Oh, It Could Be Worse

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I have been watching the Twins all season long and yet it never ceases to amaze me how horrible this team really is.  I mean, I knew they were bad, but good lord, the Twins are now 18 games out of first place in a division where the leader is outscoring its opponents by 5 runs.  Seriously, that is pathetic.  The AL Central is the only division in baseball where the leader doesn't have a positive run differential in the double-digits.  In fact, there are only two other teams in baseball with positive run differentials in the single-digits, and neither one are particularly close to contending:  the Blue Jays (+4, 15.5 games behind the Red Sox) and the Dodgers (+2, 12 games behind the Diamondbacks). 

Oh, but it gets better.  According to pythagorean win theorem, the Twins are actually bunch of overachievers.  They should really be 52-83, since they've scored 516 runs and allowed 665, but their 5-4 record in extra inning games and 23-23 record in one-run games suggests that they've somehow won four more games than they probably should have.  I thought it might be fun to see what our loser standings would look like if each team were performing according to its pythag, and the results were interesting:

The Twins might actually be the worst team in baseball, but it's too close to call at this point. The Twins are a bit worse than the Astros on offense, with a team OPS+ of 84, compared to Houston's 93.  The Astros have more power (.120 ISO compared to Minnesota's .112) and are slightly better at getting on base (.315 OBP versus the Twins' .306), but the Twins are a little better at actually running the bases.  Neither team can pitch particularly well; the Astros rack up more strikeouts (7.41 K/9 compared to Minny's 5.91), but the Twins issue fewer walks (3.08 BB/9 vs. the Astros' 3.50).  The Twins are also better at keeping the ball in the ballpark (9.6 HR/FB% compared to the Astros' 11.8), though that is probably to be expected since Target Field is rather cavernous.  When it comes to fielding, UZR gives Minnesota a distinct edge, -0.1 vs. -22.1, though plus/minus thinks they're nearly equally inept on defense, rating the Twins at -21 runs below average and Houston at -28.  Looking at wins above replacement, Houston is actually the better team, with a combined 19.6 fWAR and 12.7 rWAR while the Twins have been worth 15.8 fWAR and 11.3 rWAR. 

Good News, Everybody

The Minnesota Twins take pride in their defense

The Twins are just half a game out of third place!  The Orioles dropped both games of their double-header against the Yankees, extending their lead to 2.5 games over the fourth-place Twins.  Don't stop now boys, that second overall pick in the 2012 draft is within your reach.

Australian For Taters Mashed

A brief race to the bottom update:

• The Astros beat the Giants 4-3, in extra innings.  Not only does Houston have a commanding lead in the standings, but they have the worst run differential in all of baseball, at -157.  They've scored 511 runs this season, one more than the Twins.

• The Orioles split a double-header against the Yankees.  They won the first game 2-0, but dropped the night cap 8-3.  Baltimore might have the best chance at finishing with the second-worst record in baseball:  they face playoff-bound teams in 16 of their remaining 31 games. 

• The Royals beat the Indians 2-1.  The Royals actually have a better run differential than the Twins, and it isn't even close:   -63 to -144.  I will be very surprised if the Royals finish dead last in the AL Central. 

• The Twins beat the Tigers because Brad Penny sux.  Speaking of which, the Twins have now won two of their past ten games. 

• The Cubs, Mariners, and Padres all lost.  The Padres have now jumped into the race, since the Marlins had an off day.

The Twins didn't lose any ground to the Astros, but they now trail the second-place Orioles by two games.  There are now five teams within 2.5 games of second place, with the Cubs and Mariners trailing the team from Minnesota by just half a game.  Holy mother of crap, what an exciting uh, anti-pennant race! Go Twins!

Race to the Bottom Update

That is totally a thought bubble.  Shut up, you try to draw with a trackpad.

The Twins lost, but so did nearly every other team ahead of them in the standings.  Well, except the Orioles, whose game was postponed thanks to some nasty sh!t going down on the East Coast.  They were going to play the Yankees though, and A.J. Burnett wasn't pitching, so it's probably safe to assume they would have lost.  At this point, it might be unrealistic to expect the Twins to leapfrog the Astros in the race to the bottom, but the second overall pick in the 2012 draft is still within reach.  The hometown nine are trailing the Royals and the Orioles by a mere game and a half, so let's hope they don't screw up and start winning.

Rooting for the No. 1 Draft Pick

A crappy Paint job for a crappy team

Because if there is one thing that will salvage this stink bomb of a season, it will be snagging the top pick in the 2012 draft.  I've put a "race to the bottom" in the sidebar to track the Twins' progress in finishing the season with the worst record in baseball; if you would like to see the spreadsheet itself, just click on the image.  I'll try to update it daily, or failing that, as often as I can unless I have more important things to do.  As you can see, they have a ways to go to catch the Astros, but I have faith that our boys can do it. 

And Things Just Keep Getting Better

Will the Twins finish with triple digit losses for the first time since 1982?  With only 32 games to go, I am sure our boys are up to the challenge, especially now:

• Jim Thome, traded. Welp, there goes the only reason to watch the Twins this season. Just kidding, I'll still watch, but I'm going to think about products I might like to purchase.  Ohh...mmm...oh, I don't have that!  I would have preferred Gentleman Jim go to the Phillies, or any other team that had a legitimate shot at winning a World Series, but the waiver wire system made that all but impossible. Eh, at least he didn't go to the White Sox, and the Twins will probably get something decent useful breathing out of the deal. 

• Francisco Liriano be hurtin':  As if the Twins didn't have enough pitchers on the DL, Liriano has been shelved with a sore shoulder.  It's not the first time he's been sidelined with shoulder problems, and it might explain why he's had so much trouble finding the plate this season.  Ugh, here's hoping another TJ surgery isn't in his future.  

I wish I was a doctor so I could write a scathing post about the Twins' training staff, a la Rany Jazayerli, but alas, I have only a rudimentary understanding of how the human body works.  The Twins have suffered more than their fair share of injuries this season, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Francisco Liriano, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Nick Blackburn, Alexi Casilla, among others, all missing significant time, but that may be due to bad luck more than incompetence on the part of the medical staff.  Players do often end up missing more time than the medical staff initially expects, and it is possible they may have misjudged the severity of Mauer's knee surgery, which they considered a minor procedure in the offseason; his bilateral leg weakness and season-long struggles at the plate may have been caused by pushing himself to come back too soon, though I'm not sure that is really the fault of the training staff.  However, they don't seem to have missed a major diagnosis; on the contrary, whenever an injured Twin sought a second opinion, the independent expert typically concurred with both the original diagnosis and the treatment plan.  I haven't found any tangible evidence in my research that the medical staff has been mismanaging injuries, but that doesn't mean they are doing a good job.  That is something the front office needs to sort out during the offseason.

Bizarro Twins Beat Bizarro Yanks 9-4

In some alternate universe somewhere, the Minnesota Twins beat the New York Yankees 9-4.  Francisco Liriano shut down the Yanks, while the lineup pounded out seven runs on five hits against A.J. Burnett.  In reality, however, it was Burnett who pitched a gem; he stifled the Twins' offense for seven innings, allowing one run on three hits while striking out six and walking three.  Derek Jeter hit two home runs off of Liriano, who was pulled after the Yankees batted around in the third inning.  Yep, typical Twins-Yankees game.

Seriously though, this Twins team scored nine runs against the New York Yankees. They drew seven walks.  Seven!  If that doesn't warrant an appearance by OMG cat, I don't know what does.



Oh, what the hell, I'll throw in surprised kitty too. Because he's adorable.

New Contest: Win A Copy of Baseball's Greatest Games Game 7 of the 1991 World Series

[UPDATE:  Congrats to Andrew of Twins Fan From Afar!  Sorry folks, this contest is now closed, but I will undoubtedly have more giveaways in the future.]

Good news if you missed out on the 1991 World Series DVD trivia contest, I have more goodies to give away.  You can win your own copy of this:

http://shop.history.com/baseballs-greatest-games-1991-world-series-game-7-dvd/detail.php?p=300740

That's right, you can re-live game 7 of the 1991 World Series, or experience it for the first time if you are not actually old enough to remember it.  If you have ever wondered why people seriously think Jack Morris belongs in the Hall of Fame, here's your chance to find out.  All you have to do is correctly identify which game this play is from (Hint:  it's from this season):

I am only looking for the date, you don't need to submit the opponent or anything else.  Email your answer to pickedoffatfirst@gmail.com by midnight on September 6th.  Good luck!

By the Numbers: Jim Thome's 600 Home Runs

Even Tigers fans agree

Jim Thome hit his 600th career home run last night.  He also hit a 2-run homer for number 599 earlier in the game, marking the 48th multi-home run game of his career.  It's been quite a career for Gentleman Jim, here's a brief look at of all those taters:

By team:

• Cleveland Indians:  334
• Philadelphia Phillies:  96
• Chicago White Sox: 134
• Minnesota Twins:  36

By position:

• 1B:  310
• 3B:  93
• DH: 194
• as a pinch-hitter:  4

By age:

• 20-30:  282
• 31-40:  318

In the postseason:

• ALDS:  8
• ALCS:  6
• World Series:  3

Against the AL Central:

• Detroit Tigers:  65
• Minnesota Twins:  57
• Kansas City Royals:  48
• Chicago White Sox:  43
• Cleveland Indians:  20

Against the rest of the American League:

• Boston Red Sox:  35
• Texas Rangers:  32
• Baltimore Orioles:  31
• Oakland Athletics:  31
• LAAAAA Angels:  28
• New York Yankees:  26
• Toronto Blue Jays:  21
• Tampa Bay Rays:  18
• Seattle Mariners:  17

And the National League:

• Milwaukee Brewers:  22
• St. Louis Cardinals:  18
• Atlanta Braves:  11
• New York Mets:  11
• Florida Marlins:  10
• Washington Nationals:  9
• Arizona Diamondbacks:  8
• Chicago Cubs:  8
• Cincinnati Reds:  8
• Houston Astros:  7
• Pittsburgh Pirates:  6
• Colorado Rockies:  3
• Los Angeles Dodgers:  3
• San Francisco Giants:  2
• Philadelphia Phillies:  1
• San Diego Padres:  1

Solo homers:  329
Two-run homers:  182
Three-run homers:  80
Grand Slams:  9

First half of the season:  333
Second half:  267

Home: 335
Away: 265

When he is ahead in the count: 288
When the count is even: 205
When he is behind in the count: 97

Clutch situations:

• RISP, with two outs:  65
• Late and close games:  75
• Tie games:  131

In wins: 407
In losses: 193

Rick Reed has given up the most career home runs to Thome, with 9; Roger Clemens (8) and Justin Verlander (7) round out the top three.  He has also been a thorn in the side of two of the toughest lefties in the league:  C. C. Sabathia (4) and Johan Santana (4). 

Delmon Gets Dealt

Here's something I never thought I would write:  the Twins managed to find a taker for Delmon Young.  In a move that came about ten months too late, the Twins shipped Young to Detroit for two warm bodies, one of which will be named later.   I don't know why the Tigers claimed Delmon; their bullpen is quite thin now that Al Alburquerque is out indefinitely with a concussion, and their outfield is already made up of a bunch of free-swingers with all the range of a telephone pole, but frankly I don't care.  It's nice to watch Del do this kind of thing for a team I don't like very much:

Something tells me the pitching staff probably likes this trade as much as I do.

Of course, Delmon also homered off of Francisco Liriano in his very first plate appearance as a Tiger.  I am kind of hoping he hits lots of homers over the next six weeks.  I doubt Dave Dombrowski could resist the urge to sign him to a contract extension in the neighborhood of 4-years and $48 million, and that would be awesome. 

You know what's depressing, though?  The Delmon Young trade was Bill Smith's first major trade as the general manager of the Twins, and none of those players are with the team anymore.  Brendan Harris was sent to Baltimore as part of the J. J. Hardy trade, and Jason Pridie was claimed off waivers by the Mets last year.  The jury is still obviously out on the return from the Young trade (the Tigers have until October 15th to send over the PBTNL), but Cole Nelson doesn't like anything too exciting.  The three combined provided 0.9 fWAR (0.9 rWAR) for the Twins.  The Rays, on the other hand, got 16.3 fWAR (8.0 rWAR) of value out of Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, then flipped them when their trade value was still pretty high for a decent haul of prospects: Cole Figueroa, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos, Adam Russell, Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer.  It's disappointing that Smith didn't move Young when his trade value was at its highest, but I don't really blame him for wanting to hang on to him, either.   The Twins don't have many good right-handed hitters in the lineup, and Young seemed to show some real improvement at the plate last season.  The Twins got a lot more than they should have for a potential non-tender candidate, and I guess that's something.

This trade, I think, signals that the Twins are going to make a strong push to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.  Not only did they clear up the logjam in the outfield, they freed up some payroll space:  Young has one more year of arbitration left and is due for a raise over his current $5.375 million salary.  The crop of free agent outfielders is pretty thin this year, and the Twins don't have any prospects with decent power close to being major league ready, so keeping Cuddles and Kubel around for a few more years isn't a terrible idea. 

Twinkie Defense: Not the Worst in Baseball, Actually

Shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka made a couple of errors in Friday's game, one of which proved costly when Shin-Soo Choo scored on a booted grounder.  He wasn't the only one to mess up in the field, though, as manager Ron Gardenhire lamented:

"We had one error, but it should've been four. Their scorekeeper is really boosting their averages. This is the Major Leagues and those balls are supposed to be caught. Those aren't base hits. Those are outs up here and I don't [care] what anybody says."

It's a familiar refrain for Twins fans this season.  The defense has committed 85 errors, the third-most in the American League and certainly way too many for a team that prides itself on playing good fundamental baseball.  However, while the fielders haven't been very good, they aren't as bad as one might think, either.  The Twins are actually toward the middle of the pack on defense according to most advanced metrics, posting a 3.1 UZR, and -0.4 UZR/150, though John Dewan's plus/minus isn't quite so bullish, pegging the Twins at -24.  Here's a breakdown of the team by position:

None of the defensive metrics measure catcher defense, but for what it's worth, Rene Rivera is leading the team in defensive runs saved, at +3.  Mauer is second at +1, while Drew Butera and Steve Holm have been largely unimpressive, at -3 and -1, respectively.  Rivera has been the most effective at throwing out baserunners, nailing 42% of potential thieves, but Mauer (32%) and Butera (31%) haven't exactly been slouches either.

Injuries have obviously been part of the problem.  Only Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Danny Valencia have played one position regularly, and Span missed about a month with a concussion.  Seven different players have logged at least 150 innings at first base, second base, and shortstop. Michael Cuddyer has essentially served as a one-man team, logging 484 defensive innings in right field, 336 at first base, and 140 at second base.  Joe Mauer has been forced to play out of position on a consistent basis for the first time in his career, playing 96 innings at first base.

The defense in general has bad, but the infield defense has been particularly weak this year.  Last season, the Twins boasted the best defensive infield in the American League, thanks to J. J. Hardy (8.1 UZR, +5 plus/minus), Orlando Hudson (9.8 UZR, +17 plus/minus), Danny Valencia (5.9 UZR, +2 plus/minus), and Justin Morneau (9.8 UZR, +9 plus/minus).   This year, they have one of the worst, with Nishioka and Valencia well below average, and Morneau and Casilla just barely above.  Valencia played some solid defense last year, but he had a reputation as a butcher in the field in the minors, and extended time at third base has left him exposed.  Valencia was also probably helped out a lot last season by Hardy, who could almost man the left side of the infield all by himself.

On the bright side, the outfield defense has vastly improved.  Delmon Young has been a pleasant surprise, putting up positive defensive numbers for the first time since coming to Minnesota in 2008.  Of course, it's possible that his improvement is simply a small-sample-size mirage, since he has a career -39.5 UZR and -29 plus/minus rating over 4043.0 defensive innings in left field.  He does seem to be catching up to more fly balls in the outfield, perhaps because he appears to be taking better routes, so it's also possible that Delmon is actually getting better in the field.  We will see if he continues to make progress in 2012.

However, the current pitching problems can't be blamed entirely on the defense.  The Twins' .297 BABIP is pretty close to the league average of .290, so it isn't as though they've been unlucky on balls in play falling in for hits.  When looking at stats that take defense into account, the staff as a whole isn't pitching all that well, with a 4.26 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.43 tERA, and 4.14 SIERA. Their K/BB ratio has declined from 2.74 in 2010 to 1.96 this year; they aren't missing bats, posting a K/9 rate of just 5.99, and they aren't demonstrating the impeccable command Twins pitchers are famous for, with a BB/9 rate of 3.06.  The pitching staff in general is having trouble finding the plate, and as a result, opposing hitters are just waiting until they get a good pitch to hit and driving it where the fielders ain't.  There isn't much the defense can do about that.

255

Greatest trade in Twins history?  Greatest trade in Twins history.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2011 Minnesota Twins

With the bases loaded and one out, Phil Dumatrait somehow fell down while trying to field a swinging bunt by David Ortiz, who otherwise would've been thrown out by a country mile.  The Red Sox scored what would turn out to be the winning run.  Now, in fairness, the winning run would've scored even if Dumatrait had managed to field the ball successfully, but this play kind of sums up everything that has gone wrong for the Twins this season.  A combination of bad luck, poor defense, and poor pitching and the Twins have allowed 563 runs this year, second only to the Orioles for the most in the AL.  I am working on a post about how atrocious the Twins' defense has really been this year, but first I have to study for a final in my summer class.

Meh: Sox Sweep Twins

I should be upset that the Twins got thoroughly embarrassed by a bitter division rival, especially one as inept as the 2011 White Sox, but I just can't muster any emotion other than apathy.  The Twins absolutely deserved to lose every one of these games.  They played like crap; with the exception of Carl Pavano, they pitched like crap; and they couldn't hit worth crap.  They allowed 18 runs to a team with a .308 wOBA.  The Red Sox are coming to town tomorrow night for a three-game series.  They have a .354 wOBA, the best in the American League.  Oh boy, I can't wait. 

Not baseball-related, but because this season has been so dismal and we could all use a laugh, I present "I'm a Stupid Cat": a silly song featuring an adorable kitty and the liberal use of naughty words.  It's put out by the same guy who did the Cleveland Tourism videos, and it is hilarious.  He forgot to add "I'm gonna meow for 20 minutes straight at 3 am for no goddam reason" and "I'm going to sink my teeth into your ankle while you are holding a cup of scalding hot coffee", but otherwise it is spot-on.  Please to enjoy: 

Holy Cow, The White Sox Can Pitch

click to embiggen

That's right, the 2011 White Sox have some of the best pitching in all of baseball.  They're allowing an average of just 4.16 runs per game, good for sixth in the AL.  Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Sox pitchers have done a good job limiting home runs, allowing an average of 0.83 HR/9 innings and only 8.7% of their fly balls eventually leave the park.  They don't strike out that many batters and they don't have any starters with ERAs under 3.00; however, all but two of them have ERAs under 4.00.  What's more, those two, Gavin Floyd (4.56 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.88 K/BB) and Jake Peavy (5.13 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.56 K/BB), aren't exactly dead weight and appear to be under-performing according to their peripherals. The Sox bullpen has been lights-out, with a 3.69 ERA (15th in MLB), 3.50 FIP (7th), 3.93 tERA (12th), and 2.44 K/BB (5th).  They boast three relievers with ERAs under 3.00:  Sergio Santos (2.98), Chris Sale (2.88), and Jesse Crain (2.66).  The Sox made a couple of moves in the offseason to bolster their pitching staff that are now paying huge dividends:  inking Philip Humber to a minor-league deal, dumping Bobby Jenks, and signing Crain*. Humber been a pleasant surprise in the rotation, with a 3.56 ERA and 2.50 K/BB ratio; Crain has quietly emerged as one of the top right-handed relievers in the league, while Jenks has a 6.32 ERA in 15.2 innings with the other Sox.  

* *sigh*, miss u Jesse

So it comes as a bit of a surprise that the Hosers have been outscored by thirty runs.  Even if you take away the 18-7 thumping at the hands of the Yankees on Wednesday, they still have a -19 run differential.  That isn't the worst in the division; both the Twins (-94) and the Royals (-44) are worse, and it might not even kill them, since neither Detroit (-7) nor Cleveland (-7) are in the black.  Well, maybe the Hosers' negative run differential isn't such a surprise when you look at their offense.  They have two above-average hitters in their lineup:  Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin, with OPS+s of 153 and 129, respectively.  They have six players with an OPS+ less than 100, three of which have an OPS+ less than 70:  Brent Morel (56), Adam Dunn (64), and Alex Rios (49), the latter combining for 804 plate appearances and $24 million in salary.  The Sox are averaging 3.9 runs per game; that's about on par with the offensively inept Minnesota Twins (3.95) who, unlike the Sox, play in a tough pitchers' park and lost four of their best hitters for significant portions of the season.

The Pale Hosers are currently six games below .500, and yet they sit just 6.5 games out of first and are still legitimate contenders for a postseason berth. They are still pretty much a long shot;  they would have to win at least 29 of their 52 remaining games just to reach 81 wins, and that might not even be enough to clinch the division.  However, it wouldn't be the first time they've overcome a mediocre offense with good pitching; they did it as recently as 2005, when they won the World Series thanks to a pitching staff with a 4.12 FIP.  Anything is possible, especially in the AL Central.