Goodbye, NBP

It's official:  the Mike Redmond era in Minnesota is over.  I mean, I knew it was pretty much over last year, when he threw out only four of 45 potential base stealers while slugging a mere .289 (well, and when the front office announced it was going in a different direction).  It's hard to say how much of that was due to his shoulder injury, but at 38, it's safe to assume that Red's best years are behind him.  Jose Morales is more than ready to take over as Mauer's caddy, although it turns out he's going to need wrist surgery and will miss at least the first week of spring training (um, is Brad Ausmus available? Sal Fasano? Michael Barrett, hey that would make games against the Sox much more um, interesting!).  I don't blame the Twins at all for moving on, but I'm still going to miss Red.  I have tremendous respect for someone who worked so hard to earn and keep a spot on a major league roster, and his reluctance to hang it up is certainly understandable.  There are so many memorable Red Dog moments: from naked batting practice (his proven slump-busting technique!), to that time he legged jogged out a triple, making the entire bench (not to mention the Dome) erupt in laughter.  His toughness was legendary; I mean, he was right back in the dugout after taking a bat to the head, requiring seven stitches.  Besides, he's one of the few bench players that I know of to inspire an entire marketing campaign:

We Interrupt Your Baseball Coverage to Bring You This Very Special Message: Skål

As a lifelong Vikings fan, believe me, I'm aware that this team will probably fail epically against the Saints in the NFC Championship game.  Or (more likely) against a vastly inferior AFC team in the Super Bowl.  Getting their fans' hopes up only to dash them in the most heartbreaking way possible is just how they roll.  But for now I'm just enjoying their first playoff victory of the Major Dad Brad Childress era (although, it does make me ill to have to root for Brett Favre, even at this late date).  Oh, and for all the whiny Cowgirls Cowboys fans who accuse the Purple of running up the score:  get over it, the defense should have done a better job stopping Favre.  And yes, I'm going to say the same thing when Drew Brees torches the Vikes' D for 80 points next week.

Has it Really Been a Year Already?

Actually, it's been a little over a year since it I started this here blog (Yes, I missed my own blog anniversary by about five days.  I'm on top of things around here).  A lot has happened since then, both for me and the Twins.  This blog has undergone a move, a name change, and I bent my long-standing resistance to all forms of social media and joined Twitter.  I even went through the painstaking process of moving all of my old MLBlogs posts over here, though most of them really weren't worth the trouble.  As for the future of this thing, well I really don't know.  I can't see the blog getting much bigger than it is now.  I started it on a lark, since I was out of school at the time and didn't have a job and didn't really have anything else to do but bitch blog about my baseball team.  I have a job now, and school will start again in a few weeks and, to be honest, I don't know how much writing I'll be doing from now on.  This is pretty much just a hobby for me, and while I'm flattered that other people read it and (hopefully) like it, I mostly write for my own amusement (and sanity, considering some of the horrible things that happened last season).  I'll try not to let the blog die, but I can't make any promises (I haven't even gotten to half of the things I was planning to write. I guess there's always next year).

As for the Twins, they were pretty busy too:

Their owner died, which prompted my very first blog post (ugh).

They played their final season in the Dome, which prompted me to reminisce about the old dump.

They signed Joe Crede, which got me needlessly excited.

They stunk in the first half of the season, which prompted me to write the best thing I've ever written.

They won the division in dramatic fashion.  Then got swept out of the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion, which made me write some things I'm not terribly proud of.

They traded the namesake of this blog for J. J. Hardy, which prompted me to hold this blog's first-ever contest.

As for the future, well, Target Field opens in just a few short months, ushering in a new era of outdoor baseball and an unprecedented (for the Twins) increase in revenue.  Even though the front office hasn't made any major moves since trading for Hardy, payroll is already expected to be at a franchise-record $82 million next year and the era of being overly frugal is apparently over.  They have yet to work out a contract extension with Joe Mauer, but as the Twins Geek notes, it probably won't be a disaster if their franchise player walks, and I agree.  As much as I love Joe, and as badly as I want him to retire in a Twins uniform, I don't think the franchise is necessarily sunk if he signs elsewhere next year.  Obviously, the Twins will miss his bat in the lineup, but the financial flexibility the front office would gain by letting him walk might be more valuable.  One of my concerns about re-signing Mauer is that his contract would likely eat up about 25% of the current payroll, and that could limit the front office's ability to fill holes through free agency.  For a team that has no real long-term solution at second base, whose top third-base prospect projects to have a ceiling of Kevin Kouzmanoff, and with a rotation full of number three (at best) starters, it's important to have some breathing room in the budget to acquire at least second-tier free agents.  It sounds like Mauer understands this and is willing to structure his contract to allow the front office the flexibility to add necessary pieces, but it remains to be seen if the two sides can work out an agreement.  There's no question that the Twins would be a worse team in the immediate future without Mauer, but whether they would actually be better off without him in the long run is something the front office needs to think about. 

Anxiously Breathing an Enormous Sigh of Relief

So it turns out this Washburn rumor is probably false.  (UPDATE:  No, it's true.  I was right to be concerned).  *Whew* (What? Getting needlessly worked up about things that may or may not even happen is just how I roll.  In my defense though, Washburn is the sort of veteran starter with a reputation as a workhorse and a good clubhouse guy that the front office tends to overvalue, so I get nervous whenever his name is linked with the Twins). Fangraphs' Jack Moore wrote a more detailed explanation of why Jarrod Washburn is a poor fit for the Twins, and I don't have anything else to add.  Given some of the comments I've made here and on Twitter, it probably sounds like I have some sort of personal vendetta against the veteran lefty, but that isn't true.  I don't hate Washburn at all, he seems like a nice guy and a pretty decent starter.  I just don't think his skill set is a good fit for the Twins and so far it seems the front office agrees I wish the front office would recognize that.  Washburn is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he's best suited for a team like Seattle that plays in an extreme pitchers' park and has a strong outfield defense.  None of those things apply to the Twins, and since they really need to add another infielder more than anything, paying Washburn $7 million would be a colossal waste of money.  There isn't any reason to think that Brian Duensing, or heck, even Glen Perkins or Francisco Liriano, won't be better than Washburn next year, and at a much lower cost.  Yes, there is no guarantee that any of those three will remain healthy, and yes, Washburn is a workhorse with a great health history, but consider this:  Washburn will be 36 years old and is coming off knee surgery.  It wasn't major surgery and he should be ready by spring training, but there's no guarantee he will remain healthy next year, either.  Obviously, adding depth to the rotation in the form of a durable veteran starter isn't a bad idea, but a ground ball pitcher like Jon Garland or *gulp* Doug Davis might be a better fit (taking a flyer on Chien-Ming Wang would be an even cheaper, but riskier, move).

Clay Condrey, on the other hand, is a good pickup, even though bullpen depth isn't one of the organization's most pressing needs.  Condrey has put up some pretty solid numbers over the past six seasons, and he does induce a lot of ground balls.  He's sort of like Matt Guerrier, except he doesn't miss as many bats and probably shouldn't be used in anything remotely resembling a high-leverage situation.  Condrey should at least provide an upgrade over Bobby Keppel (whose release gave the Washburn rumor legs), though at a slightly increased cost.

The best part about the addition of Condrey is that the Twins won't have to rush Pat Neshek into the bullpen before he's ready.  He probably wouldn't have been used for anything more than long relief anyway, but now it's almost certain that Neshek will begin the season in Rochester.  I've mentioned in my previous post that I think the Twins erred in slotting Francisco Liriano into the rotation so soon after Tommy John surgery.  It's true that he had a pretty good spring training in 2008, but there were also numerous red flags (he posted an ugly 14/15 BB/K ratio and gave up a lot of hits), and probably would have spent the entire season in the minors if the rotation had more depth.  Not surprisingly, he got hit hard in his first three starts and was promptly demoted to AAA.  After a strong second half, in which he posted a 2.74 ERA after being called up in August, the Twins fully expected him to be the number two starter in 2009, though again, his high walk rate (3.4 BB/9) and high hit rate (8.8 BB/9) were cause for concern.  Those red flags caught up with him last year and he put up the worst numbers of his career:  a 5.80 ERA, 1.88 K/BB ratio, and 5.28 tRA. Most of F-bomb's control problems are likely rooted in the physical rather than the psychological (it often takes a couple of seasons for a pitcher to regain his control after TJ surgery, especially if, like F-bomb, he's essentially had to re-learn how to pitch), but it probably didn't help to have such enormous expectations hanging over his head when he had yet to pitch a full season in the major leagues.  I don't think rushing Liriano to the rotation was all the organization's fault, since he and his agent were pushing hard for service time, but it wasn't necessary and may have set him back.  It's good to see the Twins aren't taking any chances with Neshek.

The 2000 Minnesota Twins

It's rumored the Twins have offered Jarrod Washburn a contract, but I'll wait until he's officially a Twin to officially throw a fit (for the love of God, please tell me this is just a horrible rumor planted by the Washburn camp to extort money out of the Mariners or somesuch).  Bert Blyleven also fell just short of being inducted in the Hall of Fame, and I think I'll write something about that, too.  In the meantime, I have a few things to say about the 2000 team.

Once again, another blogger inspired me to write something long and rambling about the worst team of the decade (and then kind of veer off into what the future may hold, and post a video that had nothing to do with that team other than Bradke was in it and I like old video game commercials). This time, blame Eric Johnson at Undomed, who wrote a hilarious review of the 2000 team (the whole series is definitely worth a read).  Well, that and Joe Posnanski's 1,000,000-word review of the Royals' decade of ineptitude. It didn't look like it at the time, but the 2000 team would actually play an important role in shaping the five-time AL Central champion we all know and love.  The Twins made a couple of significant moves that season that would later bring the team from perennial cellar-dwellers to perennial contenders:  trading Jared Camp to the Marlins for Rule V draft pick Johan Santana (yeah, technically that was in December 1999, but that's close enough to 2000 and the deal would obviously have a profound affect on the rest of the decade) and finishing the season with the worst record in baseball (thus snagging the top pick in the 2001 draft...I think you know where this is going but please follow along after the jump).

Corey Koskie: Greatest Twin of the Decade?

Well, not quite.  But he is certainly in the top five, and one of the most underrated players of his generation.  I got to thinking about Koskie and where he stood in regards to the greatest Twins of the decade after Rob Neyer placed him above Justin Morneau on his list of the 100 best players of the decade (Koskie was no. 92, while Morneau failed to make the list).  Of course, the local media blew up (well, at least those who weren't busy obsessing over the Vikings' recent collapse).  How on earth could Corey Koskie be a better player than former AL MVP Justin Morneau?  My gut reaction was that Neyer was probably right, and it turns out he is:  Corey Koskie is a more valuable player than Justin Morneau, though by exactly how much is debatable.  I'm not going to do a head-to-head comparison of the two, since there's a very good one here, but Justin Morneau has to be one of the most overrated players in baseball.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think our Canadian Crusher is a terrible player by any means.  He's been about 15.6 wins above replacement in seven major league seasons, and despite his penchant for slumping in the second half, he's also been worth every penny of his 6-year, $80 million contract (yes, even this year, even though he missed the last couple of months of the season). Morneau is hardly a one-dimensional slugger (he does get on base a lot and draws a lot of walks), but he also isn't the elite first baseman fans and the local media make him out to be.  He's at best an average defender with almost no versatility in the field.  The Twins would almost certainly be a better team with any of Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, or maybe even Prince Fielder instead of Morneau (OK, that last one was a stretch, but you get the point).  I can't say that about Corey Koskie; I can't think of four or five third basemen off the top of my head who were more valuable at the time (maybe Scott Rolen, but that's about it).

This isn't a definitive list of the greatest Twins of the aughts, or the zeros, or whatever you want to call the past decade.  I'm going to save all that for the end of the season, since the decade doesn't technically end until the start of 2011 and there's still a lot of baseball to be played this year.  I just thought it would be interesting to see how Koskie stacks up against some of his more famous colleagues.  I'm using Sean Smith's WAR calculations from Baseballprojection.com for this exercise, since that's what Neyer used to compile his list and Fangraphs doesn't have them prior to 2002.  And I'm also using Smith's fielding runs above replacement to quantify player defense, since Fangraphs doesn't have UZR calculations prior to 2002.

First, let's look at the man himself:

• Koskie

I neglected to mention Corey Koskie in my post on the 2002 Twins, but he deserves a separate entry of his own, anyway.  He was definitely a fan favorite, though I'm not sure if most Twins fans realized how good he really was (the fan reaction to Neyer's list makes me think they don't).  He was a solid hitter, batting .280/.373/.463 in seven seasons with the Twins, but his real value comes from his defense.  According to Baseballprojection.com, Koskie was worth an average 38.4 fielding runs above replacement per year from 2000-2004, putting him among the league's elite defensive third basemen.  An above-average bat coupled with spectacular defense makes Koskie worth 19 wins above replacement in that period.

If there are any knocks against Koskie, it's that injuries cut his career short.  He left via free agency after the 2004 season, and things quickly fell apart after that.  He was mostly injured and ineffective during his brief stint in Toronto.  He was traded to Milwaukee in January 2006 and looked to be on the rebound, batting .261/.343/.490, until he suffered what would be a career-ending concussion in July.  Still, a 23.7 WAR after nine major league seasons is pretty damn good, especially since he appeared in only 173 games after leaving Minnesota. 

Koskie, by the way, was the player who got me interested in sabermetrics.  I was frustrated by mainstream defensive metrics, like errors and fielding percentage, when trying to figure out how good he was with the glove.  Such metrics would put say, Joe Randa, in the same tier as Koskie, but even I knew that couldn't possibly be true.  I don't think there is anything close to a perfect metric for measuring defense, but UZR and John Dewan's plus/minus tell you a lot more about a player than simple fielding percentage.  It's too bad such metrics weren't widely available when Koskie still played; fans might have had a greater appreciation for him then.

And then the competition:

• Torii Hunter

Before injuring his ankle in 2004, Torii was an elite defender at the second-most valuable defensive position on the field (behind catcher, of course).  He lost a step or two after that, but he was still pretty good for the most part (not Gold-Glove worthy, but that's for another post).  He was also a pretty comparable hitter to Koskie, too, batting .271/.324/.469 in eleven seasons as a Twin (Koskie had better on-base skills, but Torii had more power, so it's a tossup).  Even with positional adjustments, however, Koskie still comes out on top.  That's mostly because Hunter was a great defender for only a few seasons in Minnesota (2001-2003), while Koskie was a fantastic defender for all but one of his eight seasons.  Hunter's defense was worth an average 20.9 runs above replacement per season in eight seasons since 2000, and combined with his above-average bat, is good for 16.7 wins above replacement.  Thus, even though Hunter has been more durable at a more premium defensive position, Koskie is probably the more valuable player overall. 

• Johan Santana

I don't like to compare pitchers to position players; it really is like comparing apples to oranges.  Their jobs are very different and then there's the big issue of playing time.  Even part-time position players start more games and log more defensive innings than the most productive innings-eaters.  However, starting pitchers do face more batters in a season than position players have plate appearances.  And, like position players, pitchers are players who do have value, though in general an average starter is worth slightly less than a replacement-level position player.  Oh what the hell, no list of top Twins of the decade is complete without Johan, so I'll take a half-hearted stab at comparing the two. Santana was tenth best player of the decade according to Neyer's list, and it's hard to argue with that.  With 1,381 strikeouts, a 3.22 ERA, and 32.1 WAR in seven seasons as a Twin, Santana was the most dominant left-handed pitcher in all of baseball and probably the second-best pitcher period, behind Roy Halladay (I'll give it to Doc, since he pitched in a much tougher division).  Even though Koskie logged nearly four times more defensive innings at third base than Johan pitched, I think Johan is the more valuable player.

•  Joe Mauer 

This is also a little tougher of a comparison.  While Mauer is a better hitter overall, Koskie has actually started more games at his position this decade (well, including his time in Milwaukee and Toronto).  Mauer has been hurt a lot in his career as a Twin, and he's also spent 81 games at DH (a much less valuable position) in an effort to save his legs (Koskie DH'ed only 35 games in his entire major league career).   It's also really hard to figure who is the better defender at their position, since there isn't yet a good metric for evaluating catcher defense.  Opinions on his defense range from "Joe Mauer is the best defensive catcher in baseball", to "Joe Mauer is at least in the top ten", to "Joe Mauer is completely overrated as a defensive catcher."  I've touched on the subject a little, but I think the truth is somewhere in between.  Mauer is probably in the top ten among active catchers when it comes to defense, but I hesitate to call him the best (especially after watching Gerald Laird).  At any rate, an average defensive catcher is more valuable than even a great defensive third baseman, so I'd have to give the reigning AL MVP a slight edge in this department.  Mauer is 33.1 wins above replacement in only six seasons, making him arguably the most valuable Twin of the decade and well on his way to becoming the greatest Twin of all time. Koskie may have been a great third baseman, but he isn't even the best in franchise history (that would be Gary Gaetti).  

Welcome Back, Jacques

We interrupt your regularly scheduled baseball programming (hey, I'm working on some things) to bring you this tribute to former Wild coach Jacques Lemaire:

I don't know what the team has planned for tonight, but really, I can't imagine a more fitting tribute than this.