Well Played, Mauer

Yeah, yeah, yeah, paying a 35 year-old catcher $23 million a season might not be the smartest move ever, but whatever.  I fully expect the Twins to be in rebuilding mode by then, after winning the world series a couple of times, naturally.  Although, come to think of it, the Twins might not be paying a 35 year-old Mauer $23 million a season.  Oh sure, the extension is for eight years, but beat writer LaVelle E. Neal, III revealed this interesting tidbit:

While chasing down a Mauer rumor last week that wasn't true, I had heard that the sides weren't that close to a deal. But indications are that Mauer and Shapiro got together over the last couple of days and realized that the Twins weren't going to improve on their offer and took it.

The details of the extension will probably be made public during tomorrow's press conference, but I'm guessing there is an opt-out clause in there somewhere.  Like C. C. Sabathia with the Yankees, I'm guessing Mauer and his agent negotiated a deal where Mauer could opt out of his contract after a certain number of years (after 2011, in Captain Cheeseburger's case) and enter the free agent market, where he will most likely command a much higher price tag than $23 million a season.  Of course, it's also possible that I'm reading way too much into this and maybe he just really wanted to stay in Minnesota.

UPDATE:  Nope, there's nothing like that in the contract.  It's just $23 million a year for eight years, with a full no-trade clause.  I guess he really hearts us and wants to stay after all.  Twinkie Town has all the highlights and links to the video of his press conference (MLB is still stuck in the non-embeddable dark ages), and here is what Man Muscles had to say for himself:

Ever since I was a little kid I dreamed of playing in the big leagues, and what better place to do it than seven miles from where you grew up?  It's home for me.

Of course, pretty much everyone in major league baseball had to weigh in.   I guess it's kind of a big deal when the American League MVP decides to take less money to stay with his hometown team (though not much less, since he was reportedly asking $25 million a year, and he's still the fourth-highest paid player in baseball and the highest-paid catcher in MLB history).  However, I think Ozzie Guillen, as usual, said it best:

I wish they didn't sign him so he can go somewhere else and I don't have to face him 19 times. But it's a great for him and great for baseball. God bless his mom and enjoy the money. If you don't know where to spend it, I send him my number.

Eek

It's official: Joe Nathan will need Tommy John surgery. It's not unexpected news, since it's unlikely he would have been able to pitch an entire season with a torn UCL, but it's disappointing nonetheless.  I hate to be a negative Nancy, and I really hope I'm wrong about this, but it looks like this might be the end for Nathan. Optimistically, he will be ready for the start of the 2011 season, but realistically the recovery time from Tommy John is typically two years. This means Nathan will be pushing 37 by the time he's fully ready to pitch again, and the likelihood of a 37 year-old making a complete comeback from TJ is slim.  This makes me sad.  Not only has Nathan quietly been one of the best relievers of the decade, but he's just eight saves away from surpassing Rick Aguilera as the franchise all-time saves leader.  Plus I don't want his pitiful performances in the ALDS to be among his last appearances in a Twins uniform*.

*There's one thing about Nathan that keeps coming up in discussions about his career, and it drives me crazy because it's so obviously a sample-size issue, but I'll have a separate post about it later (No really, I will. It'll take about 5 minutes to write).

So, how much will losing their All-Star closer actually hurt the Twins? Well, losing a 2 WAR reliever like Nathan usually costs a team 2-3 wins over the course of the season.  And that doesn't sound like a lot, but considering that the division race has come down to the wire the past couple of seasons, with an extra playoff game needed to determine the winner, losing Nathan is obviously going to hurt.  However, the Twins were heavily favored to win the division before Nathan went down, and the bullpen is deep enough that a competent replacement should emerge from within the organization.  The division race is certainly more wide-open now, but the White Sox and Tigers are both deeply flawed teams, and the Twins should still be considered slight favorites to win the Central.

As for possible replacements, Nick Nelson, Aaron Gleeman, and Joe Posnanski have already explored the issue in greater depth.  I favor the closer-by-committee approach, though I know Gardy doesn't and he'll probably name a permanent replacement within the first few weeks of the season.  Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch seem to be the frontrunners for the ninth-inning job, although Pat Neshek is having a great spring** and certainly can't be counted out, either.  Prospect Anthony Slama, who had often come up in discussions as a possible replacement for Nathan after the 2012 season, also looks impressive in camp, but he's never pitched in the major leagues (he isn't even on the 40-man roster) and it's unlikely Gardy would stick him in high-leverage situations right away.  Others favor converting Francisco Liriano to closer, but the organization is loath to do so, and for good reason.  If Liriano is even somewhat close to his 2006 form, heck, if he's even above league-average this year, he's much more valuable as a starter than a reliever (besides, if he can't get his walk and home run rates under control, he probably shouldn't be closing anyway).

**Yes, spring training numbers are meaningless, and no, I wouldn't count on a guy who hasn't pitched in two years to close out games, either.

I tend to think Nathan's replacement will come from within the organization.  There isn't much out there on the market in terms of bullpen help, and a good reliever with closer experience (such as Heath Bell) will likely cost too much in terms of prospects.  Besides, Twins' closers have pretty much always come from within.  Joe Nathan emerged when Eddie Guardado left (seriously, the panic over Everyday Eddie leaving is kind of funny in hindsight), and Guardado replaced the sucktastic LaTroy Hawkins, who replaced the departing Rick Aguilera, who replaced the departing Jeff Reardon, and on and on.  I'm not going to venture to guess who might emerge as the closer-of-the-near-future, but right now the Twins' best bet would simply be to wait and see who wins the job.

Maybe Denard Can Quit His Internship Now

You know, after signing that 5-year, $16.5 million contract extension and all.

Four More Years

Well, it wasn't the contract extension we've been waiting for, but the Twins announced they signed Nick Blackburn to a 4-year, $14 million deal with a club option for 2014.  On the surface, this looks like a ridiculously good deal for the Twins.  The details of the contract haven't been released yet, but this is essentially a cost-controlling move, with the Twins buying out the rest of Blackburn's arbitration years as well as his first year of free agency.  Blackburn has been a 5.5 WAR pitcher since making his debut as a September call-up in 2007, tossing around 200 innings a season and posting a 4.39 ERA.  He isn't exactly what anyone could (or should) consider the ace of the rotation, but Blackbeard is the sort of reliable workhorse most teams would love to have rounding out their rotation.  As long as he continues to gobble up innings and turn in at least league-average performances, Blackbeard will be worth the $14 million.

However, this deal isn't without risk.  Blackbeard will be locked up until he's 32, and typically pitchers with pedestrian stuff and a high contact rate don't age well.  I've gone over Blackbeard's limitations as a pitcher in greater detail here, and, well, I'm not really sure how he's managed to pitch as well as he has up to this point.  He gives up a lot of hits, he has a pretty mediocre ground ball rate, he gives up an awful lot of fly balls for a sinkerballer, he doesn't strike out many batters, really the only thing he does well is not issue a ton of walks. Considering that Blackburn only has two full seasons in the major leagues under his belt, the timing of this deal seems odd.  He's under team control for at least the next three seasons, and isn't likely to make that much in arbitration, so what's the harm in making him wait at least another year to prove his success isn't a fluke?  I realize that the Twins want to control payroll costs as much as possible, and locking up players through their final arbitration years is a good way to do that, but it just seems like too risky a proposition for a player with so little upside.