I've been sitting on this post for almost a month now. I've been meaning to publish my thoughts on what the division might look like this year, but I just haven't had the time to finish it. Now that I have a rare weekend with little homework (aside from studying for a test), I finally have a chance to finish this thing. *sigh* Someday I'm going to finish college, I really am.
The Twinks: I'll be on the conservative side and put the Twins at about 85 wins this season. The offense looks to be the best in the division, especially after the acquisition of Jim Thome, but the outfield and the starting rotation look pretty iffy. Of course, one probably shouldn't put too much faith in a soon-to-be-40-year-old DH, but Thome will likely provide more power off the bench than Alexi Casilla or Matt Tolbert. Ideally, he should be platooned with Delmon Young against right-handed pitching, but then someone would have to explain the concept of a platoon to Gardy. The addition of Orlando Hudson instantly makes a decent infield the strongest in the division. Unfortunately, the outfield is terrible. Denard Span should be a good defensive center fielder (his below-average UZR numbers in center are likely due to a small sample size; he looks pretty solid there) but Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young are among the worst everyday players in baseball. Jason Kubel will likely be the starting right fielder when Span gets a day off, which means the Twins could be trotting out the worst defensive outfield ever. Hopefully one of the ground-ball pitchers, such as Blackburn or Pavano, will get the start.
Speaking of the rotation, there's a lot to like and a lot to be concerned about. Early reports about Francisco Liriano, both from the Dominican Winter League and his early batting practice sessions, have been encouraging. I'm not sure how accurate the radar guns used in the DWL are, but his velocity is reportedly back up to about 94 mph and his slider has the same pre-TJ bite. Scouts have been raving about his performance though, and if F-bomb is indeed back to his pre-surgery form, could emerge as the ace the Twins have been looking for. Of course, he has yet to face much major-league quality hitting, so I'll believe F-bomb is back to his 2006 form when I see it. Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn should be as solid as ever, while Carl Pavano will probably be worth his $7 million if, you know, he stays healthy. Kevin Slowey, well, I'm a little worried about K-Slow. He revealed in a recent interview that his wrist hasn't felt the same since having two screws surgically implanted last year, and he doesn't sound optimistic about the upcoming season. Oy, I hope Glen Perkins doesn't hold a grudge.
The Pale Hosers: I honestly don't know what to make of the White Sox. Whatever you want to say about GM Kenny Williams, he has quietly assembled the most terrifying starting rotation in all of baseball: Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd is as good as it gets, while top prospect Daniel Hudson looks to be major-league ready (and Freddy Garcia should be a competent fifth-starter if he isn't). Their bullpen isn't quite as strong, but it should be pretty good, especially if Bobby Jenks returns to form (and if he doesn't, they're probably better off with Matt Thornton as closer anyway). Their offense, on the other hand, stinks. Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko were the Sox's best hitters last year, and of the three, only Konerko will be back. Alex Rios was a huge disappointment after coming over from Toronto, batting just .199/.229/.301, but is young enough to rebound, especially in a hitter's park like U.S. Cellular field. The same can be said for the oft-injured Carlos Quentin, who batted .236/.323/.456 on the rare occasion he was in the lineup. Juan Pierre is Juan Pierre, but at least Gordon Beckham will likely haunt my dreams for years to come (Unless he gets traded to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez. Oh, please, please, please make this happen Kenny Williams, and throw in Danks while you're at it.). Unless the Sox add another bat or three to the lineup, they'll probably finish somewhere around .500.
The Racist Mascots: The Indians, projected by many (including PECOTA and yours truly) to win the division last year, instead finished the season tied with Kansas City for last place. Travis Hafner was injured and mostly ineffective, Fausto Carmona was a huge disappointment, and Cleveland dealt their Cy Young winner at the trade deadline after falling out of contention around May. So 2009 was essentially a repeat of 2008 for Indians fans, except with more losing. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like things will be much better for the Indians this year. Payroll constraints have prevented the front office from making any upgrades, aside from inking Russell Branyan to a one-year, $2 million deal. I could see Cleveland winning 77 games this year, but that's about it. Cleveland recently shook up its organization, firing manager Eric Wedge and bringing in Manny Acta, and kicking GM Mark Shapiro upstairs while promoting his long-term assistant Chris Antonetti. They've still got Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo (who might have to serve in the Korean military, yikes), and through a number of smart trades, they do have a lot of young talent in the system, but right now Cleveland is clearly in rebuilding mode.
Teh Kittehs: Coming off of an 88-loss season in 2008, Detroit certainly wasn't expected to make any noise last year. Most projection systems figured they'd battle the Royals for last place in the division. But Detroit surprised everyone when they got off to a hot start, and they lead the division by a pretty comfortable margin up until the last three weeks of the season. Like the White Sox, their starting rotation looks to be pretty strong while the offense looks pretty weak. Detroit easily has the second-best starting rotation in the division, and that's even if Max Scherzer fails to make it as a starter. Unfortunately, the Tigers' weak offense only got weaker when Curtis Granderson was dealt to the Yankees (although, it was on the whole a good move for the Tigers). Austin Jackson...well, he might be good eventually. Miguel Cabrera is one of the most dangerous hitters in the league, but he's flanked by aging and declining (and expensive) teammates in Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. The addition of Johnny Damon will help ease the loss of Granderson, but he won't add much power to a lineup that could really use it. Interesting fact: Detroit has never won the Central since the divisions were realigned in 1995. They probably won't do it this year, either.
The Royals: The Royals capped off a decade of futility with one of their worst seasons in franchise history. Save for your 2009 AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, the Mexecutioner, Billy Butler, and, um...uh...the fountain at Kaufmann Stadium, there wasn't much to cheer for in the KC. Unfortunately, things don't look like they're about to get better anytime soon. PECOTA projects 74 wins for the Royals for this year, which might be a tad optimistic. GM Dayton Moore has essentially been busy this offseason making moves that, while they weren't horrible, don't really do much to improve the team. In a vacuum, low-risk, low-cost signings like Rick Ankiel and Jason Kendall are precisely the kind of moves a rebuilding organization should make while waiting for its young players to develop. It's just that the Kansas City roster was already full such players, and guys like Ankiel and Kendall cost a lot more than guys like John Buck and David DeJesus without providing much of an upgrade. So, the Royals spent about $8.7 million to maybe improve by half a win.
That isn't to say that things are completely hopeless in KC. Greinke and Gilgameche provide a powerful 1-2 punch, and Joakim Soria is one of the game's best closers, though it probably won't be enough to overcome what projects to be the worst offense in the league. And who knows? Maybe Josh Fields and Chris Getz will turn out to be useful everyday players. Still, if Kyle Farnsworth has a legitimate shot to be your fifth starter, it's safe to say your playoff chances are pretty slim.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
Today?! Why, it's Nick Punto Day!
In honor of this most scrappiest of days*, I present this thing I wrote about him sometime earlier (update: here's the link). Like the man himself, it's pretty OK:
*WTF is Nick Punto Day, you ask? Find out here.
While working on my analysis of the offense, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that Nick Punto has actually been worth more than the $4.5 million he's getting paid this year. I was going to write a post about that, but Fangraphs' Jack Moore beat me to it. Moore wrote a pretty good assessment of Punto and his skills, although I think it would have been helpful to put his 2009 performance into perspective by comparing him to other position players. Admittedly, that is a difficult thing to do, since Punto rarely has a fixed position in the infield, but he spent most of his time at second base this year, so perhaps it would be best to just compare him to other American League second-basemen (I'll stick with the AL, since I don't really want to make a table comparing 100+ position players). And so here they are, ranked according to wins above replacement (minimum 170 plate appearances):
Punto was the 15th most-valuable second baseman in the league this year, and that's mostly because of his defense. Punto's .295 wOBA is second only to Yuniesky Betancourt's .271 as the worst of all qualified hitters in the league. However, I would argue that his versatility (Punto has played three different positions this season and is an above-average defender at each one) makes him more valuable to his team in general than other slightly above-average second-basemen such as Jose Lopez and Adam Kennedy, and probably even more valuable than the all-hit, no-glove Alberto Callaspo. He certainly isn't as valuable as someone like Maicer Izturis, who is above-average both offensively and defensively (as well as fairly versatile himself), but having him as a starter isn't exactly costing the team wins, either. Actually, the front office could probably just pick which position between second and short is most in need of an upgrade and have Punto start the other.
I think Punto is a good example of how a player might be overrated and yet somehow under-valued at the same time. People tend to love Punto because he's "scrappy" and "gritty" and he "plays the game the right way", often pointing to one or two brilliant defensive plays as evidence that he is one of the best defenders in the league. Except his defense, while solid, isn't quite that good, and is in fact just barely good enough to make up for his pathetic offense. And really, if it weren't for his versatility, Punto would be about as valuable to the Twins as Matt Tolbert.
Haters, on the other hand, point to his numerous baserunning gaffes, occasional defensive lapses, and paltry .322 on-base percentage as proof that Little Nicky has no place on any major-league roster anywhere. But his skills, limited as they may be, are still pretty valuable nonetheless. It isn't easy to find players that can play one position adequately, let alone three. He might not be one of the best hitters in the league, but Punto does take a lot of pitches (4.2 per plate appearance), and subsequently he tends to draw a lot of walks without striking out a whole lot. It's enough to make him worth $5.5 million this year, and his 2-year, $8.5 million contract, while hardly a bargain, looks to be at least market value.
*WTF is Nick Punto Day, you ask? Find out here.
While working on my analysis of the offense, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that Nick Punto has actually been worth more than the $4.5 million he's getting paid this year. I was going to write a post about that, but Fangraphs' Jack Moore beat me to it. Moore wrote a pretty good assessment of Punto and his skills, although I think it would have been helpful to put his 2009 performance into perspective by comparing him to other position players. Admittedly, that is a difficult thing to do, since Punto rarely has a fixed position in the infield, but he spent most of his time at second base this year, so perhaps it would be best to just compare him to other American League second-basemen (I'll stick with the AL, since I don't really want to make a table comparing 100+ position players). And so here they are, ranked according to wins above replacement (minimum 170 plate appearances):
| Name | Team | wOBA | UZR | WAR |
| Ben Zobrist | Rays | .408 | 15.6 | 8.5 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | .360 | 10.2 | 5.2 |
| Ian Kinsler | Rangers | .358 | 9.8 | 4.6 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | .370 | -6.1 | 4.3 |
| Aaorn Hill | Blue Jays | .357 | -1.5 | 4.3 |
| Brian Roberts | Orioles | .356 | -8.8 | 3.4 |
| Placido Polanco | Tigers | .321 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Maicer Izturis | Angels | .348 | 6.0 | 2.9 |
| Alberto Callaspo | Royals | .352 | -7.8 | 2.7 |
| Jose Lopez | Mariners | .325 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | .341 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Adam Kennedy | Athletics | .337 | -4.6 | 1.8 |
| Jamey Carroll | Indians | .317 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Akinori Iwamura | Rays | .338 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Nick Punto | Twins | .295 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Mark Ellis | Athletics | .310 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Omar Vizquel | Rangers | .301 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Jayson Nix | White Sox | .319 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| Ramon Santiago | Tigers | .307 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| Chris Getz | White Sox | .312 | -5.8 | 0.2 |
| Luis Valbuena | Indians | .308 | -5.4 | 0.2 |
| Willy Aybar | Rays | .328 | -3.8 | 0.1 |
| Matt Tolbert | Twins | .278 | -2.6 | -0.2 |
| Alexi Casilla | Twins | .260 | -9.4 | -1.4 |
Punto was the 15th most-valuable second baseman in the league this year, and that's mostly because of his defense. Punto's .295 wOBA is second only to Yuniesky Betancourt's .271 as the worst of all qualified hitters in the league. However, I would argue that his versatility (Punto has played three different positions this season and is an above-average defender at each one) makes him more valuable to his team in general than other slightly above-average second-basemen such as Jose Lopez and Adam Kennedy, and probably even more valuable than the all-hit, no-glove Alberto Callaspo. He certainly isn't as valuable as someone like Maicer Izturis, who is above-average both offensively and defensively (as well as fairly versatile himself), but having him as a starter isn't exactly costing the team wins, either. Actually, the front office could probably just pick which position between second and short is most in need of an upgrade and have Punto start the other.
I think Punto is a good example of how a player might be overrated and yet somehow under-valued at the same time. People tend to love Punto because he's "scrappy" and "gritty" and he "plays the game the right way", often pointing to one or two brilliant defensive plays as evidence that he is one of the best defenders in the league. Except his defense, while solid, isn't quite that good, and is in fact just barely good enough to make up for his pathetic offense. And really, if it weren't for his versatility, Punto would be about as valuable to the Twins as Matt Tolbert.
Haters, on the other hand, point to his numerous baserunning gaffes, occasional defensive lapses, and paltry .322 on-base percentage as proof that Little Nicky has no place on any major-league roster anywhere. But his skills, limited as they may be, are still pretty valuable nonetheless. It isn't easy to find players that can play one position adequately, let alone three. He might not be one of the best hitters in the league, but Punto does take a lot of pitches (4.2 per plate appearance), and subsequently he tends to draw a lot of walks without striking out a whole lot. It's enough to make him worth $5.5 million this year, and his 2-year, $8.5 million contract, while hardly a bargain, looks to be at least market value.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Somebody Pinch Me
Holy crap, spending money on free agents who might actually improve the team? Are these really our Twins? After snagging Jim Thome from the bargain bin, they've now inked second baseman Orlando Hudson to a reasonable one year, $5 million deal. If he can get Joe Mauer locked up in a ridiculously team-friendly extension, I may be forced to take back every mean thing I've ever said about Bill Smith. My schedule is pretty brutal this semester so I haven't had much time to write (or read, for that matter, sorry fellow baseball bloggers), but lots of other smart people have already weighed in:
Some of Hudson's new teammates expressed their delight with the signing on Twitter:
thisisdspan:
Wake up this morning to see we signed the o dog! If ur a twins fan today u have to be juiced! I thought we already were lookin good beforePatNeshek:
Love the O-Hud signing, what a team!
Aaron Gleeman points out that, even though Hudson has slipped a bit defensively and hits into a ton of double plays, he provides a significant upgrade over the Twins' current second base options at a reasonable price. That's right, the middle infield will now be above replacement-level for the first time since Jason Bartlett was dealt to the Rays. I think I've forgotten what that looks like.
Dave Cameron also approves. Actually, he's approved of pretty much all the moves the Twins made this year. I'm not sure I'm ready for a world in which Dave Cameron thinks the Twins are a well-run organization.
Howard Sinker and Andrew at Off the Mark think this is the best offseason the Twins have had in years, and I agree. Of course, there is one more little issue that still needs to be resolved.
Over at Twinkie Town, Adam Peterson has done the math and figured out how much Thome and Hudson might improve the team (though it was written before the Hudson signing was official).
Who will be designated for assignment to make room for the O-Dog on the 40-man roster? It might be Alexi Casilla.
Of course, as Cameron notes, the tough free agent market is the only reason someone like Hudson was even in the Twins' price range in the first place. Teams don't want to overspend on free agents in this economy, preferring to give younger and cheaper players a starting job instead. Elite players like Mark Teixeira will always command top dollar, but lesser type-A free agents like Hudson (and Johnny Damon) will probably struggle to find work. It's a shame that such players will have to settle for far less money than they're really worth, but this new market inefficiency may work in the favor of smaller and mid-market teams like the Twins.
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