Patrick Reusse is the Voice of Reason

That isn't meant as a slam on Mr. Reusse.  I do enjoy his work for the most part, though I don't often agree with his conclusions.  I find his dismissal of all things sabermetrics extremely irritating, mostly because he comes across as a grumpy old man who hates the new-fangled stats because they're new.  He is a master storyteller though, and occasionally he even provides some insightful analysis. His latest article places the blame on the Twins' miserable season squarely where it belongs:  on the slew of injuries that has decimated the team (it's also something the Twins Geek touched on earlier this week).  Reusse is pretty spot-on:

There's no farm system that could mend this many wounds created by injuries. There's no manager who could plot or no clubhouse leader who could inspire to fill this many holes. 

------snip------

The 10 key players have made 70.1 percent of the Twins' plate appearances -- and that number isn't going to get better any time soon.

There's a difference between making an excuse and looking at reality, and the reality is the Twins' season has been ruined by an unrelenting run of injuries to key players.

You don't need fancy stats to draw that conclusion, but I think they'll help illustrate just how much injuries have hurt the Twins.  Let's look at the two problem areas, the lineup and the bullpen, in terms of wins above replacement.  WAR isn't exactly a perfect stat, but it is good enough for our purposes.  We just trying to estimate the effect of losing key players to injury on overall team production, so we don't really need an exact measure of player value. These are the players who have logged the most plate appearances at each position, and the relievers who have logged at least 10 innings thus far:

It's tempting to pin all the blame on the front office.  After all, the bullpen has been relatively healthy, and they've still stunk.  Bill Smith made some moves that looked questionable at the time and seem downright idiotic now:  he traded J. J. Hardy for Jim Hoey and some other middle relievers; he didn't make any attempt to re-sign Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, or Jon Rauch, or to add any other free agent reliever; and he traded away Jose Morales for a reliever who later turned out to have brain cancer.  If that wasn't bad enough, GMBS spent all that money he saved on: Carl Pavano (2 years, $16.5 million), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (3 years, $9.25 million; not a bad gamble, though it hasn't paid off so far), and Matt Capps (1 year, $7.5 million). The team was left with little depth at catcher, in the bullpen, and the infield, and woefully unprepared to deal with even minor injuries. 

However, the poor planning in and of itself doesn't entirely explain the Twins' 33-45 record; poor luck certainly plays a role as well.  Here's what the same lineup would look like if the Twins kept both Hardy and Orlando Hudson:

It's not really a huge improvement, at least not enough to offset the horrible production out of the bullpen.  Actually, both Hudson and Hardy have spent time on the DL early in the season, so it's a good bet that the middle infield would still have been some combination of Alexi Casilla/Trevor Plouffe/Luke Hughes.  Of course, the Twins almost certainly would have gotten more value out of Hudson and Hardy than Casilla and Nishioka, but they would still probably be close to ten games under .500 right now.  We could go even farther and pretend the Twins kept Morales as well, but the difference between he and Butters this season (0.2 fWAR, 0.1 rWAR) is pretty negligible. 

Another hypothetical:  let's pretend the Twins decided not to trade for Matt Capps in the first place.  Starting Wilson Ramos instead of Drew Butera would certainly help ease the loss of Joe Mauer, right?  Well, sort of:

This is an offense that would still likely rank somewhere near the middle of the pack in the American League.  It's better than being in the bottom third, and the Twins might be closer in the standings to the Tigers than the Royals, but they still need everyone to get healthy and the bullpen to not suck if they hope to crack the .500 mark.  There is little doubt, though, that this team would be in a better position to make up ground in the division should both of those things happen. 

Now, let's pretend the bullpen doesn't suck.  Or at least pretend that Bill Smith opted to cut Capps (or never acquired him in the first place, you choose) and re-signed every free agent in the bullpen.  I figured Jesse Crain would take over Capps' role as the closer, Matt Guerrier would replace Alex Burnett, and the Twins would never have acquired Dusty Hughes or Jim Hoey if they kept Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch, but you could probably swap out the relievers any way you like:

Instead of one of the worst 'pens in all of baseball, we have a pretty decent crop of relievers.  Combined with the mediocre Ramos lineup, the Twins might be eight or nine games below .500 instead of twelve.  That's right, in the very best-case scenario, the Twins might improve their current record by about four games.  Of course, the best-case scenario was just unrealistic; the Twins simply didn't have the money to keep all of these guys around, and they don't like to sign relievers to multi-year deals anyway (and for good reason, but that's an entirely different post).  They obviously didn't put themselves in the best position to weather an injury crisis, but it's also really tough to plan on losing over 30% of the active roster to the disabled list. 

Still I Wonder Why it Ain't Right

graph:  Fangraps, image: dunno source, email me if it's yours

I am working on a post about the cause of the Twins' woes this season (spoiler alert:  it's not due to managerial mishaps by Ron Gardenhire or a lack of leadership in the clubhouse), and it's taking me a lot longer than anticipated. This photoshop MS Paint thingy I made of last night's game won't be relevant by the time I get done, but I spent all of 10 minutes making it and didn't want it to go to waste, so, uh, here it is.

The Twins, The Wolves, The Wild

Apologies for the lack of posts lately, but I've been super busy at work.  I've had to start working weekends again for the first time in over a year.  Thankfully, I won't have to do it forever, just until the first week of September.  Of course, by then school will have started and I will still be way too busy to do much writing.  Ahh, life.  Anyway, here are a few notes from the recent roadtrip, as well as a few non-Twins related items:

• Joe Mauer is back, but he ain't hitting. Man Muscles is 4-29 since coming off the DL on June 17th, with three singles, a double, a walk and three strikeouts.  There are some legitimate reasons to be concerned about Joe:  his walk rate is way down (5.9%), his strikeout rate is way up (14.3%), and he's hitting a lot more ground balls (4.22 GB/FB %).  It isn't as though he's been suffering from bad luck, either; his line drive rate is down to 14.5%, from a career 25.0% norm.  Hopefully, his recent struggles are more the result of not being in midseason form than lingering leg problems. 

You know, whatever he does, Joe Mauer cannot win.  If he tries to play through injuries, his production suffers and he gets criticized because he isn't hitting.  When he goes on the DL, he gets criticized for being soft and unable to play through injuries.  When he tries to rush through rehab to spare the team any more Drew Butera and Rene Rivera at-bats, he gets criticized for trying to come back too soon.  I suppose this is the kind of thing you have to put up with when you are one of the highest-paid athletes in the game, but it seems to me that there is a contingent of the fanbase that has never appreciated what a rare talent the Twins have in Mauer.  He's won three batting titles while starting 708 games at the most demanding position on the field; he's already the greatest catcher in franchise history, and he's well on his way to becoming one of the greatest catchers of all time. If that isn't worth $180 million, then I don't know what is. 

• The injuries, they keep coming.  Justin Morneau had surgery to relieve a pinched nerve in his neck and isn't expected back for at least a couple of months.  That might explain his .113 ISO.  Also, Delmon Young sprained his ankle while chasing down a fly ball in Milwaukee on Saturday. An initial X-ray was clear, but he's supposed to get an MRI tomorrow.  Until then, it's hard to say exactly how long Delmon will be gone.

• The only way to win games is to keep the bullpen out of them.  Fun Fact:  Scott Baker has exited the game with the lead ten times this season, and five times, the bullpen has come in and blown it.
     

I made this about a month ago, but shelved it when the bullpen started to actually hold leads.  I don't normally make memes, since I prefer to leave that stuff to people who are, you know, actually funny, but when the bullpen has a 4.93 ERA, what else is there to do?  This is the worst 'pen in the league, and as as of right now, there is no easy way to fix it.  The front office can try to add relief arms via trade, and they can keep cycling through minor leaguers, but none of these options would really improve the team's chances at contending.  After all, the bullpen isn't the only problem facing the team; the lineup is still pretty weak, with Denard Span out with a concussion, Morneau out until sometime in August, Tsuyoshi Nishioka struggling to adjust to the major leagues, and Mauer still trying to get his legs under him.  Unless they can snag someone useful via the waiver wire, the Twins would be better off waiting until the offseason to address the bullpen, when they can better evaluate their options and perhaps find a few free agent bargains.

• The Woofs had a decent draft, and then they didn't.  David Kahn did some pretty smart things:

1. Taking the best player available and keeping him (for now).  
2. Trading Jonny Flynn and Donatas Motiejunas (the 20th overall pick) for Brad Miller, the 23rd pick, the 38th pick, a 2013 first-round pick, and a future second-round pick.
3. Trading down a few times for cash and more draft picks, which he used to take Malcolm Lee and Targuy Ngombo lower than projected. 

All in all, it looked pretty good.  A little too good.  As is typical for our Wolfies, things quickly started to fall apart:

1. Tanguy Ngombo is ineligible for the draft because he's 26 years old.  Whoops.  The pick will most likely be vacated, but the Wolves will still have to pay up for purchasing the pick from Dallas.   They could have just signed Ngombo as a free agent if they liked him that much and used the pick to draft an eligible player.  
2. Concerns over Flynn's health actually cost the Wolves a future second round pick, rather than receiving one from the Rockets.  They didn't get the 38th pick as initially reported either, so they won't be receiving extra cash from Houston for buying back the pick. 

Nevertheless, it was still a pretty OK draft.  Getting anything for Flynn is kind of a miracle in and of itself, and at least they got good value for Lee, who was projected to go much higher than 43.  Derrick Williams is the consensus second-best player in the draft, though the Woofs now have more power forwards than they know what to do with (and still no quality centers or shooting guards).  It takes an intelligent and creative organization to find roles and playing time for all these guys, so it will be very interesting to see whether the Wolves will make it work.  I'm hoping they do, because the team as it stands, with Williams, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, and Ricky Rubio running the court, should be a lot of fun to watch.  Too bad we'll probably have to wait until next year. 

• Wild trade Brent Burns for Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, and a first-round pick (that they used to draft Zach Phillips). Getting a decent haul for one of your most valuable assets: this is the kind of thing I wish Bill Smith was good at.  GM Chuck Fletcher, aware of the fact that his team is still a few years away from contention, dealt his All-Star defenseman to address a couple of the team's biggest weaknesses; namely, a lack of offensive firepower and little depth at center.  Devin Setoguchi tends to be an inconsistent scorer, but he likes to shoot the puck and should find a home on a line with Mikko Koivu and Pierre-Marc Bouchard.  The Wild also snagged a couple of young centers: a talented two-way forward in Coyle, and a solid prospect in Phillips.  Burnsie was one of my favorite players and I'm going to miss him dearly, but it isn't as though the team is lacking depth on defense.  The Sharks might win the Cup next year, but the Wild are starting to look like they may be a real threat in the Western Conference for years to come.
  

I Want to Believe

The Minnesota Twins were 16.5 games out of first place on June 1st.  Even though we were barely a third of the way through the season, that deficit seemed insurmountable at the time.  The Twins -- and I don't think there is any better way to say this -- sucked.  They had allowed nearly 100 more runs than they had scored.  They won all of nine games in April, and eight games in May.  Their 17-37 record was the worst in major-league baseball, and they were the only team in the American League more than ten games below .500. 

Eight games out of first in the middle of June, though?  That's nothing.  That seems pretty doable, especially for one of the best teams in the American League.  Yes, you read that right.  Okay, well, maybe not on offense.  In the month of June, the Twins are towards the middle of the pack in: runs scored (71, 6th in the AL), wOBA (.310, 9th), wRC+ (95, 8th), with a not-terrible .265/.320/.382/.702 slash line.  Of course, mediocre is a vast improvement for a lineup that was hitting like a National League pitcher for the first few months of the season, but it is the pitching staff that has been the real catalyst for the Twins' sudden surge in the standings.  The starting rotation leads the league in ERA (1.89), FIP (2.91), and xFIP (3.34); they are second in tERA (3.71) and innings pitched (110.1);  they are fourth in strikeouts (76), and they've given up the fewest walks (20).  The bullpen has been doing it's job as well, with a miniscule 1.65 ERA and a 21/9 K/BB ratio over 32.2 innings; a decent 3.56 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, and 3.48 tERA; their 1.24 WPA is second only to the Yankees in the AL.

Though they've gained 8.5 games in the standings in just a few weeks, and though the AL Central race remains wide open, I am skeptical that the Twins will be legitimate contenders.  Baseball Prospectus thinks it will take 85.5 wins to capture the division title, which means the Twins will have to win about 67% (or 55) of their remaining games to have a shot at making the playoffs. Somehow, I don't think that is realistic; after all, the Twins will have to go 50-42 the rest of the way just to finish at .500, and that seems rather optimistic for a team whose run differential has improved to -57 after outscoring its opponents by 33 runs in the last 16 games.  For the first 54 games of this season, the Twins were the worst team in baseball.  54 games certainly isn't a large sample size, but it is much larger than 16 games in June, and it can't be ignored just because the Twins are currently riding a hot streak. 

Holy F-Bomb

via Fangraphs, with a little help from MS paint

Four pitchers in baseball history have thrown two no-hitters in one season, and yesterday Francisco Liriano was six outs away from becoming one of them.  F-bomb actually had a perfect game going into the seventh inning, when Luke Hughes booted a grounder to third.  The play was scored an error, but was it?  SB Nation has the .gif, so you can decide for yourself.  My gut reaction upon viewing the play was that the scorer was right:  it would have been a tough play but Hughes probably could have made it if he hadn't kicked the ball into the Rangers' dugout.  Upon further review, I still think it was correctly ruled as an error, though the speedy Elvis Andrus certainly would have been a close play.  According to FSN's Tyler Mason, Hughes felt awful about messing up Liriano's shot at perfection and told him as much, though F-bomb apparently took it in stride:

I was like, 'My bad, mate,'" Hughes said. "He's like, 'Hey, papi, it's OK.'

Hughes shouldn't be too hard on himself, though. He put the Twins ahead with an RBI single in the first inning, and he made a spectacular diving grab to preserve the perfecto in the fourth.  Besides, a couple of batters later, Adrian Beltre spoiled the no-hit bid with a soft single into shallow center field, so it isn't as though he cost Liriano his place in baseball history all by himself.  Liriano was done after eight innings and 96 pitches, and Alex Burnett pitched a perfect ninth to seal the Twins' third straight series victory.  Minny has now won eight of its past ten games and gained 7.5 games in the standings in twelve days.  They also passed the Astros and the Cubs for sole possession of the third worst record in baseball.  Look out Oakland, the Twins be comin'.

Liriano's near no-no was actually more impressive than the actual no-hitter he tossed against the White Sox on May 3rd. In that game, his command was spotty and he walked three times as many batters as he struck out.  F-bomb was hardly unhittable in that performance; the Southsiders made contact on 85.4% of his pitches, but they couldn't get any of them to fall in for hits.  If it is possible to be effectively wild, then F-bomb was it.  There wasn't anything wild about Liriano in this start, though he was definitely effective, striking out nine (all but two swinging) without walking anyone.  It wasn't as though home plate umpire Doug Edding's strike zone was particularly generous, either:

courtesy Texasleaguers.com

Liriano has always had a ton of talent, but he's never quite put it all together like he did yesterday.  His slider was dancing like it was 2006, and the Rangers whiffed on 34.5% of them.  The velocity on his fastball has been back up in the 92-93 mph range for awhile now, but until yesterday, he has never demonstrated decent command of the pitch.  Liriano threw 59.4% of his four seamers for strikes, spotting the pitch pretty much where he wanted it all afternoon long.  Texas is third in the league in wOBA, third in ISO, and tied with the Blue Jays for second in wRC+, and they don't strike out much, just 17% of the time, the lowest rate in the league.  Yet, they struck out nine times and swung-and-missed on 49.1% of Liriano's pitches.  It may not have been as impressive as Johan Santana's 17-strikeout game (which, incidentally, also came against the Rangers), but it is definitely one of the best pitching performances by a Twin in the past ten years.

After getting roughed up early in the season, Liriano now has surrendered just nine runs since his return from the disabled list on May 3. His ERA has dropped from 9.13 at the end of April, to 4.62, and he's got a 33/17 K/BB ratio.  Whether his early struggles stemmed from trying to pitch to contact, or a shoulder problem, or both, he appears to have put it all behind him.  Provided he can stay healthy, there is little reason to think Liriano won't continue to dominate the American League.  It might be too little, too late to help vault the Twins into contention, but it should make for more watchable baseball down the stretch.

You Insult Me in My Home

via Fangraphs

You're forgiven this time, Rangers.  The Twins responded in kind to yesterday's 9-3 beat down.  Colby Lewis didn't even make it out of the second inning, surrendering six runs on seven hits to the most fearsome lineup in the Midwest League:

Ben Revere:   .264/.293/.278/.571, 75 PA.  Revere went 2-for-5, scoring a pair of runs, and made a couple of spectacular catches in center field to preserve what was a no-hitter at the tine.  I am skeptical about Revere's ability to hit in the bigs, given the fact that he's walked about as much as he's struck out in the minors, but at this point I don't think he could be worse than Delmon Young.  At least he would be an upgrade in the field.

Alexi Casilla: .244/.310/.321/.632, 190 PA.  Casilla continued his torrid streak by collecting three hits, driving in a run, and scoring a couple of runs. His OPS is now right around league average for a shortstop. 

Michael Cuddyer: .266/.329/.410/.739, 243 PA.  Cuddles increased his trade value likelihood of re-signing with the Twins by a pair of hits and an RBI.

Delmon Young:  .233/.262/.301/.562, 172 PA.  Young went 3-for-4 with 2 RsBI and a run scored.  He will make $5.375 million this year, and he's got one more year of arbitration left.  Frankly, I would like to see what the Twins could get for him at the deadline, though I suspect it won't be much.

Rene Tosoni:  .171/.237/.257/.494, 38 PA. Denard Span's emergency replacement went 0-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.

Danny "Doghouse" Valencia:  .220/.283/.335/.618, 247 PA. Valencia also went 0-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.  That is no way to get on Gardy's good side, Danny.

Brian Dinkelman:  .143/.333/.143/.333, 9 PA. 1-for-4 with a pair of RsBI. 

Rene Rivera:  .224/.296/.347.643, 54 PA. 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts.  I don't know who is going to be sent down when Joe Mauer comes back, but I'm guessing it will be Drew Butera.  Butters, unlike Rivera, still has options, and I don't think the Twins are keen on losing any of their catching depth, given how little of it is left in the system. 


Matt Tolbert:  .206/254/.308/.563, 117 PA. 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI, so it was one of the best games of his career.

Meanwhile, Scott Baker was awesome; he took a no-hitter into the fifth inning, and finished nine strong innings of one-run, seven-strikeout ball while walking absolutely nobody whatsoever.  On paper, this looked like a poor match-up for T. Scott.  The Rangers like to hit home runs.  They are second in the AL to the Yankees in home runs this season, with 75.  Baker likes to give up home runs; 12.5% of his fly balls have left the park this season.  Good thing games aren't played on paper. 

Walkoff Wins are Fun

via Fangraphs

Okay, so there wasn't all that much at stake in this game.  If the Twins win, they no longer have the worst record in baseball (thanks, Houston!).  If they lose, well, they are one step closer to getting the first overall pick in the 2012 draft.  Still, it is a lot more fun to watch your favorite team win than lose, especially in such dramatic fashion. 

Of course, there would have been no need for late-inning heroics if it were not for several defensive miscues in the sixth inning.  Nick Blackburn overthrew first base by a foot, allowing Josh Hamilton to reach second on an infield hit.  He later scored when Adrian Beltre singled to center field.  The very next batter, Nelson Cruz, reached when Danny Valencia watched a routine grounder skip past him into the outfield, sending Beltre to third base.  Beltre later scored on a sacrifice fly by Mitch Moreland.  When all was said and done, the Rangers scored a pair of runs and cut their deficit to one run.   Those runs could have cost the Twins the game; one inning later, Cruz tied things up with a mammoth home run off of Nick Blackburn.  Obviously, that wasn't the case this time, but the Twins' atrocious defense is certainly one of the reasons they are a last-place team.  I think I'll write a post about that when I'm not so tired. 

Twins are Full of Surprises in Game, Draft

via Fangraphs

When the Twins were down 2-0 early in the game, I didn't really expect them to come back.  Scott Baker didn't look like he had anything out there, and scoring more than two runs is a lot to ask of a lineup with a combined .294 wOBA.  Sometimes, I am happy to be wrong. Baker didn't exactly put forth one of his best performances:  allowing nine hits, three runs, two home runs, and recording five strikeouts in seven innings, but it was good enough.  The re-vamped lineup dinked and dunked Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin to death, scoring three runs in the fourth on a safety squeeze, a double-play, and a wild pitch. Delmon Young added an RBI bloop double/opponent fielding misadventure in the fifth.  Scoring three runs without a ball leaving the infield, and another on a blooper to the outfield?  Looks like the Piranhas are back.  The bullpen tried, but failed, to give the lead back.  The Twins have now won five games in a row for the first time this season.

More surprising than the Indians finally starting to play like the Indians, however, is what the Twins did in the draft.  Typically they target toolsy outfielders and low-upside college pitchers with good control, but this time they broke with tradition and selected a couple of infielders and a lefty with a live arm.  I like the Levi Michael pick, I like it a lot.  I don't like to get too excited about prospects on draft day, since plenty of things can go wrong during a prospect's development, but it's been a long time since a decent middle infield prospect has come up through the system.  And I can't help it; the more I read about the switch-hitting shortstop, the more I like him.  From John Sickels, of Minor League Ball and SB Nation:

What sort of kid is Levi Michael? He graduated from high school a semester early, and what should have been his senior season in high school instead became his freshman season in top-flight Division I college baseball ... and he batted .290 with 13 home runs and helped lead the Tar Heels to the College World Series.

The Twins got lucky that Michael fell as far as he did.  As the best shortstop available, he was projected to go much higher, but an ankle injury that hampered his 2011 season apparently scared off a lot of other teams.  The injury isn't expected to linger though, so it shouldn't affect his development.  Gosh, that sounds an awful lot like the Kyle Gibson story.  If he sticks at short, the Twins will be getting a real bargain.  If he doesn't, well, he's still probably the best infielder in the system right now. 

The Twins also selected a couple of intriguing high-schoolers with their supplemental picks: third baseman Travis Harrison and pitcher Hudon Boyd.  Harrison has a ton of power potential but is, by all accounts, a liability in the field, and seems destined for DH duty.  Boyd is a big lefty with a fastball that occasionally touches 95 mph, and projects to be either a mid-rotation starter or reliever.  Both sound pretty committed to their college choices, though, so I'm not optimistic about signing either one.  I would be happy to be wrong, though.

Fun With Run Differential: What a Difference a Four-Game Sweep Makes

The Twins outscored the Royals 26-6 in this series, improving their run differential by 20 runs in just four games. Of course, they still have the worst run differential in baseball by a pretty wide margin, but hey, it's progress. If they can continue outscoring their opponents by an average of five runs per game, it will only take another 15 games to reach a positive run differential. Look out Cleveland, here come the Twins!

Send In Your Skeletons

via Fangraphs

It's never-ending, never-ending, same old story:  injuries once again forced Ron Gardenhire to cobble together a lineup out of Rochester's finest. Justin Morneau was out with a pinched nerve in his neck and a sore wrist, and Denard Span was a last-minute scratch due to a sore neck. This what Gardy came up with:

Ben Revere, CF
Alexi Casilla, SS
Michael Cuddyer, 1B
Danny Valencia, 3B
Delmon Young, DH
Ben Revere, RF
Brian Dinkelman, LF
Rene Rivera, C
Matt Tolbert, 2B

Not exactly a collection of the most feared hitters in the International League, let alone the AL, and yet they managed to score seven runs.  Alexi Casilla collected four hits for just the second time in his career; Matt Tolbert went 2-for-4; Brian Dinkelman reached base three times in his debut, including an intentional walk (!); and Michael Cuddyer added a solo shot in the top of the ninth.  The Twins have now won three games in a row, and this is the first time they have won a series other than a two-game series all season long.  In other news, the Indians lost to the Rangers, which means the Twins are now only 13.5 games out of first place.  According to Coolstandings, their playoff odds have risen to 0.2%.  This is gonna be one epic comeback. 

As if the list of injured Twins weren't long enough, Nick Blackburn left the game after the fifth inning with a sore back.  He doesn't seem to think the injury is serious though, so he should make his next start.  Anthony Slama, Jim Hoey, Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett, and Phil Dumatrait did not allow a single run in relief.  I'm not sure if this means the bullpen is turning a corner, or that the Royals are still the Royals.  I am hoping it is the former, but the latter is far more likely.  

Today in Arbitrary Milestones: Carl Pavano's 100th Win

graph: Fangraphs; Butters Show poster:  dunno source, email me if it's yours

Carl Pavano won his 100th game last night.  That isn't a lot, especially for someone with 13 major league seasons under his belt, but it is kind of remarkable given that Pavano looked all but finished after his stint with the Yankees.  After pitching just 145 innings with a 5.00 ERA in New York, Pavano, not surprisingly, didn't get a ton of offers during the winter of 2008.  He got kind of lucky that the rebuilding Indians, after trading away C.C. Sabathia and with the uncertain status of Fausto Carmona, were willing to take a flyer on a cheap but oft-injured veteran.  He was luckier still that the contending Twins were willing to overlook his 5.37 ERA when they dealt for him at the deadline, and the rest, as they say, is history.  Pavano has been one of the most durable starters over the past couple of seasons, and he's become a fan favorite here in Minnesota.  He hasn't gotten off to the hottest of starts this season, with his ERA dropping to 4.83 after last night's two run complete game, but the Twins' poor infield defense probably deserves some of the blame.  Pavano's strikeout rate has dipped to 3.45 per nine innings, but he isn't issuing many walks (1.95 BB/9) and he's still getting lots of ground balls (1.33 GB/FB%).  He isn't giving up too many home runs, either, with a 6.0 HR/FB ratio.  Pavano has already racked up 1.0 fWAR (-0.3 rWAR) and should be worth the $8 million he's getting paid this season. 

I don't know what happened in New York, but I don't think Pavano's injury problems had to do with a lack of character.  He seems to be the victim of both poor luck and some really dumb decisions, but it appears that, contrary to what the tabloids have alleged, he was actually hurt.  I don't think that he was faking injuries just because he couldn't handle the spotlight, or didn't want to pitch, or anything like that.  He was, after all, apparently mulling a return to New York this offseason, before the Twins offered him the multi-year deal he was looking for.  I doubt he would have even considered another turn with the Yankees, especially with a fanbase that hates him and some of his toughest critics still in the clubhouse, if his character were an issue.

The offense helped Pavano seal his 100th career victory, with Drew Butera of all people driving in two of the Twins' three runs.  Butters has shown a little life at the plate recently, batting .375/.400/1.000/1.400 in his past three games.  He's raised his OPS to a season-high .399.  *Sigh* Remember when the Twins' catchers won batting titles?  That was awesome.

The Timberwolves are Saved!

Ricky Rubio is coming, you guys! Sure, hasn't shown much progression while playing with Regal Barcelona the past two years, though his performance this season was likely hindered by a foot injury. But the current crop of point guards makes me weep, and I don't think he could be worse than Jonny Flynn. Flynn, taken in the first round of the 2009 draft, recently lost his starting job to Luke Ridnour. Yeah.

As for the draft, I would like to hope that the Cavs will pass on Kyrie Irving, but we all know the Woofs would never, ever, ever, ever, be that lucky. Why would the Wolves snag the best player available at a position of greatest need? Clearly David Stern the basketball gods hate them.

Speaking of the Wolves' poor luck in the draft, the former number one overall pick of the 1992 draft announced his retirement yesterday. Oh, what might have been. Ugh, what actually was.

Dig It Baby, Dig It Baby, Dig It a Hole

Graph:  Fangraphs; Awesome Twins coffin I am totally getting buried in someday: eternalimage.net

The Twins are now 20 games under .500?  The Twins are now 20 games under .500.  I can't remember the last time the Twins were 20 games under .500.  I should look it up, but, eh, why put more effort into my work than the Twins do in theirs? 

For once, the starting pitcher lost the game all by hisself without any help from the bullpen, which was a nice change.  Scott Baker surrendered four runs over six innings, with most of the damage coming via a three-run bomb off of the bat of Miguel Cabrera in the third.  I hate that guy.  Jim Thome left the game with a strained quadricep and may or may not end up on the DL.  Also, Alexi Casilla tried to bunt for a base hit with two strikes in the ninth.  Matt Tolbert was standing on first base.  There was one out.  His team was down by two runs.  Casilla, of course, struck out.  Justin Morneau was intentionally walked, then Michael Cuddyer hit a weak grounder to third.  And that, in a nutshell, is your 2011 Minnesota Twins.