Twins tend to forget that the organization existed before 1961, and that's too bad because Washington fielded some really good teams (and some really bad ones, too). I do have some other features that I'd like to play with, though I'm still working out some of the bugs. I'll weigh in if and when the front office actually does something, but I don't really have a desire to go through all of the team's needs and which players they should target via trade or free agency. These other blogs (and book!) do such a good job that I'd rather take the lazy way out and just link to them. Besides, I don't think Bill Smith reads this blog, so all of that work would probably be in vain anyway.

Obviously I am an Idiot: More Preseason Predictions Revisited

I went over some of the preseason predictions I made during spring training in an earlier post, and I was pretty much right about all the things that could possibly go wrong during the season. Now it's time to go over what I thought would go well. As you can see, I whiffed on pretty much all of these. One of these days, I'm going to remember that everybody looks good in spring training and I should probably just ignore those numbers.

• Kevin Slowey is the new Brad Radke: If he hadn't gotten hurt, this probably would have been true. His fastball averages a blistering 89 mph, but since he can locate it pretty much wherever he wants to, Slowey is one of the best starters in the rotation. His strikeout rate is pretty average, but he is very stingy about issuing free passes, walking hitters at a rate of 1.5 per nine innings. Thus, his 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio is among the best in all of baseball, behind only Roy Halladay (5.94), Dan Haren (5.84) and Javier Vazquez (5.41). As a flyball pitcher who tends to give up a lot of hits, it is obviously in his best interest not to issue too many free passes.
  

• Francisco Liriano will emerge as the staff ace: Oops. F-bomb was awful this year, even when you account for a lack of run support and a run of bad luck. Control is often the last thing to come back after Tommy John surgery, and Frankie clearly didn't have it (plus he dealt with some injury issues of his own). He still misses a lot of bats (8.03 K/9), but he also walks a lot of hitters (4.28 BB/9, yikes) and gives up a lot of home runs (12.5 HR/FB%). Obviously, the fan base is frustrated with his struggles and has been demanding a trade, but F-bomb was still a 1.1 WAR pitcher despite putting up such poor numbers. His stock is pretty low right now, and considering that he's still pretty young and cheap, the front office might want to wait and hope his control comes back next year.
  

• Jason Kubel and Delmon Young are poised to have breakout seasons: Well, I was half right. Jason Kubel did indeed have his breakout season, batting .300/.369/.539 with a career high 28 home runs. Yep, nothing to complain about here, except of course that he can't hit left-handed pitching.
  
  Delmon...well, he got really hot over the last couple of weeks of the season, batting .455/.500/.909 with 3 home runs. He, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer were obviously huge contributors in the Twins' last minute push to clinch the division. But he was awful before that, batting just .264/.288/.384 with almost no power whatsoever. He sucked again in the postseason, when he had to face better pitchers than the likes of Luke Hochevar and Nate Robertson.
  
  I haven't done a breakdown of the Delmon Young trade like I did the Santana trade yet, mostly because I start sobbing uncontrollably whenever I think about it too much. Besides, I don't really need an entire post to say that the Twins got hosed, one paragraph should be sufficient. The Santana trade will probably end up being a bust, but the Delmon Young trade is much, much worse because, not only did the front office deal strength up the middle for a corner outfielder, they didn't even have to make this move in the first place. Yes the outfield was a big question mark after Torii Hunter left, but you can throw a rock and hit about five or six cheap, replacement-level corner outfielders on the free agent market in any given season. They aren't exactly in short supply, unlike decent shortstops and starting pitchers (the trade makes even less sense when you consider how much the Twins struggled to get decent production out of the middle infield before Jason Bartlett came along). And a replacement-level outfielder would be a huge upgrade over what the Twins have been getting out of Delmon. So, good job, Bill Smith, taking one hole and turning it into three.

• Jesse Crain will be dominant: Um, not quite. Crain had a strong second half, but he was so ineffective before the All-Star break that he got demoted to AAA for the first time in his career. Crain is going to earn substantial raise in arbitration, and with the 40-man roster being such a mess, there is a distinct possibility that he will be non-tendered. It's unfortunate, since it's always nice to have another solid arm in the 'pen, but with Joe Nathan and Jon Rauch owed a combined $14.15 million next year, the bullpen is already pretty expensive and those resources could be better spent elsewhere.
  

• Glen Perkins might not be that bad, either: Ugh, really the best thing you can say about Perk is that he's left-handed. And he did get off to a great start, posting a 2.48 ERA in his first four starts. Unfortunately, he came back down to earth pretty quickly after that, going 5-5 with a 5.89 ERA before landing on the DL with shoulder pain in early August. Yes, he did suffer from shoulder problems for about half the season, but injuries aren't the main reason Perkins was ineffective. The problem is that he has no stuff: his strikeout rate is well below league-average, but unlike teammates Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, he lacks the pinpoint control necessary to be effective while pitching to contact. Perkins recently filed a grievance against the organization over his service time, and since he was already in Gardy's doghouse for failing to disclose his injury, there is a good chance we have seen the last of the mediocre lefty. His trade value at this point is pretty low however, and it isn't as though the Twins have a glut of major-league ready arms, so perhaps they will give him another chance.