A Tale of Three Sinkerballers

Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona, and Nick Blackburn:  the only thing the three have in common is that they all throw a sinking fastball.  Wang was one of the most effective sinkerballers in the league, Carmona lead the Indians to the ALCS in 2007 (with a little help from C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner, et. al, of course), while Blackburn was making an unimpressive major-league debut after putting together an  unimpressive minor league career.  If you told me then, when Wang and Carmona were leading their teams into the postseason, that just three years later Blackburn would be the only one guaranteed a starting job with a major-league club, I would have assumed you were related to Blackbeard in some way.  But that is certainly the case (at least as of this writing), as Wang was recently been non-tendered by the Yankees and Carmona will probably have to compete for a starting job.  Injuries have derailed the careers of the other two, while Blackbeard has been a pleasant surprise.

• Chien-Ming Wang:  

Wang once possessed one of the nastiest sinkers in baseball.  At 92 mph, it was unusually hard and induced ground balls by the bucketful (his average 6.5% whiff rate wasn't too shabby, either). Wang was having another good season in 2008, holding opponents to an anemic .335 slugging percentage, until he suffered a season-ending ankle injury while running the bases during interleague play.  He hasn't been quite the same since. He got off to an awful start in 2009, then missed half of the season after having surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder.  His peripherals show some promise, and at only 28, he should rebound from a rough couple of seasons (though the loss of velocity on his sinker, coupled with shoulder problems, might be a red flag).  Wang has already drawn the interest of six major league teams,  even though he has just recently begun a throwing program and isn't likely to be ready by Opening Day.

• Fausto Carmona:

Like Wang, Carmona was once one of the toughest sinkerballers in the league. His sinker averaged a bat-shattering 93.5 mph, and induced a remarkable 64% of ground balls on balls in play (best in the American League at the time).  Coupled with good control and a decent strikeout rate, Carmona certainly looked like he would terrorize the AL Central for years to come.  And then he got hurt.  Carmona suffered a hip injury that limited him to only 120 innings in 2008, and like Wang, he hasn't been the same pitcher since.  While he certainly hasn't lost any velocity and his sinker still gets a good number of ground balls, Carmona has lost his control. His walk rate has increased from 2.55 per nine innings in 2007 to a league-worst 5.83 BB/9 since 2008.  He was demoted all the way down to the Arizona Summer League in June of 2009, and saw only a slight improvement in his numbers after being called up in July.  Carmona is still pretty effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to a mere .366 slugging percentage.  It's lefties who give him fits, batting .331/.427/.537 against him and drawing nearly twice as many walks (47 vs. 23).  I don't follow the Indians that closely, so I have no idea how he figures into their future plans. but I imagine Carmona will get another chance to make it as a starter.

• Nick Blackburn: 

Blackbeard is perhaps best described as "Carlos Silva with better secondary stuff", and yet he's been more valuable to his team over the past couple of years than Wang and Carmona combined (whoa, there's a sentence I never thought I would ever write).  Unlike those two, Blackburn doesn't throw particularly hard or induce as many worm-burners, and his secondary stuff is pretty pedestrian.  His sinker induces ground balls at a rate of only 49%, compared to Wang's 60% and Carmona's 64% (good sinkerballers get an average of 60% groundballs on balls in play).  Worse yet, he doesn't induce many empty swings, either.  It's not just that he doesn't strike out many batters (few sinkerballers post above-average strikeout rates), it's that his sinking fastball has a whiff rate of only about 6%.  Since he relies heavily on a very hittable two-seamer (he throws it nearly 56% of the time), it's no wonder most analysts were skeptical that Blackburn would stick in the major leagues.  The key to Blackbeard's effectiveness lies in his pinpoint control:  his 1.79 BB/9 rate was the third-best in the Amercian League last year.  Blackbeard has finished in the top five in innings pitched the past couple of seasons despite also leading the league in hits allowed, and at best projects to be little more than a solid innings-eater.  As long as he's still under team control and only making the league minimum, though, that isn't such a bad thing to have in the rotation at all.

New Name, Same Everything Else

Congragulations, rghrbek! With 38% of the vote, you ran away with the "Name that Blog" contest. I promised that the winner would get a prize, and I have a nice 2009 Division Champions hat for you.  Just let me know where you want me to send it (P.S. if the email form in my sidebar doesn't work, and knowing my html skills, it probably doesn't, you can just email me at erinm@vfemail.net).  Again, thanks to all who participated, whether it was by submitting a suggestion for a new name or voting in the poll. I never did get a chance to write a blog post about what I liked about each new blog name candidate before the poll closed, so here it is (I mentioned why I liked the winning entry a tad prematurely here):


Punto Beans:  I thought this one was really cute, and I think I'll adopt it as Punto's new nickname.  Besides, Punto will probably be a Twin longer than I'll have a blog, so at least I wouldn't have had to worry about another name change.

Span the Field, Our Sideburned Overlord:  The former was suggested by Topper Anton, who, besides writing one of the best Twins blogs around, also submitted "Rauch Infestation", which I liked a lot and would have chosen outright if Jon Rauch were going to stick around past next year.  The latter was submitted by Andrew Bryz-Gornia, who writes another one of the best Twins blogs around.  I liked that one because it sounds awfully familiar somehow.


Cuddubel Me:  A great name based on one of Bert's many eff-ups.  Again, it would have been appropriate considering what I do here, and it would have had a cool graphic to go along with it.

I've Got a Hardy On:  Well, it's pretty good, I guess.  I'll probably put back it in the headline somewhere, once J. J. Hardy leads the Twins to their fourth World Series title.

Also, I realize that is not, in fact, a picture of Nick Punto getting picked off at first base in my header.  I just thought that Punto's epic baserunning FAIL in game 3 of the ALDS was the perfect metaphor for this blog, and the sort of analysis I provide, and well, my life in general. Oh, and the name of the blog is the only thing that's going to change.  I was going to go ahead and change the URL too, but I lost enough readers the last time I did that decided that was waaaay too much work.  So, I've decided keep the original URL as a sort of an homage to Go-Go (well, besides keeping the original name on my other site).  Speaking of which, I created a little slideshow tribute to Gomez and put it in my sidebar.  I'll probably leave it up until Opening Day, and I'll probably add more pictures to it, too.  I am glad that the Twins finally have a decent shortstop, but goddam, I am going to miss that goofball.  I cannot think of any other player who enjoys playing baseball more than Go-Go; he really is just like a kid out there.

Boof is Bound for Boston

The Twins were awfully busy at the winter meetings (well, busy for them), and I haven't been able to write much about it (still on restrictions for at least another couple of weeks, though I am feeling much better).  It's taken me about four days to finish this:

• Bonser DFA'd, traded to the Red Sox
  

Losing Boof kind of sucks, actually.  Oh, I understand perfectly why the Twins felt justified in moving a 28 year-old coming off of shoulder surgery who hadn't put up decent numbers since his rookie season in 2006.  He and his agent reportedly wanted a $1.5 million raise, while the Twins' offer was substantially less than that (and probably much closer to what he's actually worth).  The Twins' 2010 opening day payroll is already pushing $90 million, and that's without a contract extension to Joe Mauer or addressing the infield, so it makes sense to cut expensive, mediocre middle relievers.  But man, I'm going to miss chanting "BOOOOOOOF!!!" whenever he would come trotting in from the bullpen. Besides, Boof could probably be a useful middle reliever, or maybe even a back-of-the-rotation starter.  That's a lot more than can be said about Bobby Keppel, who is still on the 40-man roster for some reason (probably because he's making the league minimum whether he likes it or not).  However, as much as I hate to see him go, moving to Boston might be the best thing for Boof.  Boof has struggled against left-handed pitching for the past few seasons, and the Twins have little use for what amounts to an expensive ROOGY.  The Red Sox, on the other hand, have one of the deepest bullpens in MLB, and a manager who knows how to best utilize the strengths of his relievers (not to mention the fact that $1.5 million amounts to pocket change for the Sawx).  And it's still better than signing Brandon Lyon.

• Carl Pavano agrees to arbitration

The Twins had to DFA Boofer to clear space on the 40-man for Carl Pavano, who decided to accept the Twins' arbitration offer.  He explained his decision to forgo free agency thusly:

"There were different ways to look at my decision. I could have continued to sit back and wait for the market to unfold more, take a chance and end up with a team that is not a winner and in a place I don't want to be. Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase. That doesn't ensure us anything, but I like our chances."

Aww, we love you too, Carl, and it's good to have you back.  I'm not surprised other teams may have shied away from signing a 33-year old with a dubious health history and a 5.10 ERA to a multi-year deal (although the 3 years, $29.75 million to Randy Wolf is a bit of a head-scratcher).  However, as Parker Hageman notes, Pavano pitched much better than his ERA would indicate and should see some improvement in his numbers next season.  How much his numbers will improve is debatable (he will be a 34 year old finesse pitcher, after all), and I'm not sure how much stock I would put in his peripherals.  There obviously isn't much data available on his performance over the past four years, and he did pitch against a lot of terrible teams last year.  He did post a decent strikeout rate while walking a mere 1.8 batters per nine innings though, and he got a lot of ground balls without giving up too many home runs, all of which is very encouraging (the acquisition of J. J. Hardy should help shore up the infield defense, too).  I wouldn't expect Pavano to put up Greinke-like numbers next year, but an ERA somewhere around 4.00 isn't unreasonable (EDIT:  I should have just checked with Bill James before posting.  He projects a 4.46 ERA for Pavano next year.  That sounds about right).  A Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Pavano, Perkins/Duensing/???? rotation might not be the best in the division, but it looks pretty solid so far.

• Third Base:

The Twins have been linked to both Mark DeRosa and Kevin Kouzmanoff in various rumors.  Briefly, I like Kouzmanoff better because he's younger and cheaper, and a trade would probably get Glen Perkins off the roster (although it does make me wonder who else the Padres would demand in return, since a straight up Kouz-for-Perk deal is unlikely).  Heck, if I were Perk, I would be pushing for this trade, and not just because of the whole grievance thing.  Petco Park, with its cavernous outfield, is perfect for someone like Perk: a somewhat homer-prone finesse pitcher who walks almost as many batters as he strikes out.  He could feel free to attack the strike zone more aggressively, since one of his 90-mph gopher balls is more likely to end up in a fielder's glove than in the seats. 

• The Tigers were kind of busy, too:

I think Joe Posnanski best summed up the trade that got Curtis Granderson out of the AL Central, and brought in Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson to (probably) haunt my dreams.  I don't have much to add, other than I don't think Arizona got hosed quite as much as it looks right now.  Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson will probably do just fine in the weak NL West, and there are legitimate concerns about Scherzer's pitching motion and durability.  Obviously, if the D-Backs were trying to get younger and cheaper, they didn't exactly accomplish that goal when they picked up Jackson.  But if their fears about Scherzer turn out to be well-founded, then it isn't such a bad deal after all.

•  Non-baseball related:

Benoit Pouliot is already considered the fourth-worst draft pick of the decade.  It's amazing, then, that Chuck Fletcher actually got something useful for him:

Finally, the poll is closed, the people have spoken, and this blog will have a new name.  I'll have a more formal announcement on Monday (I do have to check and make sure the name isn't already registered and everything.  Gosh, I probably should have put more thought into this), and thanks to all who participated.  Oh, and be sure to check out Dan Wade's interview with 2009 AL MVP Joe Mauer.  There will be riots in the streets if Joe ever plays for someone else.

Name that Blog: And Now It's Time to Vote

Thank you, all who submitted ideas for a new blog name. As promised, I am putting the best of the best to a vote. Okay, I only got six suggestions (which is six more than I expected, actually), so I'm putting just putting all of them to a vote  Wow, that sounded awfully bitchy, sorry about that.  I actually liked all of your suggestions a lot, and I do appreciate the effort you put in to helping me re-name my blog, since I obviously can't do it on my own. The polls close in a week, and the winner gets, well I haven't decided yet, but I'll send you something nice.  And don't worry, fans of the original name, I'm keeping it on my other site.  I'd have to contact, uhh, somebody, in order to get it changed and that's just too much work.