The Giants Win the Pennant, but the Texas Rangers Will Probably Win the World Series

I hate to count the Giants out, I really do.  I don't think anyone expected them to get past the Phillies, and yet they handled Philly pretty easily in the NLCS.  And if this postseason has shown us anything, it's that the best team doesn't always win and that baseball is unpredictable and all that.  But, after digging deeper into the numbers, I just don't see how the Giants are going to win.

It is no secret that the offense has been one of the Giants' biggest weaknesses this season.  Their .318 team wOBA ranked 9th in the NL, their .151 ISO is barely above average, and their overall .257/.321/.408/.729 line is pretty mediocre in a league where the pitcher gets three at-bats in a game.  Their one bright spot has been in NLCS MVP and noted scrapheap pickup Cody Ross, who batted .288/.354/.466/.819 with the Giants and .324/.395/.794/1.189 in the postseason, with four pretty clutch home runs. However, Ross is also a career .265/.323/.466/.788 hitter, so I'm not sure I would count on him to singlehandedly beat the Rangers like he did the Phillies and Braves.

The Rangers, on the other hand, had one of the best offenses in the American League.  Their .333 wOBA ranked fifth behind the Yankees (who, by the way, Texas destroyed in the ALCS), Red Sox, Twins, and Blue Jays.  Their .143 ISO isn't very impressive, especially in a hitters' park like Arlington, but they scored 90 more runs than the Giants and their overall .276/.338/.419/.757 line is better.  Also, they have this guy, um, I think his name is Jason Hamilton or something, who's pretty good.

As far as pitching goes, here are the probable starters:


Cliff Lee, 3.18 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 2.65 tERA, 10.28 K/BB ratio

vs.  

Tim Lincecum, 3.43 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, 3.46 tERA, 3.04 K/BB ratio

Colby Lewis, 3.72 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 3.52 tERA, 3.02 K/BB ratio

vs.

Jonathan Sanchez, 3.07 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.11 xFIP, 3.70 tERA, 2.14 K/BB ratio

C. J. Wilson,  3.35 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 3.81 tERA, 1.83 K/BB ratio

vs.

Matt Cain, 3.14 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 3.49 tERA, 2.90 K/BB ratio

Tommy Hunter, 3.73 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 4.70 xFIP, 5.17 tERA, 2.06 K/BB ratio

vs.

Madison Bumgarner, 3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 3.59 tERA, 3.31 K/BB ratio

The only game where the Giants might have a potential advantage over the Rangers is in game four.   The lefty Madison Bumgarner has a good shot at shutting down the Rangers' potent offense, while Tommy Hunter struggled a bit in his last postseason start (though the Rangers managed to beat the Yankees anyway, 10-3). The two bullpens are pretty equal, except Neftali Feliz hasn't been quite as good as Brian Wilson.  So, if the Giants do somehow manage to take a late lead against the Rangers, they will probably hang onto it.

If there are any silver linings for the Giants, it's that Texas hasn't hit very well on the road all year long.  Sure, the Rangers scored 36 runs on the road against the Rays and the Yankees in the postseason, but in a small sample sizes of just 7 games (and Yankee stadium is a notorious hitters' park).  Over the entire season, the Rangers batted just .265/.324/.391/.716 on the road.  The Giants do have home-field advantage thanks to Brian McCann, and AT&T park tends to slightly favor pitchers, but I don't think this San Francisco lineup can solve Tommy Hunter, let alone Cliff Lee.


My prediction:  Texas in 6.

No, Wait, This is the Most Beautiful Thing Ever

via Fangraphs

This series has been both frustrating and enormously entertaining to watch, because the Yankees have looked vulnerable almost the entire time (save for game 5, and maybe game 1).  They didn't look vulnerable at all in the ALDS, sweeping a Twins team that was better (at least on paper) in almost every single way.  Texas made beating the Yankees look easy, and that was extremely frustrating to watch.  On the other hand, Texas made my least favorite team ever look silly in almost every game, and that was a lot of fun to watch. 

Also, the first person to whine about poor television ratings in the World Series just because a certain large-market behemouth won't be in it gets a swift kick in the balls.  If you can't get excited for a Cliff Lee-Roy Halladay/Tim Lincecum matchup, then you are not a baseball fan.  Unless, of course, you are still depressed because your team got eliminated in the postseason (Yes, even if you are a Yankee fan.  I am not completely heartless).  Then it's cool.

This is the Most Beautiful Thing Ever

via Fangraphs

We might as well enjoy it now, because a Sabathia/Lee/Pettitte rotation won't be any fun in the postseason.

So Fresh and So Clean: Your 2010 NL MVP Candidates

While I am tempted to just give it to Cody Ross, sadly, postseason stats don't count in awards voting.  Here's a quick rundown of the best players in the National League this season, and who I would vote for if, you know, I actually had a vote.

Albert Pujols:  7.2 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, .312/.414/.596/1.011  The greatest player of his generation, and perhaps of all-time, had sort of a down season by his standards.  And yet he was still probably the best player in the league.

Joey Votto:  6.2 rWAR, 7.4 fWAR, .324/.424/.600/.1.024  However, Joey Votto might have had an even better season.  He nearly captured both the traditional and sabermetric triple crowns, and played no small part in helping Cincy clinch its first postseason berth in fifteen years.

Adrian Gonzalez:  6.3 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR, .336/.393/.598/.974  Adrian Gonzalez is your 2010 NL batting champ and finished in the top five in nearly every offensive category this season, sabermetric and otherwise.  Well, except for wins above replacement that is.  I don't know why fangraphs' WAR underrates the Padres' first baseman so much.  Maybe it's because he's a first baseman, and power-hitting first basemen aren't all that difficult to find.  I think he deserves some first place votes, and I will be stunned if he doesn't get any.

Ryan Zimmerman:  5.3 rWAR, 7.2 fWAR, .307/.388/.510/.899  Zimmerman deserves some love because he was far and away the best third baseman in the league this year.  Washington is starting to put together a halfway decent team.  I should probably do a longer post about that.

Troy Tulowitzki:  5.6 rWAR, 6.4 fWAR, .315/.381/.568/.949  If you wanted to say that Tulo was the most valuable player in the NL this year, I probably wouldn't argue with you.  He was the best shortstop in all of baseball this year, though he did miss about six weeks with a broken wrist.

Matt Holliday: 5.6 rWAR, 6.9 fWAR, .312/.390/.532/.922 The Cards didn't make the playoffs, but that is hardly Holliday's fault.  So far he's been everything the Redbirds thought they were getting when they signed him to a 7 year, $120 million deal in the offseason.  Between he, Pujols, and Adam Wainwright, the Cards had three of the best players in the NL this season.  It's a shame that it wasn't enough to clinch the division.

I think Joey Votto deserves to win the NL MVP, though it's close.  Really, I wouldn't quibble with the voters if they chose any of these guys on the list.

The Picked Off At First Guide to Picking a Postseason Team

If you're like me, your team was just eliminated from the postseason.  Or maybe your team never made it in the first place.  At any rate, if you still haven't settled on a team to cheer for in the playoffs, I have developed this handy (and hopefully helpful) guide:

The American League:

The Yankees:  Hahahahaha, yeah right.  Well, it's tempting for me to want to cheer for the Yanks simply because every team I pick seems to suffer some sort of postseason collapse, but it ain't gonna happen.  I have no problem with New Yorkers cheering for the Yankees, and I have no problem with people who come from generations of Yankee fans cheering on the Bronx Bombers.  I really have no idea why anyone else would root for them though; it's like going to the casino and cheering on the house:




The Rangers:  The Rangers have never won a postseason series ever in franchise history. That in and of itself would ordinarily be enough to make me want to root for them, but the Rangers are a great story.  They've had their share of bad ownership and financial troubles, but they've managed to overcome all of that to clinch their first postseason berth since 1999.   On top of all that, they have a lot of exciting young talent in Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, and Neftali Feliz, to name a few.  They've also got some great human interest stories if you're into that kind of thing, and I'm not talking about Josh Hamilton, either.  Seriously, the Colby Lewis story is like something out of Hollywood.  The only thing they have that I don't particularly like is Cliff Lee.

The Rays:  I also find it really hard to root against the Rays.  Like the Rangers, they've had to succeed on a shoestring budget, except they've had to do so in the toughest division in baseball.   C.C. Sabathia makes more in one season than the Rays' entire pitching staff.  Alex Rodriguez will make $32 million dollars this season; Evan Longoria will make $17.5 million over the entire length of his six-year deal.  Besides, even though he really isn't any good any more, I still find it impossible to root against Jason Bartlett.


The National League:


The Reds:  I would cheer for the Reds, but I don't think they're going to get past the Phillies.  Sorry.  I will say this, though:  as much as I love J.J. Hardy, I really, really miss Orlando Ballgame.


The Phillies:  I love Roy Halladay.  It makes me so supremely happy to watch him pitch in the postseason, and to pitch so well at that.  Between Doc, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and their potent offense, the Phillies probably have the best chance at beating the Yankees (should they make it that far) in the World Series.  And that is reason enough for me to cheer for them.


The Giants:  Tim Lincecum is my favorite non-Twin, and their starting rotation can probably match Philly's pitch-for pitch (well, except for Barry Zito, he sucks).  And let's face it, I have trouble rooting against the team whose front office gave us Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan for the low, low price of A. J. Pierzynski (thank you, Brian Sabean).  This is their first postseason appearance since the glory days of Barry Bonds and Rueben Rivera.  You want to talk about championship droughts?  Nineteen years is nothing.  The baseball Giants haven't won a World Series since moving to San Francisco.  The last time they won it all was in 1954, when they were still the New York Giants (the year my mom was born!).  There are entire generations of Giants fans who have never celebrated a world championship.  Having celebrated two of them in my lifetime, that just seems unbelievable to me.  I wouldn't mind one bit if Los Gigantes won it all this year.


The Braves:  I don't think the Twins can use injuries as an excuse for getting swept out of the postseason when the Braves have suffered the loss of Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, and now Billy Wagner and probably Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlen, and still managed to win a postseason game against one of the toughest starting rotations in the National League.  The loss of Prado is probably proving to be the most costly for the Bravos in the postseason, as they are now stuck with error machine Brooks Conrad at second base.  Or maybe the loss of Chipper Jones is the most costly, as they are now stuck with Omar Infante at third.  I was hoping for a rematch of the 1991 World Series, but since that isn't going to happen, I will root for the Braves to win it for Bobby.

Ain't Nobody Dope As Me: Your 2010 AL MVP Candidates

Did I mention that I was going to do these in whatever order I felt like?  Cuz I am.  And since I felt like researching the MVPs, that's what I decided to write about.  Here are the most valuable players in the American League this year; I'll get to the National League whenever I feel like it.  That's just how I roll, baby.

Oh dear, we have a dilly of a pickle in the AL MVP race.  Here are the top five position players according to fWAR:

1)  Josh Hamilton, 7.9
2) Jose Bautista, 7.1
3) Adrian Beltre, 7.1
4)  Carl Crawford, 7.0
5)  Evan Longoria, 6.5

And rWAR:

1)  Evan Longoria, 7.6
2)  Shin-Soo Choo, 7.4
3)  Miguel Cabrera, 7.0
4) Adrian Beltre, 6.1
5)  Josh Hamilton, 5.8

So this highlights some of the problems with using wins above replacement as the be-all-and-end-all stat when it comes to evaluating player performances.  It's been talked about to death, but if the minds behind these stats can't agree, where does that leave the rest of us?  Come on guys, can we get a consensus, please? 

The fact that there is so much variation among the top position players in WAR also means that, much like the Cy Young races, there are a lot of guys having career years and any one of them probably deserves to win.  Josh Hamilton probably deserves it the most, but you could make a convincing case for any of Longoria, Cabrera, Beltre, and maybe Choo and Bautista (they aren't leading the league in either WAR, but you could probably include Robinson Cano and Paul Konerko on the list as well).  Don't believe me?  Here are their slash lines:

Hamilton:  .359/.412/.631/.1.043  Hamilton will probably win the batting title and he would be my pick for MVP, but he also missed the last three weeks of September with bruised ribs.   Texas had already wrapped up the division at that point so it might seem kind of silly to hold his missed time against him, but the voters are funny like that.

Cabrera:  .328/.420/.622/1.042  Miggy has had a pretty comparable season to Hamilton, but I would give the edge to Hamilton because, even though Cabrera is a very good hitter, it isn't as though power-hitting first basemen are in short supply (it's the same reason I wouldn't give Konerko the MVP).  There isn't a huge difference in positional value between first base and right field, but it's enough to tip the scales in Hamilton's favor. 


Bautista:  .263/.381/.635/1.0005  Bautista is currently leading the league in home runs and is the first AL player to hit more than 50 in a season since 2007.  I don't think Bautista is on steroids, nor do I think those all of those 54 homers are the result of a simple adjustment in his swing.  I think this season is what we stat geeks like to call an outlier.  His walk and strikeout rates are right in line with his career averages, but his 21.9  HR/FB% has 'career year' written all over it.  Some of his power surge is undoubtedly real, but I would be very surprised if Bautista hit more than 30 home runs in a season again.  The 28 year old is having a fantastic season, but since it looks like it might be at least a little bit of a fluke, I don't feel comfortable giving him the award.

Beltre:  .321/.365/.553/.919  Beltre has been one of the bright spots for an injury-riddled Boston team, and he's likely going to get a nice paycheck next year, whether it's from the Red Sox or someone else.  Still, since he didn't single-handedly carry the Sox into the postseason, it's unlikely he'll get many first-place votes.  Like it or not (I don't), that is how the BBWAA voters tend to think. 

Choo: .300/.401/.484/.886  The Indians have won all of 69 games and haven't been in contention since 2007, so the chances of Choo actually getting the award are pretty slim.  Which is a shame, as Choo has been among the game's elite players this season, and one of the few things Cleveland fans have had to cheer for. 

Longoria:  .294/.372/.507/.879  Longoria has been one of the best all around players in the league for three years in a row, and, for those who believe the MVP should come from a playoff-bound team, there is no doubt the Rays are one of the best teams in the AL this year. Josh Hamilton has been having a better offensive season in every way, but if you choose to hold his injuries against him, then Longo is probably the next best pick.